The three major A-share indexes all fell and missed a good start, with salt lake lithium extraction, semiconductors, power equipment, energy storage and other sectors leading the decline [stock market close]

The market opened high and left low today, and all major indexes closed down and failed to get a good start to the new year, with the gem index leading the decline. On the disk, the traditional Chinese medicine plate remained strong in the afternoon. The digital currency sector continued to strengthen in the afternoon. In terms of decline, afternoon track stocks remained weak. Today's all-day index time-sharing chart yellow line and white line trend deviates, the size index differentiation is obvious, the subject stock performance is active, the two cities over 100 stocks up or up more than 10%, institutional stocks weak, down more than 9% of nearly 50 stocks. On the whole, individual stocks rose more and fell less today, with more than 3200 stocks rising. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today is 1.2664 trillion, which is 206.2 billion higher than that of the previous trading day, and the volume of the two markets is obviously larger today. On the disk, aquaculture, traditional Chinese medicine, metacosmos, digital currency and other plates rose in the forefront, while salt lake lithium extraction, CRO, semiconductors, power equipment, energy storage and other plates led the decline. By the close, the Prev index was down 0.2%, the Shenzhen index was down 0.44%, and the gem index was down 2.18%. Northbound funds have a net inflow of 460 million yuan throughout the day, of which Shanghai stocks have a net outflow of 941 million and Shenzhen stocks have a net inflow of 1.401 billion.

For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.

China International Capital Corporation pointed out that although the earnings growth of A-shares in 2022 may be dragged down by the upstream industry, which may not be excellent compared with 2021, compared with overseas, China's growth and policy cycle position is relatively favorable, "overseas policy withdrawal, growth deceleration, China's policy is loose, growth gradually bottomed out," and the turnaround of the epidemic is in sight. In terms of liquidity and valuation, China's policy is gradually loosening, the overall valuation is not high, and liquidity is supported; from a structural point of view, the trend of China's industrial upgrading is in the ascendant (including industrial independence, specialization and innovation, carbon neutralization, etc.). Consumption upgrading twists and turns ahead, more residential assets allocation of financial assets is booming, bringing more structural opportunities. We expect that the opportunities of A-shares may outweigh the risks in 2022, and the median annual return of equity public funds may be significantly higher than that of 2021 (the median return of equity funds and partial stock funds is 5.1% in 2021).

Citic Construction Investment believes that the recent adjustment of A-shares, the differentiation of long-term and short-end interest rates and the narrowing of term spreads more reflect economic recession expectations and concerns about the effects of broad credit policies. In this context, looking forward to the market situation in January this year, CITIC Construction Investment believes that the A-share market is expected to pick up, the overall performance should be stronger than in December last year, and the opportunity should be seized at the beginning of the year. The main reason for the market's recovery in January is that risk appetite and liquidity will improve at the beginning of the year. At present, we are mainly optimistic about three major directions.

First, it is optimistic about the opportunity for the transformation and revaluation of the traditional industry with low valuation: the undervalued sector has a higher performance-to-price ratio and is the first to be repaired at the initial stage of the current wide credit. The current domestic and external environment also requires a breakthrough from the transformation. Focus on: thermal power transformation new energy operation, consumer electronics transformation automotive electronics, computer media transformation meta universe, state-owned enterprise reform transformation and so on.

The second is the opportunity to complete the adjustment of hard science and technology. Out of concerns about performance or sustainability, the hard technology industry has recently shaken back, and the long-term performance-to-price ratio of the configuration has become increasingly prominent. If its high boom can be further confirmed after the beginning of the year, it is expected to end the adjustment and start a new round of market. Focus on: military industry, semiconductor materials, IGBT, photovoltaic and so on.

The third is the direction of financial priority. The national video conference on financial work calls for ten key tasks to be done in 2022. We believe that at the beginning of next year, the fiscal policy will focus on infrastructure (especially new infrastructure), green and low-carbon, and agriculture (food security and seed industry, etc.).

Huafu Securities pointed out that although the A-share environment in January 2022 is relatively complex, given the expectations of policy easing and spring restlessness, the market structural opportunities are still worth looking forward to. On the whole, we can adopt a relatively positive allocation strategy, focusing on the allocation of downstream consumer plates and TMT and other growth stocks with high growth expectations, continue to reduce cyclical stocks, and pay attention to plate style rotation. The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in the process of wave 5 after shock consolidation near 3600 points. If we take the Shanghai Composite Index's low of 3312 on July 28, 2021 as the starting point, it will enter the (3) wave upward phase from the low of 3448 on November 10, and the wave (5) operation at the end of December. However, 3700 points are the position of the three highs in February, September and December 2021, and it is inevitable that there will be a large shock near this position. If it can break through effectively, it is expected to hit the next target line of 3900 points.