SMM survey: what kind of metal do you like most in 2022?
Today, Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that due to lagging indicators, rising prices and other reasons, the installation forecast for this year has been lowered, from 55-65GW at the beginning of the year to 45-55GW.
However, at present, the reserve scale of China's photovoltaic market is strong. According to incomplete statistics, the configuration scale of photovoltaic power stations in various provinces (including some wind power) totaled 89.28GW this year, and it has been announced that the scale of large bases exceeds that of 60GW.
Driven by the huge reserves of domestic photovoltaic projects, the installed capacity is expected to exceed 75GW in 2022.
In addition, Soochow Securities and Zhongyuan Securities report also put forward a similar point of view, it is expected that next year will be a big year of photovoltaic installation, the industry will usher in explosive growth, new installed capacity or over 10GW, superimposed household use of more than 30GW, distributed photovoltaic proportion of more than 50%.
From this year's 45-55GW forecast to 75GW next year, what is the help behind the year-on-year increase in installed capacity or nearly 70%?
Judging from the recent news data, it may be related to three factors.
The top-level design points out the development path.
Recently, the Central Economic work Conference was held to put forward a number of guidelines for energy development. Specifically:
(1) "the energy consumption of new renewable energy and raw materials is not included in the energy consumption index", and "the energy use of raw materials is not included in the control of the total amount of energy consumption".
Follow-up photovoltaic upstream high energy consumption indicators are expected to be less difficult to obtain, conducive to production expansion, Soochow Securities also believes that enterprises will be more inclined to start distributed energy, or look for traceable renewable energy;
(2) "ensure energy supply".
Previously, due to the double control of energy consumption in the industry, the price of raw materials has risen sharply and the demand has been suppressed. Related problems are expected to improve in the future, and the risk of photovoltaic encounters with black swans under double control of energy consumption may be reduced.
(3) "create conditions to realize the transformation from double control of energy consumption to double control of carbon emissions" as soon as possible.
China International Capital Corporation is optimistic about photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises to promote "Solar for solar" to make substantial progress.
Silicon wafer starts the first shot of price reduction in the industrial chain.
Just half a month ago, the two leading silicon wafers, Longji and Central, both downgraded their quotations. Recent data show that the average price of single crystal M6/M10/G12 silicon wafers is about 8.55 yuan per chip, down 4.8% from the previous month.
Central shares revealed that the core factor of price reduction is to stimulate downstream market demand, calling on all links of the industrial chain to return to rationality. Dongfang Risheng, a downstream manufacturer, also said that the price reduction of silicon wafers will help reduce the cost of components, and at the same time, it can also promote better demand for installation.
However, the Monita think-tank report on the 12th also warned that the current silicon wafer trading price is close to the cost, the follow-up falling space is limited. However, there are still expectations that the price of silicon wafers will continue to decline in the downstream battery link. Therefore, the price reduction of silicon wafers alone may have a limited boost to the downstream market.
The second batch of large base projects are expected to establish follow-up guarantee.
At present, China's second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas have begun to declare, requiring that the project has been approved (for the record) and construction can start next year, which in principle can be connected to the grid within 2023 years. The scale of the single project is not less than 1 million kilowatts, and the submission time is before December 15.
Everbright Securities report on the 12th believes that this will provide a strong guarantee for the growth of China's new energy installation scale in 2023, superimposed by the United States, Germany and other places have introduced new energy favorable policies, continue to be optimistic about the global new photovoltaic installed scale to accelerate the release in the next few years.
