[SMM Metal Morning reference] Dollar rebounds Metal prices are mixed | spot prices of stainless steel soar | Silicon prices continue to rise.

SMM Morning Review

SMM Tin Morning News: fundamentals, for some time in the future, loose supply is expected to be in relative balance with the procurement demand shown by downstream enterprises whenever prices fall, which provides some support for the recent high sideways trend. In terms of price trend, the range of price fluctuation is small and the degree of capital participation is not high, indicating that there is little probability of forming a trend with a clear direction in the short term. To sum up, it is more safe to treat the high sideways in front of the lower edge of the market price which fails to effectively break through the shock range. It is expected to be today.

"the trend of tin price fluctuates gently and the wait-and-see mood of funds is heavy.

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The market closed overnight.

The US non-farm payrolls data for August released last week was much lower than expected, making the dollar hit an one-month low on Friday. On Monday, the dollar rebounded slightly, putting pressure on the metal market. Yesterday, the outer disk metal was mostly green. Only aluminum zinc prices rose, aluminum, Loun aluminum rose 1.26%, reports of the political situation in Guinea raised concerns about the shortage of raw materials. Guinean bauxite accounts for about 1/4 of global production, and there are no signs of supply disruptions, analysts said. In the outer market, except for aluminum, Lun copper fell 0.17%, Lunzn zinc rose 0.63%, Lunni fell 0.36%, Lunxi fell 1.84%, and lun lead fell 1.07%.

"[overnight market] the US dollar rebounded and the metal was mostly green. Us stocks were closed for one day due to Labor Day on September 6.

In crude oil, oil prices continued to decline after Saudi Arabia's price cuts to Asian buyers increased the possibility of fierce competition among oil-producing countries, but the resurgence of the novel coronavirus epidemic has once again cast a shadow over the demand outlook for the global crude oil market.

On precious metals, spot gold fell slightly from near a seven-week high on Monday as the dollar rebounded from a low set after Friday's US non-farm payrolls data.

For U. S. stocks, Monday, September 6 is Labor Day, and U. S. financial markets, including U. S. stocks, are closed.

At the beginning of the week, there are no big data to be released at the macro level. On Wednesday, the Fed will release its beige book, and investors will look for clues to inflationary pressures and labor market tensions. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce interest rate decisions and issue a statement on monetary policy decisions, which will provide further guidance to the euro, which has continued to strengthen recently. On Friday, the United States will release August CPI data to see if inflationary pressures have eased.

Today, the macro aspect focuses on the data such as China's August trade account and the final annual rate of GDP after the euro zone's quarterly adjustment in the second quarter.

"[macro outlook] Today focuses on China's August trade account and the final annual GDP rate after the euro zone's quarterly adjustment in the second quarter.

LME inventory

Macro focus

[the CPC Central Committee and the State Council: support the implementation of the state's policies and measures to expand the opening up of the financial industry to the outside world in the Qianhai Cooperation Zone] the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "comprehensively deepening the Reform and opening up Plan of the Qianhai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone." The "plan" proposes to expand the opening up of the financial industry to the outside world. We will enhance the functions of the trial and demonstration window for the opening up of the national financial industry to the outside world and the cross-border RMB business innovation pilot zone, and support the implementation of the state's policies and measures to expand the opening up of the financial industry to the outside world in the Qianhai Cooperation Zone. We will first try it in the areas of interconnection with Hong Kong's financial market, cross-border use of RMB, and foreign exchange management facilitation. We will carry out a pilot project of integrating local and foreign currency bank accounts to provide market players with high-quality, safe and efficient bank account services. Support qualified financial institutions to carry out cross-border securities investment and other business. Support the Qianhai Joint Trading Center of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to carry out spot trading of commodities in accordance with the law.

[chairman of the Securities Regulatory Commission Yi Huiman: guard against the bubble of idling funds to prevent the accumulation of false risks] Chairman Yi Huiman of the Securities Regulatory Commission: the experience of dealing with the epidemic once again tells us that serving the real economy and protecting the legitimate rights and interests of investors is the root and soul of the development of the capital market, and should also be the primary goal of global exchanges and regulators. It should be noted that the evolution of the current epidemic is still full of uncertainty, and the recovery of the world economy is unstable and unbalanced. we should continue to shoulder the mission and responsibility of the capital market, further strengthen the functioning of the market, and persist in relying on entities and service entities. we should promote a virtuous circle of the real economy and the capital market, and at the same time, we should guard against the bubble of idling funds and prevent the accumulation of unreal risks. In the face of the epidemic, rising commodity prices, supply chain obstruction and other multiple tests, small and medium-sized enterprises are in a relatively difficult stage. Supporting and developing small and medium-sized enterprises is an important issue for the recovery and development of the global economy.

