Under the support of going to Kujia for overhaul, Shanghai lead Sanlianyang rose more than 2% again [SMM analysis]

SMM, Nov. 24: after a whole week of malaise last week, Shanghai lead rebounded at an ultra-low level this week, and continued to rise after the opening of trading this afternoon, with an intraday increase of more than 2%, recording a long-lost Dayangzhu. By the end of trading, the main lead in Shanghai had risen 2.11% to 15250 yuan / ton, up 630 yuan / ton, or 4.31%, from the low of 14620 hit last week.

While the main lead in Shanghai has risen for three consecutive days, the spot trend also coincides with it. According to the spot quotation of SMM, as of November 24, the average spot price of SMM lead ingots rose to 15050 yuan / ton, up 325 yuan / ton from the November 19 low, or 2.21%.

"Click to view the price of SMM lead products

From a fundamental point of view, the current primary lead smelter stable production, and recently a number of large recycled lead factories exposed the news of maintenance, recycled lead is expected to reduce, supply-side pressure dropped sharply. In addition, according to October lead ingot customs export data, the export volume of refined lead reached 26643 tons in October, compared with the fact that the export volume never exceeded four digits in the previous eight months.

In terms of inventory, since September 26, SMM five lead ingots inventory has shown a trend of going to the warehouse as a whole. As of November 22, SMM lead ingot stocks in the five places totaled 154400 tons, a decrease of 28.52 percent from the September 26 high of 61600 tons, the seventh consecutive week of decline since the National Day.

Downstream consumer side, Shanghai lead yesterday under pressure of 15000 yuan / ton, lead battery market slightly wait-and-see, market activity in general.

To sum up, the good export data is positive for the market, and the news of Glencore's production reduction at overseas zinc smelters also gives a boost to lead on the side, so all kinds of good news superimposes the background of the recent rebound of domestic black series to boost the general rise of non-ferrous metals. Domestic lead prices are out of the sun three times in a row. SMM believes that the continuous decline in domestic social stocks of lead ingots and the reduction of lead ingots are expected to continue to boost lead prices this week.