Higher-than-expected tension in Ferro Nickel stimulates nickel prices to hit an all-time high [selected from SMM Nickel Weekly]

Published: Oct 23, 2021 11:06
Source: SMM
[SMM Nickel Weekly report selected] judging from the current stress degree of Ferro nickel, coupled with the upward movement of cost-end prices (mainly due to rising electricity prices) and the reduction of production of ferronickel caused by power cuts, the problem of shortage of ferronickel is more difficult to solve, and the supply and demand of ferronickel in Indonesia is still tight. In addition, in the first quarter of next year, as the rainy season in the Philippines will begin to reflect the decrease in imported nickel mines, the tension of ferronickel in the first quarter is expected to reach the highest level in recent years.

"SMM Nickel Industry chain Weekly report" is released. SMM will select hot topics, prices, quotations or major changes in the industry chain and release information for your reference.

The following is an excerpt from the weekly report of the SMM nickel industry chain:

At the beginning of this week, the mood of domestic commodities fluctuated greatly, mainly due to the gradual amplification of the impact of the coal limit on the market, coupled with the G20 countries' plans to reduce carbon emissions, and the market thought that the problem of electricity supply might be alleviated. Therefore, this week we found that the varieties leading the decline are basically linked to electricity. For nickel, on the supply side, although the per ton power consumption of electrolytic nickel is relatively high, the impact of domestic power restriction is less at present, only Jinchuan electricity production has been reduced by 10% recently, and stainless steel production has slowed down on the demand side, coupled with the recovery of nickel sulfate. the overall negative feedback impact of electricity has been reduced, so the relative decline in nickel prices in this round of pullback is general. In the future, judging from the current tension of Ferro-nickel, coupled with the upward movement of cost-end prices (mainly due to the rise in electricity prices) and the reduction of production of ferronickel caused by power cuts, the problem of shortage of ferronickel is more difficult to solve, and the supply and demand of ferronickel in Indonesia is still tight. In addition, in the first quarter of next year, as the rainy season in the Philippines will begin to reflect the decrease in imported nickel mines, the tension of ferronickel in the first quarter is expected to reach the highest level in recent years. The proportion of purchasing pure nickel downstream of the market materials will increase. The contradiction of this line may continue to ensure that nickel prices can stabilize the low level. Whether we can return to the high level may depend on whether the excess of nickel sulfate will be transmitted from the solution production line to reduce production. We believe that the new energy line is a high-growth industry, and the short-term surplus of raw materials or only active excess, but we should still pay attention to the accelerated increase in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries. The growth rate of ternary batteries may not be as fast as expected, and finally there will be a shift from active excess to passive excess of nickel sulfate. As for the price judgment, the short-term nickel price is still optimistic, and we will pay attention to whether the excess nickel sulfate will lead to a reduction in nickel bean production in the long term. SHFE nickel price: 148000160000 yuan / ton, LME nickel price 198000020800 / ton.

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Catalogue of "SMM Nickel Industry chain Weekly report" in this issue

Main points of this issue's weekly report

Pure nickel

Nickel iron

Stainless steel

Nickel sulfate

[China Nickel Industry chain High-end report] China Nickel Industry chain monthly report includes macro interpretation, monthly nickel price review, interpretation of hot events in various sections of the nickel industry chain (nickel ore, electrolytic nickel, nickel pig iron, stainless steel, ferrochromium) and other hot events, future forecasts, and Synchronize releases monthly relevant enterprise operating rate and inventory survey data, covering the entire nickel industry chain.

[China Nickel Industry chain routine report] China Nickel Industry chain Weekly report includes macro interpretation, weekly review of nickel price, market trends of various sections of nickel industry chain (electrolytic nickel, nickel pig iron, stainless steel, ferrochromium), weekly social inventory, future forecast, comprehensive interpretation of the nickel market in the week.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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