[global manufacturing PMI declined for three consecutive months in August] the latest data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on the 6th show that the global manufacturing PMI in August 2021 was 55.7%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and fell below 56% for the first time since March 2021. From a subregional perspective, manufacturing PMI in Asia and Europe declined to varying degrees from the previous month; the manufacturing PMI in the Americas was the same as the previous month, but the overall level was lower than the second-quarter average; and African manufacturing PMI rebounded to more than 50 per cent.

[the people's Bank of China and the Bank of Indonesia decided to formally launch the cooperation framework for local currency settlement] according to the memorandum of understanding signed between the people's Bank of China and the Bank of Indonesia on September 30, 2020, the people's Bank of China and the Bank of Indonesia announced the formal launch of the cooperation framework for local currency settlement between China and Indonesia from September 6, 2021. This is an important milestone in deepening monetary and financial cooperation between the central banks of the two countries, which will help to form a direct quotation for RMB / Indonesian rupee, expand the use of local currency in economic and trade exchanges between the two countries, and promote trade and investment facilitation.

[CICC: the probability of the Federal Reserve announcing Taper will decline in September] China International Capital Corporation pointed out that due to the substandard non-farm payrolls in August, the Fed's probability of announcing Taper in September will decrease, but the announcement of Taper this year is still our benchmark. Despite the poor performance of non-farm payrolls in August, the average job creation over the past three months does not look bad, given the upward revision of employment data for June and July. If the employment data are stable in September and October, it is still possible to announce Taper in November. Moreover, the rise in wage growth in August has raised concerns about the risk of inflation, and hawkish officials will not easily abandon their support for early Taper.

[national Health Commission: national cumulative reported vaccination of novel coronavirus vaccine 2.107 billion times] data from the National Health Commission show that as of September 5, 2021, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps reported a total of 2.107445 billion doses of novel coronavirus vaccine.

Today's focus

[SMM Analysis: interpreting Malaysia's scrap Copper Import tightening Standards and its impact] Malaysia will undoubtedly tighten scrap copper import standards, which will undoubtedly affect China's import of recycled copper raw materials, which will make the situation of domestic scrap copper supply even worse. However, the current novel coronavirus epidemic situation in Malaysia is still very serious, and there are still big doubts as to whether the new standards can be implemented on October 31. "check the details.

[SMM monthly outlook: macro contrary to fundamentals copper prices may fluctuate wide in September] Copper prices have fallen back since they reached their highs in May 2006 and have been in a state of horizontal volatility since the end of June. In mid-early August, copper prices were affected by macro negative factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the selling of copper reserves by the State Reserve. The overall downward space was released in late August. Copper prices recovered some of their losses. The main contract of Shanghai copper finally recorded a monthly decline of 2.2%. "check the details.

[SMM data: national mainstream copper market inventory increased by 2800 tons over the weekend] as of Monday, September 6, SMM national mainstream copper market inventory increased by 2800 tons to 133900 tons compared with last Friday. The inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly across the country over the weekend, and the continuous arrival of imported copper was the main reason for the increase in inventories; in addition, the improvement of power cuts in Guangxi also slowed down the speed of de-storage in Guangdong than in the previous period. Looking ahead to this week, copper imports are expected to continue to increase, consumption is likely to be about the same as last week, and total inventory is expected to continue to increase this week. "check the details

[SMM aluminum rod processing fee market: aluminum price surge aluminum rod processing fee down] SMM September 6: today's aluminum base price wide range rise, aluminum rod processing fee can not keep up with the rise, local processing fee drop, Shandong 1A60Pu aluminum rod processing fee out-of-factory price up 200-litre water 450yuan / ton, the average price recorded 325yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day, Henan 1A60 aluminum rod processing fee is 230,280yuan / ton, the average price is 325yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day, Henan 1A60 aluminum rod processing fee is 230,280 yuan / ton, the average price is 325 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day. The average price of 255yuan / ton was 95 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day, and the 1A60 processing fee for round aluminum rods in Inner Mongolia was 50-100yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100yuan / ton. "check the details.

[SMM data: domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory dropped 5000 tons to 744000 tons compared with the previous Thursday] on Sept. 6, SMM counted domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 744000 tons, down 5000 tons from the previous Thursday. Wuxi and Gongyi contributed the main decline, mainly due to the stable local arrival and decent performance out of storage; the inventory performance in the South China Sea was small, mainly due to the delivery of aluminum ingots in Northwest China at the weekend. "View details

[SMM data: lead ingot production in recycled lead smelters continues to slow] SMM's total lead ingot inventory in the five places reached 207700 tons as of Monday, up 1100 tons from last Friday and 1400 tons from Monday, according to SMM research.

