The country will always be heavy! What is the impact of the increase in the fluctuation range of electricity prices? Which stocks are good?

On October 8, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council presided over an executive meeting of the State Council, which further made arrangements for the supply of electricity and coal this winter and next spring, so as to ensure the basic livelihood of the people and the smooth operation of the economy.

The meeting stressed that the fluctuation range of market trading electricity prices should be adjusted from no more than 10% and 15% respectively to no more than 20% in principle, and should be classified and adjusted so that market prices can be formed by market transactions for high energy-consuming industries, which are not subject to the limit of rising by 20%. Local governments are encouraged to implement phased preferential policies for the use of electricity by small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households.

Tianfeng Securities commented that the increase in the floating range of market trading electricity prices further broke the market's expectation of "only falling but not rising" electricity prices. In the future, power resources will better return to commodity attributes, the rising trend of electricity prices is clear, and the value of power operators will be reshaped.

Changjiang Securities Research News pointed out that since the National Development and Reform Commission reaffirmed the policy of "restoring the commodity attribute of electric power" and launched the policy of "improving time-sharing electricity prices" in the second quarter, many places have successively liberalized the restrictions on the non-floating of electricity prices in market-oriented transactions of thermal power, and the expectation of market-oriented reform of the power industry under the background of "carbon neutralization" continues to rise. This policy obviously continues the spirit of previous policies and aims to further carry out market-oriented reforms on the formation mechanism of electricity prices. It is helpful to restore the public utility attribute of the industry itself.

In addition, the meeting clearly put forward the need to support coal and power enterprises to increase power supply, to implement a phased tax moratorium policy in view of the difficulties of coal and power enterprises, and to guide and encourage financial institutions to guarantee coal purchase and other reasonable financing needs of coal and power enterprises.

Tianfeng Securities believes that with the gradual implementation of the policy, coal production capacity is expected to be released, coal prices may gradually decline. At the same time, in the context of tight power supply and demand, electricity prices are expected to rise, and the profits of thermal power companies may improve. Nine companies, including Huaneng International, Huadian International and Datang Power Generation, are selected for calculation. the results show that if the feed-in electricity price of thermal power is increased by 0.01 yuan per kilowatt-hour, it is expected to increase the return net profit by 5.33% and 22.45%.

It is worth noting that before the National standing Committee proposed to adjust the transaction electricity price, policies have been introduced in many places to gradually relax the restrictions on electricity price. Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Shandong and other places have previously issued notices on electricity price adjustment.

Tianfeng Securities Research report pointed out that the rising trend of electricity prices is clear, and the valuation of power operators is expected to be reshaped. Electricity prices rise superimposed capacity release costs downward, thermal power company performance may improve. In addition, under the carbon neutralization target, the work of reducing emissions is urgent, and the development of renewable energy is expected to accelerate.

In terms of specific targets, thermal power proposes to pay attention to Waneng Power, and the proposal for the transformation of thermal power to new energy should pay attention to Huaneng International (Atroh), China Resources Power, China Power International (Achih); new energy operators suggest to pay attention to Longyuan Power, Funeng shares, three Gorges Energy, Geodian shares, Jinkai New Energy, etc.; Hydropower proposes to pay attention to Chuantou Energy, Huaneng Hydropower, Guotou Power, Yangtze River Power.

Changjiang Securities believes that under the call of the "carbon neutral" era, the process of power mechanism reform is expected to continue to move forward. The reform principles of restoring commodity attributes and reflecting supply and demand relations and cost fluctuations are expected to improve the current profit dilemma of thermal power operating assets, while new energy transformation, growth, green power and other related policies also bring investment opportunities for new energy operating assets, and continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in various sub-sectors of the power industry. It is recommended to pay attention to Huaneng International, China Resources Power, China Nuclear Power, Huaneng Hydropower, Yangtze River Power, Huadian International and Funeng shares.