Aluminium Ingot January Production Analysis & February Forecast

According to SMM's research findings, Yunnan Province is currently experiencing a dry season, with hydropower contribution remaining at a relatively low level. Enterprises have no immediate plans for production resumption and await clearer policy guidance from the power sector.

The implementation of Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports since June last year has led to bauxite surplus, brought challenges to consume domestically as the Indonesia's alumina plants have limited capacity. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of the Indonesian Bauxite and Iron Ore Entrepreneurs Association (Asosiasi Pengusaha Bauksit dan Bijih Besi Indonesia - APB3I), highlighted the struggle to secure external investment for alumina plant projects, while some entrepreneurs are forced to cut costs or halt production. However, there is hope for relief through potential relaxation of the export ban policy. Efforts are underway to boost alumina production capacity, although challenges persist in addressing the surplus bauxite issue.

China produced 848,500 mt of copper cathode in March, up 8.42% MoM and down 5.79% YoY, according to SMM statistics.

China’s lithium carbonate output was 18,609 mt in February, a month-on-month decrease of 2% but a year-on-year increase of 51%.

Li Xinchuang, secretary of the party committee of the Metallurgical Industry Planning Research Institute and vice president of the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, said that from the recent response from industry participants, the crude steel production regulation policy is likely to continue in 2022.

According to SMM survey, the operating rates of magnesium powder plants were suppressed under the impact of Beijing Winter Olympics. Some plants in Tianjin and Shanxi cut the production, and the overall output declined by 30%.

SMM data shows that domestic polysilicon output stood at 42,800 mt in November, an increase of 5.9% month on month and 20.2% year on year.

In October 2021, global crude steel output in the 64 countries and regions included in the WSA statistics totalled 145.7 million mt, down 10.6% compared to October 2020. 1,607 million mt of crude steel were produced globally in the January-October, up 5.9% year-on-year.

China's refined tin output stood at 14,443 mt in October, up 10.95% from September.