[SMM data: SMM Seven Zinc Ingot Social inventory dropped 1500 tons compared with last Friday] SMM Sept. 6: according to SMM, as of Monday, SMM Seven Zinc Ingot inventory totaled 122100 tons, down 1500 tons from last Friday and 3900 tons from last Monday. "check for details.

[SMM tin brief review: the short-term direction of funds leaving the market in the lower part of the Shanghai-Xi concussion trial interval is unknown] on the market trend, after a slight upturn after the opening of the day, the position fell back, indicating that the upsurge of the bulls was powerless. The fact that the price fell below the lower edge of the range did not attract enough short funds to enter the market shows that both long and short parties do not have much willingness to enter the market at this price level. From the fundamental point of view, the spot transaction is relatively stable, according to the smelter production data obtained, the upstream output is relatively stable, in the short term, the supply and demand sides are in a state of dynamic balance. "View details

[SMM Nickel brief Review: implementation of stainless Steel production restriction Policy negative Nickel Price Shanghai Nickel shock Down] SMM Sept. 6: 2110 of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel today fluctuated, and the center of gravity moved down. Shanghai Nickel opened early in the day at 148380 yuan / ton, rose slightly after the opening, rising to the highest intraday transaction price of 149370 yuan / ton, approaching the previous high, and then long positions led to shock downside, in 146000 first-line shock consolidation. Nickel futures closed today at 146100 yuan / ton, down 0.11% from the settlement price of the previous day. "check the details.

Foshan stainless Steel Daily Review: the spot price of stainless steel has skyrocketed! SMM Sept. 6: stainless steel futures soared 1000 last Friday, exhilarating market sentiment, trading situation of some manufacturers turned warm on Friday and Saturday. As of today, the spot morning market prices of stainless steel of all departments in Foshan have been increased by different degrees compared with the market quotations on Friday, with 304private cold rolling amplitude adjustment even as high as 8.900. "check the details.

[SMM Analysis: Handan tightens production restriction Policy and supply reduction is expected to strengthen] on September 1, the Office of the leading Group on Air pollution Prevention and Control in Handan issued a plan to limit production in key industries in September and October. According to the survey and calculation conducted by SMM on the relevant steel enterprises in Handan, if 50% is shut down in September, the daily output of hot metal will be affected by about 16500 tons; if 70% is closed in October, the daily output of hot metal will be affected by about 23100 tons; if all of them are shut down, the daily output of hot metal will be affected by about 33000 tons. "View details

[SMM Coke spot Daily Review: the ninth round of increase has landed coke enterprise profits are still on the low side] Sept. 6 coke: today's coke market is stable and strong, and the ninth round of coke increase has been fully implemented, totaling 1160 yuan / ton. As the environmental protection inspectors in Shandong carried out the verification of coal consumption indicators, some coke enterprises were told to stuffy the stove, some coke enterprises in Shanxi took the initiative to limit production, the limit was between 20% and 30%, and the price of raw coal continued to rise sharply. Coke enterprises' profits remain low, and some coke enterprises even lose money. "check the details.

[SMM comment: notice on strengthening Manganese pollution Control and promoting Manganese Industrial structure Adjustment] SMM on September 6th: according to the information released by the Electrolytic Manganese Innovation Alliance on Monday, SMM learned that the spot operating rate of electrolytic manganese in the mainstream areas of the manganese triangle is not high due to environmental protection, although the demand for raw material manganese in terminal steel mills affected by consumption reduction and production restriction is limited in the short term, and manganese prices gradually fall back obviously. It is expected that the production schedule of manganese manufacturers in various regions may change in the later stage, so SMM believes that the room for manganese price decline in a short period may be limited, which is still mainly based on the willingness of manufacturers and market traders. "View details

[SMM Daily Review: continuing the rising market Silicon factories are still reluctant to sell] SMM Sept. 6, East China does not have oxygen 55 silicon in 23800-24000 yuan / ton, 330 silicon in 29600-30000 yuan / ton, silicon prices have jumped for many days in a row, silicon production enterprises are still more optimistic about the future. "check the details.

[SMM molybdenum spot KuaiBao | Market long-short sentiment game domestic molybdenum prices remain stable] SMM believes that there are still expectations of a reduction in molybdenum supply in September, superimposed by the current peak production season for steel mills, the market is still optimistic about the future basic supply and demand, there is still support below prices, stability is expected in the short term, and there is still room to rise in the long run. "

Important news of metals and industry

[Chilean Caserones Copper Union reaches wage agreement end strike] Minera Lumina Copper said on Sunday that it had reached an agreement with workers at the Caserones mine in Chile on a three-year collective contract, ending a strike that lasted nearly a month.

[Ukraine launches anti-dumping investigation into China-related aluminum ladders] on September 1, 2021, the Ukrainian Interdepartmental International Trade Commission issued a notice that, upon the application of Ukrainian domestic enterprises, in accordance with Resolution AD-503 Universe 2021 Universe 4411-03 of August 27, 2021, an anti-dumping investigation was launched against aluminum ladders originating in China, Slovakia, Poland and Belarus.

