Zinc Prices to Correct amid Weak Consumption

SHANGHAI, Nov 15 (SMM) - The focus of this week includes the September seasonally adjusted trade account in the Eurozone; the November New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index; the October unemployment claims and unemployment rate in the United Kingdom; the Eurozone’s Q3 GDP annual rate readings and seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of employment; US retail sales monthly rate in October; US import and export price index in October; US October monthly rate of industrial output; UK October CPI monthly rate and retail price index monthly rate; monthly rate of CPUI in the Eurozone in October; the annualised new housing starts in the United States in October (10,000 households); the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended on November 13 in the United States; China’s YTD installed capacity (10,000 kilowatts) of power generation until October. The United States released the CPI data in October at 6.2% with the forecast of 5.8%, and the reading stood at 5.4% in the previous month.

Nyrstar cut 50% of the zinc output of its three smelters in Europe in October, and Glencore announced that it would conduct staggered production at its smelters in Germany, Spain and Italy. There were no other smelters following suit, especially India where the market had previously worried the most, and the market's worries were relieved. European electricity prices have fallen, and short-term market concerns have been lifted. LME stocks fell by 9,475 mt this week, mostly coming from Johor and New Orleans warehouses. LME cash-to-three-month backwardation fell to $14/mt. LME zinc prices are expected to stand at $3,150-3,300/mt this week.

There will be the environmental protection requirements in November when the cold air and snowstorm arrives. The production of companies in north China was restricted. End-users’ projects have been delayed as steel prices continued to decline. The operating rates at galvanising plants trended lower amid muted sales and high finished product inventory. The operating rates at galvanising plants are expected to fall over 4% MoM in November. The operating rates of construction have shown recovery due to the easing of power rationing at die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide plants, coupled with restocking by end-users on falling prices. The upward room for operating rates is likely to be limited as the industry heads toward a seasonal low. On the whole, if the smelters produce as planned, and government stockpiles of zinc ingots are sold as planned, the market will see oversupply, which is likely to pressure on zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to move between 22,300-24,300 yuan/mt, and spot premiums of Shanghai zinc stood at 10~60 yuan/mt over the December contract.