Not only the price of lithium and cobalt is also a 3-year high! How long can the cobalt bull market last after the cobalt salt jump caused by the epidemic?

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SMM December 16: recently, the "rising sound" has attracted countless upstream and downstream enterprises of lithium power, which is in the limelight under the background of the current good situation. While the price of lithium continues to rise, the prices of lithium salts such as battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also hit three-year highs one after another. But in fact, under the cover of its light, the performance of "Grandma Cobalt" is also eye-catching.

According to SMM historical prices, as of December 16, the average spot price of electrolytic cobalt was 482500 yuan / ton, up 208500 yuan / ton from the beginning of the year, or 76.1%, also breaking a three-year record high.

"Click to view the historical price of SMM Metals.

Originally, cobalt rose to a three-year high against the backdrop of explosive demand growth, epidemic disturbance and chaos in international shipping, and the price of cobalt salt also remained high. Recently, according to SMM research, with the re-strengthening of domestic epidemic prevention and control efforts, Zhejiang ternary materials and pioneering enterprises and two cobalt salt enterprises have officially stopped production on December 10th.

Among them, in terms of ternary precursors, due to the limited number of production plants of the head ternary manufacturers in Zhejiang, the overall impact of the epidemic in Zhejiang is not very serious. However, in terms of cobalt salt, the impact of the suspension of production of two cobalt salt enterprises in Zhejiang has been directly reflected in the spot side.

According to SMM research, after the news of the suspension of production on Friday, the market was bullish on cobalt salt, and the price of cobalt salt jumped for a time. On December 14, the average spot price of cobalt sulfate soared by 4000 yuan / ton, while the spot price of cobalt chloride jumped by 7000 yuan / ton. As of December 16, the average spot price of cobalt sulfate rose to 99000 yuan / ton, up 41500 yuan / ton or 72.17% from the beginning of the year. The average spot price of cobalt chloride rose to 122000 yuan / ton, an increase of 54750 yuan / ton or 81.4% over the beginning of the year. It should be noted that the prices of the above two cobalt salts have also refreshed their historical highs in the past three years, showing remarkable performance.

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Although cobalt salts have temporarily maintained stability after a rapid surge recently, according to SMM estimates, cobalt salts are in tight equilibrium in November, with a small accumulation of 62 gold tons, and after taking into account the factors of this epidemic, it is expected that cobalt salts will be removed in December. In addition, due to the continuous rise of overseas cobalt prices, the raw material costs of cobalt salt plants continue to rise, and the coefficient of recycled materials is high because of low supply. To sum up, SMM expects that cobalt salt prices will continue to show a slight upward trend, supported by the cost side and the supply and demand side. "View details

Hua an Securities also coincides with SMM's view, saying that the impact of the new mutant on the logistics supply of South Africa continues, cobalt resources supply tension is not reduced, cobalt prices are expected to maintain an upward trend.

Northeast Securities believes that this round of cobalt bull market is mainly driven by real demand, demand side, downstream battery material orders warm up before the Spring Festival downstream restocking period, Xineng car 2022 early or showing a "off-season is not light" situation, procurement demand is supported, while the supply side visible supply increment is insufficient, Mutanda resumption progress and future production planning is lower than expected, superimposed the deterioration of the epidemic in South Africa, leading to supply not equal to demand, cobalt prices or continue the upward trend.