SMM Forecast: Copper Prices to Trend Lower in October amid Power Rationing

SHANGHAI, Oct 11 (SMM)—The production and new orders are expected to be affected by the intensifying power rationing in October. 

The real estate industry will become thinner in October amid the events of Evergrande Group and tight regulatory policies. The abortive auction rate of the second centralised land supply was as high as 32%. The newly started area and construction area is expected to fall further in the future. The workflow situation in the construction industry is likely to be worse in October. The power rationing in various places will continue in October. Therefore, the production index of the power industry is expected to decline in October and the orders to weaken.

The consumption in the electronics industry is expected to keep strong in the high season. Producers that suspended production in September kept high operating rates during the National Day holiday. Thus, the production index is likely to increase. 

The chip supply is expected to increase as the overseas Covid-19 pandemic situation is eased in October and the new orders to trend higher. 

The home appliance industry enters high season of production in October and the export orders increase, which is expected to be subject to the power rationing in October. The industry is unlikely to fully recover in the short term amid the sluggish performance in the real estate and slow recovery of exports. 

The supply and demand in the copper market is expected to weaken in October. The power rationing exerted greater impact on the consumption side as a whole.  The quotations of imported secondary copper raw materials was high and the prices of domestic products were lower than imported products. Therefore, the imports are unlikely to increase sharply in the short term. The demand for domestic copper scrap is expected to be higher than supply. Copper prices are expected to decrease in October amid the power rationing and sluggish downstream consumption.