SMM survey: what kind of metal do you like most in 2022?
Citic Securities believes that the new global supply of lithium in 2022 can meet the growth of downstream demand and will not become a hard constraint on the development of the electric vehicle industry. It is expected that the configuration logic of the lithium plate will shift from "price increase" to "performance", which will become the trigger and the main driving force of the plate. Recommend enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate and high performance of lithium ore, recommend Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Shengxin Lithium Energy and Salt Lake shares, and suggest paying attention to Yongxing Materials and Koda Manufacturing.
The rapid rise in lithium prices has caused market panic, worried that lithium has become a bottleneck in the development of the electric vehicle industry.
As of December 24, 2021, the domestic spot market for lithium carbonate was quoted at 261500 yuan / ton, up 393% from the beginning of the year and 32% since December. Lithium prices continued to rise after breaking through the 2017 high, sparking concerns that lithium prices were too high to suppress downstream demand. At the same time, the market is worried that due to the "insufficient supply of lithium", the global production of electric vehicles and power batteries will be forced to decline in 2022, and the lithium sector has fallen sharply under the influence of the above factors.
The global lithium supply will increase by about 180000 tons in 2022, which can meet the growth of downstream demand.
We expect that the new capacity of lithium in 2022 will mainly come from: 1) the growth of Greenbushes and Pilbara lithium mines, and the expected additional supply is about 70,000 tons. LCE;2) Yabao and SQM expansion projects release capacity, Ganfeng lithium South American Salt Lake production is expected to increase supply by about 70,000 tons LCE;3) the increase in lithium resources projects in China is expected to bring about 40,000 tons of new supply. The above supply increments will release more certainty in 2022, which can meet the lithium raw materials needed for 300GWh batteries. If calculated on the basis of the 50kWh carrying capacity of a single car, it can be used to produce 6 million electric vehicles. Taking into account the high price, the supply side increment or higher than expected, the lithium supply increment in 2022 can meet the downstream demand growth.
Lithium is one of the most sustainable links in the power battery industry chain.
Different from other electric vehicle industry chain, lithium as an upstream resource, its production capacity growth is restricted by the development cycle of mineral resources. The global lithium resources project has entered a new round of activity in 2021, but in addition to the expansion of the original project, the capacity construction of new entrants began at the end of 2021 and is expected to be put into production by the end of 2022 at the earliest. The supply and demand pattern of lithium is expected to continue in 2022, which is expected to be the last species in the power battery industry chain to usher in the inflection point of prosperity.
Li's performance will be the trigger and main driving force for the subsequent rise of the lithium sector.
At present, the lithium price is high, the market's understanding of the price rise is gradually blunted, and the price continues to rise or has a reverse effect on the stock market. The quarterly average price of lithium carbonate in China in 2021 is 7.5,8.9,11.0 and 205000 yuan / ton, and the price in the fourth quarter is significantly higher than that in the previous three quarters. The peak of performance growth of related enterprises is expected to occur in the fourth quarter, driving corporate valuations back to a lower level. We expect that the lithium price will remain high in 2022, and the price inflection point will not appear in the short term. It is expected that the price center of lithium salt in 2022 will be significantly higher than that in 2021, leading to a substantial increase in the performance of lithium plate companies. The valuation advantage and allocation value of lithium plate in 2022 are higher.
"risk factors:
High lithium prices affect downstream demand; upstream supply is growing faster than expected.
"Investment strategy:
Market worries about the rapid rise in lithium prices and the "insufficient supply of lithium" have led to a significant adjustment in the lithium sector. we judge that the new global supply of lithium in 2022 can meet the growth of downstream demand, and lithium will not become a hard constraint on the development of the electric vehicle industry. Restricted by the mineral resources development cycle, we expect lithium to become one of the most sustainable links in the power battery industry chain. At the same time, it is expected that the catalyst and rising power of the plate will shift from "price increase" to "performance". Lithium plate has a strong valuation advantage and allocation value in 2022. We maintain the "stronger than the market" rating of the lithium industry, with emphasis on companies with high self-sufficiency and high performance, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Shengxin Lithium Energy and Salt Lake shares, and Yongxing Materials and Koda Manufacturing.
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