Another state-owned enterprise to reduce the sales price of thermal coal below the 900 yuan mark, there is still room to fall back?

After a slight rebound last week, thermal coal continues to remain weak this week.

As of yesterday's close, domestic commodity futures closed mixed. Among them, the main contract of Zheng coal fell more than 7% to close at 870.4 yuan / ton, EB and urea fell by more than 2%, SS, Zheng you, etc., fell more than 1%, bean 2, plastic and so on fell slightly; red dates rose by more than 3%, PVC and rapeseed meal rose by more than 2%, Shanghai nickel and zinc rose by more than 1%, and pulp and PTA rose slightly.

Just yesterday, China Coal Market Network reported that China Coal Group once again comprehensively reduced the port and pit mouth thermal coal sales prices. First, the northern port 5500 kcal coal unwinding sales prices are all below 1100 yuan / ton. Second, the 5500 kcal coal pit price of its Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia production enterprises is not more than 900yuan / ton, making every effort to guide the market reasonable expectations and guide coal prices to return to rationality.

At the same time, the market supply of thermal coal is also recovering one after another. With the release of coal mine nuclear production, the gradual commissioning of construction coal mines and the resumption of production of temporary coal mines, coal production has continued to grow since October, with the average daily scheduled coal output reaching 11.66 million tons from November 1 to 5, an increase of more than 1.2 million tons from the end of September, with the highest daily output reaching 11.93 million tons, the highest in recent years, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement yesterday.

The thermal coal fell below the 900 yuan mark.

Yesterday, thermal coal futures showed a downward trend of reducing positions, as of the close, the main contract of thermal coal futures closed down 7.5% at 870.4 yuan / ton.

Thermal coal futures have fallen 50.44 per cent in the past 16 trading days, with the largest pullback reaching 57.57 per cent, from an intraday high of 1982 yuan per tonne on October 19 to yesterday's close.

In addition, the main contract of coking coal futures closed down 2.63% at 2310 yuan / ton yesterday, while the main contract of coke futures closed down 1.81% at 3012.5 yuan / ton. EB, urea, etc., fell by more than 2%. SS, Zheng you, etc., fell more than 1%, beans, plastics and so on fell slightly.

In terms of stocks, the overall coal mining concept plate remained weak yesterday, with the Shenwan Mining Index closing down 1.11%. Among them, Yanzhou Coal, Haohua Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal fell by more than 3%. In terms of ETF funds, energy and chemical ETF closed down 2.54%, while energy ETF funds and coal ETF turned green.

According to the China Coal Market Network, China Coal Group once again comprehensively cut the sales price of thermal coal at the port and Kengkou. First, the selling prices of 5500 kcal coal in the northern port are all below 1100 yuan / ton, and the other is that the price of 5500 kcal coal pit in its Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia production enterprises shall not exceed 900 yuan / ton.

"under the influence of the news, the bearish sentiment in the market on coal prices was released again." Ran Yumeng, a thermal coal analyst at Shenwan Futures, believes that under the regulation and control of the policy side, the top of coal prices has appeared this year.

In the view of Wang Lingxiang, a black researcher at Guangfa Futures, China Coal Group once again comprehensively reduced the sales prices of port and pit mouth thermal coal in fact in line with market expectations. "the port price limit is 1100 yuan per ton, and the freight per ton is about 300 yuan, so the price of Hengkou should be around 800,850 yuan / ton. At present, the market reflects a larger expectation."

Daily coal output hit a new high in recent years

Further, Wang Lingxiang believes that the further weakening of thermal coal mainly depends on the further improvement of supply and demand.

In terms of supply, the NDRC reported yesterday that coal production has continued to grow since October, with the average daily scheduled coal output reaching 11.66 million tons from November 1 to 5, an increase of more than 1.2 million tons from the end of September, and the highest daily output reached 11.93 million tons, setting a new high in recent years.

Since August, with the advance of the work of ensuring supply and increasing production, the pace of coal production release has accelerated. The average daily output of raw coal increased by about 2.7% month-on-month in September, which is basically close to the level of the same period last year, and the effect of ensuring supply has been reflected, "ran Yumeng said. The work of increasing production in the main producing areas has been further introduced after the National Day, and as this part of the production capacity will be gradually released, the level of coal production is still rising to the current new high level in recent years.

At the same time, thermal coal railway loading has remained at an all-time high of more than 60,000 vehicles, and thermal coal loading has increased by more than 35% since November compared with the same period last year. On November 6th, the coal storage of the power plant exceeded 117 million tons, an increase of about 40 million tons compared with the end of September. The coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port reached 5.39 million tons on November 7th, an increase of nearly 1.5 million tons compared with the end of September.

In addition, the coal source of power generation and heating enterprises has been fully implemented, and the signing rate of medium-and long-term contracts has basically been fully covered. As of November 6, the coal medium-and long-term contract coverage of power generation and heating enterprises in all provinces, autonomous regions and cities has exceeded 90%, of which 24 provinces, autonomous regions and cities have reached 100%.

"with the advance of the work of ensuring supply and increasing production, coal production continues to increase; the daily shipping volume of the Daqin line is maintained at a high level of more than 1.3 million tons after the end of autumn inspection; the port inventory is gradually approaching the same period last year; the available coal storage days of downstream power plants have rebounded to the safe level of more than 20 days." Ran Yumeng believes that with the gradual improvement of the market supply and demand pattern, coal prices may still have room to fall in the short term.

However, the changes in the daily consumption level of the power plant in winter and the release of production capacity in the mining area need continuous attention. Ran Yumeng analyzed that if the output of the mining area increases further, and the daily consumption level of the power plant does not rise beyond expectations in winter, and the double control policy of superimposed energy consumption suppresses the demand for terminal coal, the future coal price is expected to gradually fall back to a reasonable range.

"at present, the production capacity is about 260 million tons. According to the capacity utilization rate of 75%, the monthly increase is more than 16 million tons. In the fourth quarter, at least 50 million tons of increments are needed to equalize supply and demand." Wang Lingxiang also believes that according to the current efforts to increase production, supply and demand have improved significantly, supply will be further better than demand in the off-season next year, and coal prices may fall further.