On December 10, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released monthly data on power batteries for November 2021:
In November, the number of cars loaded with power batteries in China was 20.8 GWH, up 96.2% from the same period last year and 35.1% from the previous month. Among them, the total loading of ternary batteries was 9.2GWh, up 57.7 percent from the same period last year and 32.5 percent from the previous year, while lithium iron phosphate batteries totaled 11.6GWhs, up 145.3 percent from the same period last year and 37.2 percent from the previous year.
In that month, lithium iron phosphate batteries reversed the trend of month-on-month decline in loading capacity (11.6% month-on-month decline in October), and the loading of ternary batteries also continued the high growth in the past two months (up 15% and 13.5% month-on-month in September and October, respectively).
In terms of output, the monthly output of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries both achieved double increases compared with the previous month: in November, China's power battery output totaled 28.2 GWH, an increase of 121.8 percent over the same period last year, and an increase of 12.4 percent from the previous month. Among them, the output of ternary batteries was 10.4 GWH, accounting for 36.8% of the total output, up 42.6% from the same period last year and 12.9% from the previous year; and the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 17.8 GWH, accounting for 63.0% of the total output, up 229.2% from the same period last year and 12.0% from the previous year.
Raw material manufacturers are expected to rise in both quantity and price.
Since November, the domestic new energy vehicle market has been extremely hot, and the sales of major car companies have increased significantly. Recently released data show that Xiaopeng, ideal, Lulai, Nezha four new energy vehicle companies delivered more than 10,000 new energy vehicles a month, other car companies also handed over record-breaking sales data.
The sales of new energy vehicles remain high, and the demand for power batteries is rising. With the rapid expansion of the production capacity of power battery manufacturers and lithium battery manufacturers, the control of upstream raw materials has been put on the agenda. Upstream raw material manufacturers are expected to usher in a large number of orders.
Recently, Dangsheng Technology has announced a number of long orders, including Huayou Cobalt Industry, Zhongwei shares, Weilan New Energy, to ensure the supply of precursors and solid-state lithium materials, and Funeng Technology has also announced that it has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Huayou Cobalt. 161500 tons of ternary precursors will be purchased from Huayou Cobalt in the next five years.
On the other hand, the main raw materials are still "rising". SMM spot prices show that the domestic lithium iron phosphate market continues to rise and rose again today by 1000 yuan / ton. At present, the market price of dynamic lithium iron phosphate reaches 92000 yuan / ton, a new high in three years.
Looking at the upstream of ternary batteries, from the beginning of the year to the end of November, the price of cobalt metal in the international market has risen by 102%, and the price of raw materials has also risen by 86% in the same period. Cao Dongqiang, chairman of a Nickel and Cobalt Materials Co., Ltd in Shanghai, said that they mainly import cobalt raw materials from South Africa, but recently, affected by the mysterious Korong mutant strain, 30 to 40 percent of the local cobalt raw material suppliers have 1-2 month delivery delays, and the current inventory of cobalt raw materials is not enough to support them to achieve full production.
Guotai Junan Securities issued a non-ferrous metals research report that considering that large electric carbon production plants were overhauled in December and January, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise in the future, and the current optimal target is the leading enterprises with resource security and deterministic production, including Tianqi lithium industry, Ganfeng lithium industry, Yongxing materials and so on. In view of the strong demand in Europe and the United States, cobalt inventory will continue to be consumed, and the price of cobalt plate is expected to pick up by the end of the year. Cobalt companies are expected to rise to the downstream manufacturing industry of Dianxin, forming a cost advantage of cobalt-nickel-precursor-ternary integration and strengthening competitive barriers. Beneficiary companies include Huayou Cobalt Industry, Hanrui Cobalt Industry, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry and Greenmei.
