The Chinese market fully surpasses the international market lithium iron phosphate in 2022 will also be a "big change"?

In November, China's new energy vehicle market continued to "grow by leaps and bounds". The monthly sales of new energy vehicles reached 450000, and the sales of new energy vehicles reached a new record of 2.99 million from January to November. In terms of power batteries, data from the Power Battery Application Branch showed that in November, the installed capacity of power batteries in China reached a new high of 21.2GWh, with the installed capacity reaching 134.3 GWH from January to November, an increase of 164.4 percent over the same period last year. Considering that the market is better in December, the annual installed capacity of 150GWh in 2021 is certain, or even to break through 155GWh.

In terms of the types of matching vehicles, the installed capacity of passenger cars in the Chinese market in November 2021 is about 18.2 GWhWH. From January to November, the installed capacity of passenger cars is about 119.1 GWH. The number of passenger cars in November is only 1.5GWh.In the first 11 months, it is 7.2GWh.In November, the installed capacity of special purpose vehicles is 1.5GWh.In the first 11 months, it is 8GWh.

It is worth noting that recent data released by foreign institutions show that the number of power batteries installed in passenger cars worldwide from January to November 2021 is about 250.8GWh. If you subtract the 119.1GWh of passenger cars for the Chinese market, it means that the installed capacity of the non-Chinese market will reach 131.7GWh from January to November 2021.

In terms of battery shape, in the Chinese market from January to November 2021, the installed capacity of square batteries is about 118.1 GWH, accounting for 87.9%; the installed capacity of soft package batteries is about 8.4 GWH, accounting for 6.2%; and the installed capacity of cylindrical batteries is about 7.9 GWH, accounting for 5.9%.

In terms of battery types, lithium iron phosphate has been in the lead since August 2021, when lithium iron phosphate in the Chinese market exceeded the installed capacity of ternary batteries. From January to November, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate is about 67.38GWH, accounting for about 50.2%, while the installed capacity of ternary batteries in the same period is 66.73GWH, accounting for 49.7%. Lithium iron phosphate batteries in the Chinese market have fully surpassed ternary batteries, and this trend should not change in December.

December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Circular on the Financial subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy vehicles in 2022 (hereinafter referred to as "the notice") and the 2022 New Energy vehicle Promotion subsidy Program (hereinafter referred to as "the Program").

According to the notice, in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021; vehicles that meet the requirements in urban public transport, road passenger transport, rental (including ride-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express delivery, civil aviation airports and the official fields of party and government organs will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021.

Subsidies fall back again, and the cost pressure on car companies is also expected to increase. Considering the economy of lithium iron phosphate, the overall installed proportion of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be higher than that of ternary batteries in 2022.

In addition, according to battery China, including Yiwei Lithium Energy, Honeycomb Energy, China Chuangxin Airlines and other head battery companies, lithium iron phosphate battery capacity for passenger cars will also be released in 2022. As more leading enterprises join or even expand lithium iron phosphate battery shipments, it is expected that the proportion of lithium iron phosphate installed will continue to increase in 2022, and the gap between ternary batteries and it will further widen.

Not only that, 2022 is also expected to be a key year for the introduction of lithium iron phosphate in the international market. Previously, including Volkswagen, Tesla, Daimler, Ford, Hyundai and other international car companies have said or have begun to introduce lithium iron phosphate batteries, while LG new energy, SK on and other also announced the layout of lithium iron phosphate, it is expected that starting from 2022, the installed capacity and market share of lithium iron phosphate in the international market will increase rapidly.

In addition, lithium iron phosphate batteries produced by Chinese battery companies, including Ningde Times, Fudi Battery and Guoxuan Tech, have also begun to support international car companies one after another, which will further promote the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries installed in the international market.

According to the ranking of installed capacity, the TOP10 of the Chinese market in November 2021 are Ningde Times, Fudi Battery, China New Airlines, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Honeycomb Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Tafel, Funeng Technology, Xin Wanda and Lishen batteries.

From January to November 2021, the installed TOP15 in the Chinese market are Ningde Times, Fudi Battery, China New Airlines, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, LG New Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Honeycomb Energy, Tafel, Ripu Energy, Funeng Technology, Jiewei Power, Lishen Battery, Penghui Energy, Xin Wanda and Duofu. Among them, the market share of TOP10 reached 92.1% and the market share of top 15 reached 96.2%.

In terms of market share, Ningde era still outshines others, occupying more than half of the market share, accounting for 51.7%;

Fudi batteries benefited from the explosion of BYD cars in 2021, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from 2020. According to the latest figures released by BYD, its sales of new energy vehicles reached 594000 in 2021, an increase of 231.6 per cent year-on-year. At the same time, it also provides batteries for Hongqi, Lantu, Cyrus, Changan Ford and other car companies.

AVIC Lithium's market share is about 5.2% in 2020, 5.4% in January-November 2021, 4.7% in 2020 and 5.2% in the first 11 months of 2021.

The market share of Yiwei Lithium Energy and Honeycomb Energy has also increased to varying degrees. Honeycomb Energy, which had a market share of just 0.8 per cent last year, has doubled to 1.6 per cent this year.

It is worth mentioning that compared with the same period last year, Xinwangda's power battery installation grew the fastest among TOP15 from January to November 2021, reaching 1304.2%, which also shows that its power battery began to gradually reduce volume, and customer development has also made rapid progress.