The market is downgraded in the first quarter and expects domestic zinc fundamentals to improve [selected SMM Zinc Weekly report]

Published: Jan 08, 2022 09:16 (GMT+8)

Source: SMM

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[selection of SMM Zinc Weekly report: the market is down in the first quarter and expected to improve domestic zinc fundamentals] in terms of Shanghai zinc, there have been some changes in the recent market trading logic, which is discussed in two aspects. One is the performance of the inventory, after entering New Year's Day, the inventory has not seen a large accumulation for a long time, at the same time, the inventory in Shanghai has reached less than 20,000 tons, which also reflects that the current consumption is better than the market expectation; at the same time, after the over-expected decline in refined zinc production in December and the production scheduling in January-February, the market downgraded the accumulation forecast for the first quarter, and the fundamentals gave zinc price support.

The following is an excerpt from the weekly report of the zinc industry chain:

In terms of Shanghai zinc, there have been some changes in the logic of market trading recently, which is discussed in two aspects. One is the performance of the inventory, after entering New Year's Day, the inventory has not seen a large accumulation for a long time, at the same time, the inventory in Shanghai has reached less than 20,000 tons, which also reflects that the current consumption is better than the market expectation; at the same time, after the over-expected decline in refined zinc production in December and the production scheduling in January-February, the market downgraded the accumulation forecast for the first quarter, and the fundamentals gave zinc price support. On the other hand, it lies in the internal and external price parity. Due to the continuous decline of the current Hulun ratio, the loss of imported zinc concentrate purchased by domestic smelters has expanded. In this case, smelters stop buying imported mines and grab domestic mines instead, domestic processing fees continue to fall, smelter costs continue to rise, and there is the possibility that mines will lead to more smelters to reduce and control production. Therefore, on the whole, the fundamental view of the market for domestic zinc is also improving, and there is an opportunity for upward repair in the price comparison. It is estimated that Shanghai zinc will run at 24000 million yuan / ton, and the domestic spot price of Shanghai zinc will rise 120 yuan to 190 yuan / ton for 02 contract.

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Catalogue of "SMM Zinc Industry chain Weekly report" in this issue

Main points of this weekly report: processing fees, import profit and loss inventory

Hot spot of zinc industry: China's refined zinc production in December exceeded expectations and reduced its annual output by 6.086 million tons in 2021.

Zinc concentrate market: zinc ore processing fees in southwest China have been reduced month-on-month this week.

Refinery dynamics

Imported zinc market

Zinc City predicts next week: short-term focus on US-Russian talks and non-farm data domestic fundamentals are expected to improve

Review of Zinc City

Zinc plating

Die casting zinc alloy

Zinc oxide

[China Zinc Industry chain High-end report] SMM exclusive monthly survey of zinc industry chain report, covering from zinc concentrate to zinc primary consumer operating rate and supply and demand profile. And announce the exclusive monthly zinc concentrate, refined zinc balance, continue to track the industry entity enterprises, update data. And through the supply and demand situation and data model to make a simple prediction of the future trend of zinc. "View details

Weekly report zinc price price forecast output inventory

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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