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Compared with hot electric cars, electric two-wheelers seem to receive less attention.
But this is not the case. According to iResearch, the market size of electric two-wheelers in China will reach 104.6 billion yuan in 2020. The contribution to the scale growth of electric two-wheelers from 2021 to 2023 is mainly from the sales growth caused by the replacement of the new GB standard. It is estimated that the market size of electric two-wheelers will reach 144.3 billion yuan in 2022.
At the same time, with the approach of the transition period of the "new national standard" in various places, about 250 million two-wheeled electric vehicles exceeding the standard will face withdrawal and replacement from 2021. The transition period introduced by various places is mainly concentrated between 2021 and 2023. After the transition period, all vehicles exceeding the standard are not allowed to run on the road, which means that the replacement target of most of the stock should be completed within three years.
Thus it can be seen that the electric two-wheeler has ushered in a new tuyere and become a new hundreds of billions of blue ocean market.
Strive to create a base of hundreds of billions of new energy electric vehicles
However, the second round of travel this high-frequency, large user base, incremental market, lithium electrification currently accounts for less than 5%, lithium electrification has a long way to go. Based on the new national standard, market, performance-to-price ratio and other multi-wheel drive, the lead-to-lithium speed of two-wheeled electric vehicles is accelerated, coupled with the high demand for lithium batteries at the export of shared motorcycles and electric two-wheeled vehicles, the permeability of lithium batteries in the two-wheeled vehicle market will increase year by year, and the power lithium battery is currently accelerating to pry into this huge market.
On December 14, the official media reported that in recent years, the new energy electric vehicle industry in Guigang has made great progress.
Up to now, the China-ASEAN new energy electric vehicle production base has signed a contract to introduce nearly 100 electric vehicle enterprises, and more than 50 have been completed and put into production. Emma, Tailing, Luyuan, Oupai, immediately and other enterprises have entered one after another, forming an annual production capacity of 4 million two-wheeled electric vehicles, 500000 three-wheeled electric vehicles, and 5 million sets of spare parts, with a local matching rate of 80%, and a relatively perfect industrial chain has been established. Electric motors, plastic parts and other key components sell well all over the country and exported to ASEAN countries, which has launched the brand of "good trams made in Guigang".
It is estimated that in 2021, Guigang City will produce 2.6 million new energy electric vehicles, with a total output value of 6 billion yuan above scale, a total output value of more than 10 billion yuan of the whole industry chain, and a tax revenue of about 120 million yuan.
At the same time, Guigang City is vigorously cultivating new energy (smart) automobile and electric vehicle industry clusters around the goal of speeding up the construction of the core port city and strategic emerging industrial city of the Pearl River-Xijiang Economic Belt. Efforts will be made to create a national influential manufacturing base of hundreds of billions of yuan of new energy (smart) cars and electric vehicles.
Rapid development of lithium electricity market for two-wheeled vehicles
According to data released jointly by EVTank and Ivy Economic Research Institute, the total production of electric two-wheeled vehicles in China in 2020 was 48.34 million, an increase of 27.2% over the same period last year, and the cumulative social ownership has reached 340 million.
In 2021, it is almost certain that the output of electric two-wheelers in China will continue to develop at a high speed. Because the five companies with the largest market share in the electric two-wheeler industry, Yadi, Emma, Xinri, Tailing and small knife, have set sales or production targets for 2021 at the beginning of this year.
Yadi's sales target is 16 million vehicles, Emma's sales target is 16 million-18 million vehicles, Tailing's sales goal is to guarantee 8 million vehicles, the target is 10 million vehicles, and the sales target of knives is 10.01 million vehicles. Xinri, which did not publicly disclose its sales target, also pointed out its capacity layout of 10 million vehicles in 2021.
This is only the sales forecast of the electric two-wheeler head enterprise in 2021. If you add in the sales of Luyuan, Golden Arrow, immediate, Xinlei and other companies, the overall sales of China's electric two-wheelers are expected to double in 2021 compared with 2020!
Correspondingly, the demand for lithium batteries for electric two-wheelers will double!
Seize the hundreds of billions of grade market
Market data show that in 2019, when the new national standard was just implemented, China's shipments of lithium batteries for two-wheeled vehicles reached 5.6 GWH, an increase of 62% over the same period last year. In 2020, China's shipments of lithium batteries for electric two-wheeled vehicles went even further, reaching 10.7 GWH, an increase of 91.1% over the same period last year.
At the same time, public data show that the average daily number of two-wheel trips in China is more than 1 billion, including 700 million electric vehicles (including shared scooters). The number of electric bicycles and motorcycles has reached 400 million, with an annual increase of 46 million.
Based on the huge increment of electric two-wheelers and the further improvement of lithium electrochemical permeability, there have been more and more entrants in recent years, including vehicle companies, shared motorcycles, battery companies, and other fields.
