SHANGHAI, Oct 22 (SMM) -Nearly half of the global lithium carbonate resources have been used in NEVs in 2020. The global demand for lithium carbonate is expected to increase to 610,000 mt LCE by 2025, with a five-year compound growth rate of 14%, mainly driven by NEVs, with market demand for NEVs accounting for nearly 60%;
Nearly 70% of global lithium hydroxide resources were used in NEVs in 2020. It is expected that the overall market demand for lithium hydroxide will increase to 450,000 mt by 2025, driven by the accelerating high nickel process of motive power ternary cathode material batteries. The five-year compound growth rate is 30%, of which the market demand for NEVs accounts for nearly 90%.
1. NEV market analysis (2020-2025E)
Global NEVs are expected to reach 18 million units by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 28% in 2021-2025, and the demand for lithium batteries to stand at 1088GWh, with a compound growth rate of 32% due to subsidy policies in various countries, improving R&D and increasing consumer acceptance; The Chinese market will become one of the world's largest new energy vehicle markets. The domestic penetration rate is expected to reach 21% by 2025, and the total output reach 8.01 million units, which in turn will drive the demand for lithium batteries to record 490GWh, with compound growth rate of 31% in 2021-2025.
The electrification transformation of global mainstream car companies has started, and more vehicles with long range will appear in the future. The application proportion of ternary lithium batteries in the global motive power field is expected to reach 76% by 2025, which will drive the demand for lithium hydroxide to increase to 390,000 mt LCE; the proportion of ternary lithium batteries in China’s motive power sector is likely to reach 60%, which will increase the demand for lithium hydroxide to 230,000 mt LCE.
2. Consumer electronics market analysis (2020-2025E)
In recent years, lithium battery consumption in the traditional consumer electronics market has been relatively stable. The consumer-type lithium battery market is expected to maintain a steady growth trend amid the growth of demand for electric bicycles, and the continuous development of new consumer electronic products such as wearable devices, drones, and smart homes. Due to the accelerated upgrading of smartphones, the average charge level of mobile phones has increased from 2020, and the types of smart terminal products, including electric bicycles, wireless earphones, mobile power supplies, smart speakers, etc. have increased. The overall growth of 3C consumer electronics batteries has increased significantly, and the global market has increased by 20% year-on-year; the total global demand for consumer electronics batteries is expected to reach 183GWh by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 17% in 2021-2025, of which the total demand in the consumer electronics market in China is likely to stand at 130GWh, with a compound growth rate of 18%, on the back of the 5G replacement wave, the rise of Internet of Things devices and new consumer battery markets, including wearable devices, drones, and smart homes.