Non-ferrous metals: overseas aluminum plants cut production to boost aluminum prices and lithium prices continue to rise [institutional review]

Non-ferrous metals outperformed the market this week, up 3.19%. Among the sub-plates, the top three increases were other rare and small metal plates, magnetic material plates, and new metal material plate III, with increases of 5.17%, 4.65% and 4.55%, respectively. In addition, the biggest decline was in the aluminum plate, which fell by 0.64%.

Basic metal

The overall cash market for base metals this week is relatively strong. Futures market: LME copper, tin, nickel, rose 1.17%, 1.00%, 3.73% compared with the same period last week; aluminum, zinc, lead fell 0.32%, 0.24%, 1.38% compared with the same period last week. Domestic spot market: copper, aluminum, nickel and tin rose by 0.04%, 1.39%, 2.59% and 0.62% respectively, while zinc and lead fell by 0.92% and 0.65% compared with last week. Copper: copper prices have risen slightly this week. On the supply side, copper concentrate supply is expected to be repaired, copper production continues to grow, and LasBambas Copper Mine in Peru has reached an agreement with the local community to resume mine operations this week. In addition, the volume of customs clearance at many ports in Inner Mongolia has been gradually restored. On the demand side, the impact of power restriction policy is limited, the operating rate of processing enterprises is gradually increasing, while near the off-season of pre-festival demand, the downstream purchasing intention is relatively weak. As of Friday, SHFE copper stocks stood at about 38200 tons, up 40.52 per cent from the same period last week. Aluminum: aluminum prices are on an upward trend this week, up 1.39% from the same period last week. Europe's energy crisis is simmering and supply continues to tighten. The cost of natural gas and electricity in Europe continues to rise, pushing up the cost of overseas electrolytic aluminum, and a number of local aluminum plants plan to reduce or stop production, which is expected to affect the production capacity of more than 300000 tons of electrolytic aluminum. In terms of domestic supply, Yunnan Duodi aluminum plant shows signs of resuming production, but it is difficult to see a large-scale increase in the short term. In terms of demand, the domestic downstream has a strong willingness to replenish inventory at the end of the year. On the inventory side, SHFE aluminium stocks stood at 323600 tonnes as of Friday, down 1.71 per cent from the same period last week. Suggested attention: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd., Mingtai Aluminum Co., Ltd.

New energy metal

The price of new energy metals is more divergent this week. Cobalt: cobalt prices have risen steadily this week. As of Friday, the spot cobalt price in the Yangtze River was 495000 yuan / ton, up 1.02% from last week. The price of cobalt salt showed an upward trend as a whole, with cobalt sulfate at 102000 yuan / ton, up 1.98% from last week, and cobalt tetroxide at 393500 yuan / ton, up 2.88% from last week. Overseas transportation is restricted, and the shortage of cobalt raw materials continues. The cobalt salt market has warmed up, the trading volume of inquiry orders has increased, the epidemic situation in Zhejiang has been alleviated, and downstream manufacturers have gradually resumed production. With the advent of the Spring Festival at the end of the year, the stock volume of the root terminal may increase, and cobalt prices are expected to rise slightly. Lithium: the lithium salt market has maintained a stable operation this week, and the price of lithium salt has risen. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 260000 yuan / ton, up 8.33% from the same period last week; the price of lithium hydroxide was 215500 yuan / ton, up 6.42% from the same period last week. The stock in advance of the trade festival is basically completed, and the market trading volume near the Spring Festival has decreased, and the high lithium price is expected to maintain a stable operation. It is suggested to focus on: Huayou Cobalt Industry and Hanrui Cobalt Industry, which are the targets of the integrated layout of cobalt industry; Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Tianqi Lithium Industry, the leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources; Salt Lake Lithium related targets: salt Lake shares, Tibet Everest, Tibet Mining, medium Mine Resources; Lithium Mica related targets: Yongxing Materials, Jiangdian Special Machinery; spodumene related targets: Sichuan Energy Power.

Precious metal

The precious metals as a whole fluctuated upwards this week. Gold: as of Friday, COMEX gold was at $1830.5 an ounce, up 1.13% from last week; spot gold in London was $1805.9 an ounce, up 1.11% from last week. Silver: COMEX silver price is $23.36 / oz, up 1.94% from last week; spot silver price in London is $22.77 / oz, up 0.44%. High inflation, the Federal Reserve to reduce the size of bond purchases and the global novel coronavirus variant virus rampant, short-term risk aversion to gold prices to a certain extent. Suggested attention: Chifeng Gold, Yintai Gold, Shengda Resources.

Risk hint

Demand is lower than expected; the European energy crisis continues to ferment; the risk of policy change.