On November 19th, the share price of Sanyuan Materials Company as a whole strengthened, while Lithium Iron Phosphate, which is also a cathode material, was relatively weak. On the news side, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued documents such as "Lithium Ion Battery Industry Specification conditions (2021)" yesterday, in which the target data of power batteries is that the energy density of energy-type batteries is ≥ 180Wh/kg.
At present, the main power batteries are lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery. The theoretical energy density of the above batteries is 180Wh/kg and 280+Wh/kg respectively. This means that although the actual energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery is close to the theoretical "ceiling", it is still difficult to meet the goals in the above-mentioned "document".
The capital markets are worried that the objectives set out in the document will be mandatory, or that there will be restrictions on its production, and so on. However, the reporter learned from the senior management of a Zhengji factory that the target data had been put forward before and should not be over-interpreted. In addition, the future application of lithium iron phosphate battery is more suitable for energy storage. An expert involved in policy formulation also confirmed that the above energy density goal had long been proposed, and that it would be higher in the future.
However, at present, the goal of energy density of the energy-type battery is difficult to be achieved. According to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, the number of power batteries loaded in China was 15.4 GWH, of which 7GWH was loaded with ternary batteries and 8.4GWh was loaded with lithium iron phosphate batteries. Lithium iron phosphate battery accounts for more than half of the share. Under the tight supply and demand of power battery, it is difficult for lithium iron phosphate battery to quit in a short time.
In addition, although ternary materials have the characteristics of higher energy density, it can be seen from the continuous introduction of models with iron-lithium batteries and the production capacity planning of battery factories that lithium iron phosphate batteries have been gradually recognized and valued. Among them, Tesla said in the three quarterly reports that lithium iron phosphate batteries are being used worldwide for the standard continued versions of Model 3 and Moderl Y. This at least represents the technological direction for a long time to come.
On this basis, the future lithium iron phosphate battery is not without solution. Yiwei Lithium Energy said that the energy density of the company's main products of power lithium iron phosphate battery is ≥ 180Wh/kg. At the same time, lithium ferromanganese phosphate (LMFP) as one of the directions of upgrading lithium iron phosphate battery technology, industry insiders believe that the battery energy density can be increased by more than 15%. For example, the lithium ferromanganese phosphate of German Nano (300769.SZ) has begun to send samples, and Xingheng Power supply, Dangsheng Technology (300073.SZ) and so on are also being laid out.
In the case that the energy storage business has become the "second curve" of the battery factory, lithium iron phosphate batteries still have the opportunity to give full play to their abilities. On October 26th, the State Council issued the carbon peak action plan by 2030, proposing that the new energy storage capacity will reach more than 30 million kilowatts in 2025, 10 times the number of new units installed in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 58%. For safety, cost and other considerations, the market generally believes that energy storage is more suitable for lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Under the influence of many factors, the agency believes that the situation in which the ternary material plate is suppressed in the early stage will be rectified.
