SMM survey: what kind of metal do you like most in 2022?
According to the 2021 Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Development report released by Sinochem data on December 14 (hereinafter referred to as "the report"), under the scenario that the chip shortage will affect the effective improvement next year, it is judged that the new energy passenger vehicle market in 2022 will continue the rapid growth trend in 2021, and various influencing factors are accurately evaluated in combination with the new energy market forecasting system and model of Sinochem data. Sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to reach about 4.8 million in 2022, an increase of 66% over the same period last year. It is expected that in 2022, pure electric passenger car sales will reach 3.8 million, with a market share of 79.2%, and plug-in hybrid passenger car sales will be 1 million, with a market share of 20.8%.
Among them, the release of demand from non-restricted cities has accelerated since 2017, accounting for 70% of sales from January to November 2021, and the incremental contribution to new energy passenger vehicles has reached 75%, which has greatly promoted the progress of the overall market of new energy vehicles. it will also be the main driving force for the rapid development of the new energy market in the future. Taking the above factors into account, the report predicts that the sales of non-restricted urban new energy passenger vehicles will reach 3.55 million in 2022, accounting for 74% of the new energy passenger vehicles.
In addition, from the perspective of the price structure of new energy passenger vehicles, the sales volume in the past two years has shown a "dumbbell" structure, that is, the A00/A0 class models with sales focus on less than 100000 yuan and the Bamp C class models with more than 250000 yuan account for 30% and 31% of the sales from January to November 2021, respectively, much higher than the mature fuel vehicle market (22% and 21%, respectively), while the proportion in the range of 10-200000 yuan is only 31%. Far less than 50% of the mature fuel car market. The "report" predicts that in 2022, all price ranges are expected to achieve full growth, among which the high and low price ranges may continue to have excellent performance, bringing sustained increments; in addition, the range of 10-200000 yuan is expected to have a number of potential popular models in 2022, and their market potential may be accelerated.
According to the analysis of the report, the development of the new energy passenger vehicle market is jointly determined by the supply side, the demand side and the policy side, in which the supply side covers product supply, technology development, battery capacity, etc., and the demand side is dominated by user perception. the policy side covers double points, financial subsidies and infrastructure. From the perspective of next year's market, product supply and user awareness are the main driving forces to promote the rapid development of the market. in addition, the supply side has achieved breakthroughs in many aspects, including key technology improvement to alleviate user concerns and battery capacity improvement to ensure supporting supply. will promote terminal sales; The policy side changes from subsidized consumption to industry management, in which the double integral policy mainly plays a role in the supply side, the weakening effect of financial subsidies on the consumer side, the acceleration of infrastructure is good for medium-and long-term development, and the impact on terminal sales next year is limited.
In terms of batteries, the "report" shows that in recent years, China's new energy market has developed rapidly, and the industrial demand is strong, but it can meet the requirements of automobile companies for many performance indicators, such as energy density, safety, price, service life, and so on. only about 20 enterprises, such as Ningde era, BYD, Yiwei Lithium, AVIC Lithium, and so on, have produced power batteries on a large scale. The cumulative production capacity of these enterprises entering the supporting system accounts for less than 50% of the power battery industry, but they occupy more than 90% of the market share of new energy vehicles, resulting in a shortage of high-quality and high-end production capacity as a whole.
Driven by market development prospects and interests, mainstream power battery enterprises are constantly improving their technological level, while increasing capital, expanding production and building new factories through financing, self-financing and strategic cooperation. FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, Changan, Geely, Great Wall and other automobile enterprise groups also actively layout power battery production through joint ventures and cooperation, self-built factories and other means. According to the new production capacity and construction progress of power batteries announced so far, as factories have been completed and put into production and capacity climbing, in addition, some power battery enterprises with strong technical capacity and small scale will continue to enter the supporting system through the assessment and evaluation of parts suppliers of automobile enterprises, which will effectively make up for most of the power battery gaps in the new energy industry.
The report predicts that China's automobile power battery capacity is expected to reach 358 GWH in 2022. Combined with the average capacity utilization of 92% of power batteries and 65% of installed capacity, as well as the current calculation of the average amount of power per new energy vehicle equipped with power battery 40KWh, it will be able to support the production needs of about 5.4 million new energy vehicles in 2022, which will strongly support the development of the new energy passenger vehicle market next year.
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