Battery Network learned from the Lithium Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Association that according to customs statistics, from January to October 2021, China's import and export of lithium products are as follows: lithium concentrate import of 1.73 million tons; lithium carbonate import of 69700 tons, export volume of 6800 tons, net import of 62900 tons; lithium hydroxide import volume of 3100 tons, export volume of 60000 tons, net export volume of 56900 tons.
From January to October 2021, the import of lithium concentrate, the net import of lithium carbonate and the net export of lithium hydroxide have all exceeded the whole year of 2020. Since the beginning of this year, there has been a structural shortage of upstream lithium resources driven by domestic and foreign demand. At present, mature lithium resources development projects are mainly concentrated in spodumene mines in Western Australia, salt lakes in South America, as well as domestic salt lakes, spodumene mines and mica lithium extraction projects. China needs to speed up the development process of local lithium resources and improve the self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources.
Recently, Wu Huayu, chief analyst of Guotai Junan Nonferrous, said that the explosive development of electric vehicles and energy storage has driven the rapid growth of the lithium-cobalt-nickel industry. The lithium-cobalt-nickel industry has a compound growth rate of 35%, 13% and 8% in the next five years, coruscating new vitality. Until 2023, the supply and demand of the lithium industry is still in a "hard shortage", and the lithium salt and lithium mine is out of stock. The price of lithium concentrate is at an all-time high, and lithium ore is still the most scarce area. The lithium industry will be more scarce in 2022 than in 2021, and lithium prices will continue to make history after breaking through their previous highs. From 2022 to 2025, the main contradiction in the lithium industry is the contradiction between the unbalanced and inadequate development of lithium resources and the growing global demand for lithium power.
Citic Construction Investment Securities estimates that by 2025, global power battery shipments are expected to be about 1000GWH. Based on this calculation, the global lithium demand for power batteries in 2025 will be about 680000 tons of LCE. In addition to lithium consumption driven by the sustained growth of new energy vehicles, the global consumption of energy storage batteries and small power batteries is also growing considerably. By 2025, shipments are expected to grow at an average annual compound growth rate of more than 30 per cent, while lithium demand in traditional industries will maintain a growth rate of 2 per cent. Based on the calculation of lithium demand in the next five years, global lithium demand may reach 1.14 million tons of LCE, with an average annual compound growth rate of 25 per cent by 2025.
Under the tight situation of supply and demand, the price of lithium concentrate has increased significantly. On December 2nd, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% Jing CIF China) reached $1900 per tonne, up more than 150% since August, according to SMM.
In addition, Battery Network noted that Pilbara, the main Australian lithium mining company, held three spodumene concentrate auctions this year, and the auction prices were much higher than the current concentrate market prices. Of these, 5.5 per cent of the lithium concentrate sold at the third concentrate auction on October 26th was sold FOB Hedland at US $2350 per tonne, or about US $2629 per tonne FOB (6 per cent CIF China), far exceeding the 2016-2017 high lithium ore price.
Huachuang Securities believes that the price of lithium concentrate will continue to rise sharply. Due to the decrease in salt lake production in the fourth quarter and the influence of downstream manufacturers' stock before the end of the year, the ex-factory price of lithium salt is expected to rise again. In the medium term, the upstream lithium mine development cycle is long, and the supply is expected to be difficult to change in the short term. Downstream electric vehicles and energy storage have accounted for more than 60% of lithium demand. With the high growth of downstream demand, lithium prices are expected to rise again under the tight balance of supply and demand.
The pace of upstream lithium resource expansion is relatively slow, the new supply is difficult to match the rapidly growing demand for lithium batteries, superimposed by the rise in lithium concentrate prices, forcing the industrial chain enterprises to expand production and speed up.
(Australia's Jadar Resources (Jadar Resources Limited,ASX:JDR) announced the signing of a non-binding Memorandum of understanding (MOU) on strategic cooperation with Yahwa International Investment and Development Co., Ltd. on a global joint venture to acquire and develop lithium ore projects and supply spodumene concentrates to Yahhua.
On December 1st, Ganfeng Lithium (002460) announced that Firefinch, the company's partner in the overseas acquisition project, is considering the expansion of the second phase of the Goulamina spodumene project, which will increase production capacity by 75%, making the project one of the largest spodumene producers in the world. According to the previous announcement of Ganfeng Lithium Industry, the Goulamina spodumene mine has been explored and determined + indicated + estimated resources are 108.5 million tons of raw ore and 1.57 million tons of lithium oxide resources.
On November 24th, China Mineral Resources (002738) said on the investor interactive platform that the spodumene mining and separation system with an annual capacity of 120000 tons / year at the company's Canadian TANCO mine was officially put into operation on October 15, 2021, and it is expected that spodumene concentrate will be shipped back to China by the end of the year. With the global epidemic under control, overseas exploration business is expected to improve next year and the year after next.
