Citic Securities: the next tuyere of the new lithium salt LiFSI lithium power mid-stream material

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A few days ago, Citic Securities said that LiFSI, as a solute lithium salt of electrolyte, has the advantages of high conductivity, high chemical stability and high thermal stability, and is more in line with the development direction of lithium battery with high performance, wide temperature and high safety in the future, and is the most likely to partially replace LiPF6 in the next generation of lithium battery lithium salt.

After nearly 10 years of process exploration, the process route selection of LiFSI by the world's leading suppliers has gradually come to an end. Citic Securities expects that LiFSI will gradually enter the stage of industrial introduction and demand explosion in the next five years, and the global LiFSI demand is expected to reach 129100 tons in 2025, with a market space of 300-40 billion yuan, with broad prospects for development.

LiFSI has excellent performance and is the best choice for the new generation of electrolyte lithium salt.

As the core part of the electrolyte, solute lithium salt determines the performance of the battery to a great extent. At present, the low-cost inorganic lithium salt lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) occupies a dominant position in the market, but it is gradually unable to keep up with the development of lithium batteries because of its unstable chemical properties and serious lack of efficiency at low temperature. LiFSI has the advantages of high ionic conductivity, high electrochemical stability and high thermal stability. Although it can corrode the aluminum collector, the deficiency can be solved completely by additives. The electrolyte with LiFSI as lithium salt can better meet the development needs of high energy density and wide working temperature of batteries in the future, and is expected to be the best choice to replace LiPF6.

Technological progress continues to promote cost reduction, SOCl-chlorosulfonic acid process is expected to become the mainstream process, it is expected that the relatively complex synthesis process will lead to the future LiFSI industry pattern is likely to be oligopoly. The overall idea of LiFSI synthesis is similar, but there are differences in details. At present, the steps of LiFSI synthesis are dichlorosulfonate imine (HClSI) synthesis, fluorination and lithiation (the first two steps can also be completed by thioyl chloride method). The LiFSI process barrier mainly lies in the conversion rate of raw materials and the limited yield of the product. After years of development, the chlorosulfonic acid process based on SOCl resin has been greatly optimized. Since 2019, some enterprises have successfully controlled the manufacturing cost at about 120000 yuan per ton, which is significantly lower than that of the earlier process. At present, the layout of most enterprises is based on SOCl chlorosulfonic acid process, but it is expected that only a few enterprises with deep technology accumulation in the chemical synthesis field can achieve a lower cost level and enjoy a higher profit margin.

In the next 5 years, LiFSI is expected to gradually enter the period of industrial introduction and explosive demand. Limited by price factors and limited process maturity, LiFSI is rarely used as a lithium salt in the market, but is widely used as an additive to improve the conductivity of the electrolyte, adding less than 0.5% of the quality of the electrolyte, and the market demand is about hundreds to 1000 tons. With the rapid increase in the demand for downstream power batteries, the demand for solute lithium salt is expected to expand significantly. LiFSI's excellent lithium battery performance and cost reduction will accelerate its penetration in the lithium salt field. Under the influence of dual factors, we predict that the demand for LiFSI is expected to double year by year in the next five years, and the market demand is expected to reach 129000 tons in 2025. In order to meet market demand, relevant suppliers are increasing their capacity to expand LiFSI capacity, and we expect the apparent capacity CAGR to reach 87.6% in 2020-2025.

The outbreak of LiFSI demand drives the expansion of demand for core raw materials such as SOCl resin, film-forming additives and fluid collector protective agents. The chlorosulfonic acid process based on SOCl resin is expected to become the mainstream process of LiFSI, and LiFSI is expected to promote the rapid expansion of SOCl demand. Driven by the continued growth of new demand, we expect that SOCl demand will reach 530000 tons in 2025. The industry may be tight in supply and demand, and relevant suppliers are expected to benefit. When LiFSI is used as lithium salt, the SEI forming ability is poor, and it is corrosive to aluminum collector plates. Compared with LiPF6, it needs to greatly increase the proportion of film-forming additives such as VC and fluid collector protective agents such as oxalate borate LiBOB/LiODFB. Therefore, the rapid development of LiFSI will accelerate the growth of demand for SOCl and related additives. We estimate that the demand for VC and oxalate borates will reach 37000 tons and 30000 tons respectively in 2025. It is about 8.4 and 65.3 times that of 2020.

Risk factors: the process of industrialization is not as expected; the demand for lithium electricity is not as expected; the expansion of new capacity is not as expected.

Investment strategy: as a solute lithium salt of electrolyte, LiFSI has the advantages of high conductivity, high chemical stability and high thermal stability, and is more suitable for the development direction of lithium battery with high performance, wide temperature and high safety in the future. LiFSI is the most likely to partially replace the next generation lithium battery lithium salt of LiPF6. After nearly 10 years of process exploration, the process route selection of LiFSI by the world's leading suppliers has gradually come to an end. We expect that LiFSI will gradually enter the stage of industrial introduction and demand explosion in the next 5 years. In 2025, the global LiFSI demand is expected to reach 129100 tons, the market space can reach 300-40 billion yuan, and the development prospect is broad.

It is recommended to pay attention to two main investment lines:

1) companies with advantages in patented technology layout, current synthesis cost and future production capacity planning on the LiFSI synthesis main track should pay attention to Divine Materials, New Zebang, Polyfluorodo, Yongtai Technology and so on.

2) the outbreak of LiFS demand drives the rapid expansion of the demand for core raw materials SOCl resin, film-forming additives and current collector protection additives. Pay attention to Kaisheng new materials, suppliers related to SOCl plastics, and film-forming additives related to Yongtai Technology and Oak shares.