What are the changes in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar approaching the high of the year? does the RMB continue to rise or fall in the later period?

Recently, the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise against the US dollar, only one step away from the year's high of 6.3573. Market participants said that after the exchange rate hit the 6.38 mark, US dollar buying increased, and the short-term exchange rate is expected to stabilize in the 6.38 front line.

Market participants believe that judging by multiple factors such as the current trade balance, bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange and the US dollar, it is unlikely that the RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate, but the short-term exchange rate will still show a pattern that is easy to rise and difficult to fall.

A foreign exchange trader at a bank in central China told the financial news agency that RMB bought a large number of dollars around 6.38 US dollars, and has been buying US dollars for several days. It is expected that the short-term RMB / US dollar exchange rate will encounter strong resistance around 6.38, and the pressure to continue to rise will increase. Short-term market demand for foreign exchange settlement is strong, and the driving force for the strengthening of the RMB remains.

There is still appreciation pressure on the RMB in the short term, but it is difficult to maintain it.

Market participants believe that as the trade balance reached a new high in September and European and American countries are about to enter the peak shopping season at the end of the year, a large amount of overseas demand will continue to stimulate China's exports, and the trade surplus for the whole year may continue to increase, and there will still be appreciation pressure on the RMB in the short term.

At the same time, the recent positive signals in Sino-US economic and trade relations have been concentrated, and the US Trade Representative has released the results of the evaluation of its trade policy toward China, saying that it will launch a targeted tariff exemption procedure. Committee member Yang Jiechi met with Sullivan, assistant to the US president for national security affairs, and agreed to take action. The market expects that the relaxation window of Sino-US economic and trade relations will open in the fourth quarter, which will be good for China's exports and also conducive to the appreciation of the RMB.

However, in the recent "Ten questions about China's economy" published by Xinhua she, it is pointed out that taking into account such factors as the increase in the foreign trade base in the second half of last year, the decline in foreign trade growth this year and the overall trend of "high in front and low in later" is a high probability event, and the growth rate of imports and exports may slow down slightly in the fourth quarter. Market participants also expect that export performance will gradually weaken in the future, and foreign exchange earnings from exports will not continue to support the settlement force for a long time.

In addition, considering that the difference between the settlement and sale of foreign exchange by banks is continuously positive, the foreign exchange share of the central bank does not change much, a large number of US dollar funds stay in the banking system, US dollar liquidity is relatively abundant, and the supporting effect of short-term goods trade settlement on the exchange rate is still obvious. However, the settlement exchange rate such as direct investment has declined significantly in September, so when the demand for rigid foreign exchange settlement is not high, the demand for foreign exchange settlement will gradually weaken, and the supporting force of foreign exchange settlement to the exchange rate is expected to be difficult to maintain.

Dong Qi, chief analyst at Guotai Junan Macro, said that the current appreciation of the RMB is not sustainable, and the RMB will still return to the state of "easy to depreciate but difficult to rise" before the end of the year, but generally maintain the characteristics of stability throughout the year, and it is difficult to depreciate significantly. For the current short-term supporting factors of RMB exchange rate, most of them will have a marginal reversal at the end of the fourth quarter.