Do you have to go up? Salt Lake Lithium extraction into Winter will lead to production reduction analyst: supply impact of about 5% in previous years

Due to the high altitude, large temperature difference and production facilities to be improved, the production efficiency of Qinghai-Tibet Salt Lake in winter is not as expected. A reporter from the Financial Associated Press recently learned that Tibet Mining is expected to harvest lithium concentrate at one time from September to October. And winter production enterprises also "show their talents", such as Lanke lithium industry to take heat preservation treatment of key equipment, Tibetan holding company equipped with boiler facilities.

Although the above facilities ensure the normal production of lithium extraction from salt lake, it still affects the production efficiency.

The output of lithium extraction from salt lake will be reduced in winter.

Solar evaporation generally exists in the production process of lithium extraction from salt lakes, but the evaporation of salt lakes decreases in winter in Qinghai-Tibet region, and even some salt lakes are frozen. In addition, some of the workers work in Tibet at low elevations, and trees wither in winter will not adapt to oxygen scarcity.

Tibet's mining industry adopts solar pond technology, which is relatively simple but requires high temperature and sunshine. A reporter from the Financial Associated Press learned that the Tibetan mining industry harvests lithium concentrate once a year from September to October instead of continuous production, and the rest of the time it is selling inventory products. According to the company's forecast, the planned output of 7000 tons of lithium concentrate can be achieved this year. In this year's semi-annual performance exchange meeting, the company revealed that the current lithium concentrate inventory of 5889 tons, industrial-grade lithium carbonate inventory of 692 tons.

Or aware of the limitations of solar pond technology, the Zabuye Phase II project, which is planned to start at the end of September, will adopt salt field evaporation + membrane separation technology + crystallization evaporation technology to extract lithium, which can carry out continuous chemical industrial production without the influence of the weather. the company said that it had considered the storage of products and made corresponding arrangements for future transportation.

"Lanke Lithium Industry (Koda Manufacturing shareholding Company) will not stop production in winter, and winter will have a slight impact on summer production efficiency, but it will have little impact on the whole year." The person in charge of Koda Manufacturing told the Financial Associated Press. It is reported that the production process is adsorption + membrane method. Lanke lithium has insulated the key equipment such as adsorption tower and process pipeline in the early stage to ensure its normal operation in winter.

For example, Lanke Lithium Industry produced 10, 000 tons of industrial-grade lithium carbonate last year and produced 13600 tons in 2020, according to the above-mentioned person. According to the information disclosed by Koda Manufacturing, Lanke Lithium Industry produced 8466 tons of lithium carbonate from January to June 2021. It is worth noting that Lanke Lithium Industry has an annual output of 20, 000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate project in April this year. Considering the capacity climbing situation, the company's output in the second half of the year may be better than that in the first half of the year.

"judging from past experience, the company's lithium carbonate production has a certain impact on maintenance before and after the Spring Festival." Tibetan holding related people said. It is reported that the company's lithium carbonate project is designed according to the annual production days of 270 days, and the temperature has a partial impact on production, but the company takes this effect into account when designing the project, and reasonably arranges the production capacity in different seasons. The company is equipped with corresponding boiler facilities, which can still be produced normally in winter.

Qu Yinfei, from the point of view of the salt lake lithium extraction industry, said that due to the low temperature in winter and high energy consumption in production, the salt lake often arranges production plans in summer and less in winter. According to past practice, the production efficiency of salt lake Q4 is about 15% lower than that of Q3. Some people in the industry said that the production of Qinghai-Tibet Salt Lake was gradually reduced from September to October.

Impact on market supply or about 5%

Guotai Junan pointed out that the supply of lithium carbonate did not increase in the second half of the year, but demand increased by more than 50% month on month in the second half. September-October may be the two months after the production schedule jumped after the downstream capacity was put into operation. The whole industry entered a tight balance in July. September-October may be the best time for demand, and the tension between supply and demand is likely to be very serious. Some downstream enterprises may not be able to buy enough goods to supply production.

In view of the current trading attitude of the lithium carbonate market, qu Yinfei said that on the seller's side, the ore smelting end mainly delivers early orders, the spot supply is limited, and the salt lake side prefers to sell mainly, controlling single quantity. As the market supply continues to be tight, the buyer gradually accepts the goods at a high price and intends to transmit the price to the terminal.

"at present, the supply of individual orders of listed companies is very small. According to the data of 2020, the impact of the reduction of salt lake production in winter on the overall market supply is about 5%. The downstream demand continues to increase and the market supply decreases, which is a good support for the price of lithium carbonate. " Qu Yinfei makes further analysis. At present, the trading range of back-to-back orders of leading manufacturers is controlled in the range of 11.5-125000 yuan / ton. The spot supply of goods in the market is less, scattered orders are sold sporadically, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is rumored to have reached 155000 yuan / ton, and the industrial grade lithium carbonate has exceeded 145000 yuan / ton.

It is understood that ternary and iron lithium customers have a higher intention to accept the high price of lithium carbonate, and the current range of acceptance is around 15-160000 yuan / ton. Affected by the increase in the price of lithium manganate at the end of raw materials, small and medium-sized enterprises are under obvious pressure, and there has been an obvious reduction in production. Lithium cobalt oxide was affected by the shortage of terminal chips, the demand dropped, and the overall output of the enterprise showed a significant pullback. The ability to accept the high price of lithium manganate in the spot market is slightly poor, and the purchasing enthusiasm of lithium cobalt customers affected by demand is not high. at present, lithium manganate and lithium cobalt accept the spot price of lithium carbonate in the range of less than 150000 yuan / ton.

A research report pointed out that the Pilbara9 will hold the second lithium concentrate auction in the middle of the month, and it is expected that the transaction price will only increase compared with the previous one, which will continue to drive the lithium price higher. Under the game of all parties in the industrial chain, the profit is gradually tilted to the resource side.