Prospects for commodities in 2022

SMM survey: what kind of metal do you like most in 2022?

Foreign news on December 20, commodities have outperformed other assets this year and will remain competitive in 2022.

The following is analysts' outlook for the commodity industry next year.

* Energy *

CREDIT SUISSE

"We expect oil prices to continue to be supported as there is further room for demand to catch up, but supply competition is likely to intensify as more non-OPEC crude oil production returns. As a result, spot prices are likely to moderate as 2022 progresses, and their performance is largely driven by rolling yields. "

KOEN STRAETMANS:, partner of KOEN STRAETMANS, NN INVESTMENT

"in the short term, there will still be some supply shortages in the coming months, so we are still optimistic about oil prices in winter. As we enter next year, I expect that there will be a considerable supply response. As a result, the market will turn to surplus in principle. "

* Precious metals *

JP MORGAN

"We expect real yields in the United States to rise significantly by the end of 2022, which drives our bearish expectations for gold and silver prices next year. We expect gold prices to fall steadily next year, averaging $1520 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 22. "

UBS

Precious metals continue to face multiple factors-recent tough remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell partly offset expectations of unexpected US inflation and stock market volatility caused by Omicron. Therefore, we think it is appropriate to remain neutral until the situation becomes clearer. "

* Industrial metals *

CITI

"We are still very optimistic about aluminum prices. In our basic situation, aluminum prices will rise by 40% and 50% in the next three years. The supply of aluminium is likely to be limited by decarbonization, so global growth has a great leverage on aluminium. "

MORGAN STANLEY

"with low inventories and relatively light positions, copper is likely to continue to fluctuate and be vulnerable to macro fluctuations, while Malaysia's new regulations are tightening the scrap metal market." We believe that as supply grows faster than demand, supply will turn into a surplus and prices will fall in the second half of 22. "