Ningde era: as a power battery giant, Ningde era is impossible to "let go" of the two-round market. Its technical route for the two-wheeler market is large cylindrical batteries and intends to push it into the mini-passenger car market.
In addition, Ningde Times has joined hands with Hello to launch the Hello power exchange service and lay out two rounds of basic energy network; at the same time, it has once again held hands with Yadi to promote the cooperation project of changing electricity for two-wheeled vehicles in Zhaoqing.
ATL: in May this year, ATL subsidiary Poweramp Xinnengan Technology made a major debut with the electric short transportation lithium electric solution, and strongly announced its entry into the lithium electricity market for two-wheeled vehicles. At present, many well-known electric vehicle brands, such as Yadi Electric vehicle, No. 9 Robot, Suke and so on, are Xineng'an customers.
It is worth mentioning that on April 28th this year, Ningde Times teamed up with ATL to set up two joint ventures of battery and battery pack with 14 billion yuan to jointly expand the market for household energy storage and electric two-wheeled vehicles. And signed a cross-technology license agreement.
Yiwei Lithium Energy: it has previously publicly said that it will launch large cylindrical lithium iron phosphate batteries for the two-wheel electric vehicle market.
Bick Battery: in 2020, Bick Battery has provided hundreds of millions of cylindrical cells for two-round travel, with complete manufacturing capabilities from cells to power systems in light travel and intelligent terminal applications. In the field of electric bicycles, in-depth cooperation with Hello Chuxing, Didi, Meituan and so on.
Xing Heng Power: as a standard leader in the lithium battery industry for electric vehicles, Xing Heng Power is focusing on electric two-wheelers. To share, electric three, micro four, skateboards, new energy vehicles, household energy storage, energy-efficient vehicles, intelligent logistics vehicles, commercial robots, mobile outdoor power supply and other more scenarios.
Penghui Energy: on August 25, Penghui Energy released a full range of new products suitable for two-wheeled and three-wheeled electric vehicles. In terms of capacity planning for two-wheeled batteries (soft bags and large cylinders), Penghui Energy is deploying capacity upgrades in Zhuhai, Henan and Changzhou, with a planned production capacity of 3 million sets in 2021, 6.4 million sets in 2022 and 9 million sets in 2023.
In addition, Penghui Energy said earlier that the 40135 electrodeless ear battery is expected to be put into production by the end of September, and the production line is currently in the stage of trial production and commissioning. Customer orders are mainly in the areas of energy storage, low-speed electric vehicles and two-wheelers.
Iron Tower Energy: compared with other companies, Iron Tower Energy entered the field of power exchange earlier. It began to change electricity as early as two years ago, and now it has accumulated 500000 users, of which Pupu, Meituan and Shunfeng are its customers. At the same time, tower energy is also used for charging. C-terminal charging has more than 1 million ports and more than 5 million users.
Bo Liwei: in August this year, Boliwei announced that it would invest 3 billion yuan to build the R & D and production headquarters project of lithium battery and energy storage battery.
At present, Boliwei has become a qualified supplier of domestic well-known electric two-wheeler enterprises, such as Mavericks Electric, Yadi Holdings, Emma Technology, Xinri Stock, etc., and has successfully developed Qiulong Technology and other electric off-road motorcycle customers. at the same time, it has also established a stable cooperative relationship with well-known foreign customers of electric bicycles from Germany, Romania, Denmark and France.
In addition to enterprises with lithium battery "genes" to seize the 100 billion-class market of electric two-wheelers, there are also "outsiders" who are "eyeing covetously".
Wuling: on December 2, the first batch of Wuling industrial motorcycles officially went offline, and the offline product was the new GB model P20. With the launch of the first mass production model, Wuling electric vehicles have officially begun to layout channels. It is reported that the target for the first phase of Wuling electric vehicles is 1 million.
Foxconn: in June this year, foreign media reported that Foxconn and Gogoro had established a strategic technology and manufacturing partnership. Foxconn will accelerate Gogoro's global expansion by introducing new manufacturing capacity and scale to Gogoro battery switching technology and electric smart scooters.
In April, Gogoro announced a partnership with Hero MotoCorp, India's largest motorcycle maker, and in May, Gogoro announced a partnership with China's Cheung Kong Group and Yadi to develop new models with replaceable battery packs.
It is reported that Gogoro claims to have nearly 400000 customers and 2100 battery exchange stations, and currently carries out 270000 battery replacements a day, with a cumulative total of nearly 200 million battery replacements. Among them are both the company's own models and third-party electric motorcycles.
Summary
Electric two-wheeler, as a consumer product with high frequency, rigid demand and large user base, undoubtedly has a huge market. but today's two-wheeler market is no longer the original barbaric growth, the "new national standard" directly promotes the electric two-wheeler enterprises to pay attention to "lithium electrification + intelligence".
At the same time, consumers always pay most attention to the three core issues of "mileage, safety and price". Only by developing products that satisfy consumers based on the actual demand, can we "capture" hundreds of billions of blue ocean.
