SMM survey: what kind of metal do you like most in 2022?
On December 14, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers held the 2022 China Automobile Market Development Forecast Summit and released the forecast report for next year.
Based on the cumulative sales of 23.489 million new cars in the Chinese automobile market from January to November this year, the China Automobile Association predicts that new car sales in the Chinese auto market this year will reach 26.1 million, an increase of 3.1 per cent over the same period last year. Of this total, passenger car sales were 21.3 million, up 5.6 per cent from the same period last year, while commercial vehicle sales were 4.8 million, down 6.4 per cent from the same period last year. The annual sales of new energy vehicles were 3.4 million, a 1.5-fold increase over the same period last year.
It is worth noting that in July this year, the China Automobile Association raised its annual sales target from 26.3 million to 27 million vehicles based on the trend of the auto market in the first half of the year, but it is clear that the latest annual forecast of the China Automobile Association is less than 27 million vehicles. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said in an analysis that this was mainly due to the aggravation of the shortage of automotive chips in the third quarter of this year. Chen Shihua said that from January to October this year, China's car market had a shortfall of about 750000 vehicles because of the chip supply shortage. in the next two months, the shortage of chips led to a reduction of 13-1.4 million vehicles in the Chinese car market this year.
Due to the agitation of the chip supply problem in the second half of the year, the monthly trend of China's auto market this year shows the characteristics of high before and low after, while the China Automobile Association predicts that the trend of the auto market next year will be on the contrary, showing the characteristics of low before and high after. Chen Shihua believes that the Winter Olympic Games, which will open in the first half of next year, will have a certain impact on the production of automobile-related enterprises in North China. In addition, the problem of chip supply will continue until next year, and the chip supply will reach a tight balance by the end of next year.
Apart from chips, there are many factors conducive to the development of the car market next year, such as the sustained and stable recovery of China's macro-economy in 2022, macro policies to promote automobile consumption, sustained improvement in epidemic prevention and control, strong overseas demand, gradual recovery of chip supply, and continuous improvement in the export of new energy vehicles.
Based on the above favorable conditions, the China Automobile Association predicts that China's new car sales will reach 27.5 million in 2022, an increase of 5.4 per cent over the same period last year. Of this total, passenger vehicle sales were 23 million, up 8 per cent from the same period last year; commercial vehicle sales were 4.5 million, down 6 per cent from the same period last year; and new energy vehicle sales would reach 5 million, up 47 per cent from the same period last year.
