A total of 97GW! How to distribute the blue ocean under the list of the first batch of scenic bases?

The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration recently issued a notice on issuing the first list of construction projects of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas.

According to the notice, the project involves Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Anhui, Hunan and other provinces and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps, with a total construction scale of 97.05GW.

The "Circular" requires all localities to follow the list, implement the 14th five-year Plan for the development of renewable energy, further implement the conditions for grid integration, and reasonably arrange the time sequence of construction according to the maturity of the project, one mature, one to start for a long time, not to engage in sports construction, in no hurry to form a "scale" of construction, and to award the license "National large-scale Wind Power Photovoltaic Base Project" after the completion of the project.

The notice makes it clear that the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration will rely on the existing monthly scheduling mechanism for the development and construction of renewable energy power generation projects to dispatch the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base projects on a monthly basis. coordinate and solve major problems in the process of project construction.

At the same time, on December 24, at the 2022 National Energy work Conference, Zhang Jianhua, secretary of the party leading group and director of the State Energy Administration, announced seven key tasks for next year's energy work.

It is clearly put forward that we should speed up the implementation of renewable energy substitution action, promote the nearby development and consumption of wind power in the eastern, central and southern regions, and actively promote the cluster development of offshore wind power and the base development of wind power in the "three north" areas. we should do a good job in the construction of wind power photovoltaic bases in desert, Gobi and desert, and launch the "Wind Control Action in thousands of Townships and villages" and "Light Action in thousands of households".

The total 97.05GW is much larger than the total installed capacity of Fengfeng since the beginning of this year.

On December 17, the National Energy Administration released national power industry statistics from January to November. By the end of November, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic is 34.83GW and that of wind power is 24.7GW. The sum of the two is 59.53GW. And the two ministries released the first batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base construction project list, a total of 97.05GW, will be far larger than the total installed capacity since the beginning of this year.

Start-up declaration of the second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base project

According to previous media reports, the National Energy Administration recently issued a notice on the organization's plan to include the country's second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas. The notice requires all provincial energy authorities to report the list of the second batch of new energy bases by December 15. It is understood that the second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects will focus on the construction of desert, Gobi and desert areas. At present, the enthusiasm of enterprises to declare is high, and the industry is optimistic about the demand for scenery installation in the next two years.

The industry is optimistic about the demand for scenic installation in the next two years.

At present, China's first phase of the project with an installed capacity of about 100 million kilowatts has been started in an orderly manner recently, mainly distributed in six provinces (regions) such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang. The National Energy Administration also said that in order to strengthen the protection of policies and measures, the "Energy sector carbon Peak implementation Plan", the 14th five-year Plan, the "Modern Energy system Plan", "opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for the green and low-carbon transformation of energy" and various sub-areas will be issued in 2022. Therefore, both the industry and investors are optimistic about the demand for installed equipment in the next two years.

Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the Photovoltaic Industry Association, said at the annual meeting of China's photovoltaic industry in 2021 that the installed capacity in 2022, driven by the huge reserves of domestic photovoltaic projects, may increase to more than 75GW.

The latest research report of CITIC Securities points out that the demand of the photovoltaic industry is expected to maintain rapid growth and improve quarter by quarter in 2022. It is expected that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic worldwide in 2022 is expected to reach 210GW, an increase of more than 30% over the same period last year, and the demand rhythm is expected to show a "spoon-shaped" state of improvement quarter by quarter. Among them, the domestic scenic base and the "whole county photovoltaic" project are accelerated, and the approval scale of the first phase of the domestic scenic base project exceeds that of 100GW, and the average annual installed capacity of the county photovoltaic base is expected to reach 40GW. Overseas market demand recovers strongly in the post-epidemic era and the trend of rising electricity prices, of which the European market and the American market are still the main installed forces, and the European market is expected to continue to exceed 20GW. Under the trend of policy encouragement and falling costs, the markets of other third World countries such as India and Latin America also occupy an important position.

Citic Securities said that because of the improvement in the margin of demand, and looking forward to next year's new installed capacity to maintain rapid growth compared with the same period last year. 1) the auxiliary materials and inverter links that benefit from the growth of the installed capacity of the industry and the small fluctuation of gross profit margin, mainly recommend Sunshine Power supply, Jinlang Technology, Foster, Follett, etc.; 2) Photovoltaic module integration leading enterprises with continuous improvement in profitability, mainly recommend Longji shares, etc., suggest to pay attention to Jingao Technology; 2) to a certain extent, there may be a shortage of supply and demand and equipment links that benefit from technological change, with emphasis on Tongwei shares, Daquan Energy, Jiejia Weichuang, Ottaway and so on.

Great Wall Securities believes that the global photovoltaic market in 2022 is expected to usher in a big year of demand driven by downward raw material prices and policy support. Global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to be 225GW in 2022, and domestic photovoltaic installed 110GW. The main industry chain, recommended in the silicon material supply and demand is tight profit is expected to maintain a high level of silicon leading Tongwei shares, Daquan energy, and so on.

In the field of wind power, Haitong Securities believes that with the national active policy on the development of wind power and the cost reduction effect brought about by the technological development of the wind power industry, China's wind power industry is expected to continue to develop at a high speed and its contribution to the national power supply continues to improve. The large-scale cost reduction effect of offshore wind turbines is significant, and the price of about 4x00 yuan / kw has basically become the industry benchmark price of offshore wind turbines. Investment suggestions focus on bearings, wind towers (Daijin heavy Industry, Tianshun Wind Energy), Sea Cable (Oriental Cable, Zhongtian Technology, sail Cable), carbon Fiber (Jilin Chemical Fiber, Guangwei compound material) and so on.

Anxin Securities believes that the new deployment of the 14th five-year Plan for offshore wind power in Guangdong Province will promote the large-scale development of offshore wind power projects, basically complete the planned offshore shallow water projects, promote the construction of provincial-administered offshore deepwater projects, and strive for the 10 million kilowatt offshore wind power base in eastern Guangdong to be incorporated into the relevant national planning and promote the construction of base projects. The investment in key projects will reach 90 billion yuan. Continue to recommend domestic fan machine leader Golden Wind Technology (2208.HK).