[SMM: the impact of the epidemic in Alashankou, Xinjiang gradually alleviates, the import of zinc in Kazakhstan will gradually recover] from 00 to 24:00 on September 3, there were no new confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections of COVID-19 in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region (including the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps); one asymptomatic infected person in Alashankou City, Bozhou was relieved of medical observation. According to SMM, at present, the transportation restrictions caused by the epidemic in Alashan pass are gradually recovering, and it is expected that Kazakh zinc imports will return to normal in the future.

[China Iron and Steel Association: in August, the daily output of crude steel in steel enterprises decreased by 2.1% compared with the previous month.] according to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in late August 2021, iron and steel enterprises produced a total of 22.5792 million tons of crude steel, 19.9991 million tons of pig iron and 23.0229 million tons of steel. Of this total, the daily output of crude steel was 2.0527 million tons, down 3.99 percent from the previous month; the daily output of pig iron was 1.8181 million tons, down 2.85 percent from the previous month; and the daily output of steel was 2.093 million tons, up 1.54 percent from the previous month.

According to the requirements of relevant documents in Jiangsu Province, nine districts and cities, including Taizhou City, immediately suspended the energy conservation review of the "two high" projects. A few days ago, the Energy Saving Office of the provincial leading group on climate change and energy conservation and emission reduction issued a report on the progress of achieving the target of energy intensity in various districts and cities in the first half of this year. In the first half of this year, the energy consumption per unit of GDP in the province rose by more than 1% compared with the same period last year, which is far from the target requirement of about 3%. Among the 13 cities divided into districts, only Suzhou has achieved the progress requirements of energy consumption intensity target. The document requires that districts and cities that have not achieved their progress targets must take targeted and effective measures to achieve a rapid decline in energy consumption intensity as soon as possible: first, on the premise of resolutely accomplishing the annual target of "double control" of energy consumption, combined with GDP growth expectations, calculate the annual control target of total energy consumption, and decompose it to key energy use units. At the same time, we will formulate an energy reduction plan for key energy-using enterprises with an annual comprehensive energy consumption of more than 50,000 tons of standard coal in the second half of the year, and implement it according to ten- Second, it is necessary to implement orderly energy use regulation and control programs, strengthen energy use tracking and monitoring, and take more stringent emergency control measures if necessary. Third, it is necessary to immediately launch a round of special monitoring of energy conservation and environmental protection of the stock "two high" projects. Fourth, the nine districts and cities whose energy consumption intensity rose instead of falling in the first half of the year immediately suspended the energy conservation review of this year's "two high" projects (except for major projects planned and arranged by the state).

On September 2, 2021, a safety accident occurred in Wangjialing Mine of Shanxi China Coal Huajin Energy Co., Ltd. According to the Circular of the General Office of Shanxi Provincial people's Government on issuing and issuing regulations on further strengthening Coal Mine Safety production (Jinzheng Office Fa (2012) No. 34), the following decisions are made: first, order Wangjialing Mine of Shanxi China Coal Huajin Energy Co., Ltd. to stop production for rectification for not less than one month from now on. And send more than 2 personnel to keep watch at the scene, responsible for supervising the rectification of the mine, and strictly prohibit it from engaging in underground mining operations. Second, revoke the first-class standardization grade of Wangjialing Mine of Shanxi China Coal Huajin Energy Co., Ltd.

Driven by the economic recovery, India's domestic electricity consumption has increased sharply. At the same time, India's domestic energy supply is very tight due to insufficient import capacity and declining domestic capacity. Industry insiders expect that with the further strengthening of India's economic recovery, India's domestic energy demand will further rise, and India is bound to import more energy such as coal from overseas markets.

According to the Shanxi Provincial Department of Emergency Management, in order to strictly prevent the occurrence of water disasters, Shanxi issued the "notice on carrying out the Special Inspection of Coal Mine Water disaster Prevention and Control in the whole Province." from September to October this year, the whole province has carried out special inspection of coal mine water disaster prevention and control. All coal mines that have serious flooding and continue to organize production and construction without taking effective measures and failing to strictly implement the "Special provisions of Shanxi Province on strengthening Coal Mine Safety production work" will stop production and rectify in accordance with the law.

[Guinean "regime change" leaders announce dissolution of government Simandou iron ore project may become market concern] according to the Russian satellite network on Sept. 5, Guinean "political bian" leaders announced the dissolution of the government, the suspension of the constitution and the closure of the border. According to customs data, China imported only 319000 tons of Guinean iron ore in 2020 and 798000 tons of Guinean iron ore from January to July 2021, accounting for a very small proportion of China's total iron ore imports and little impact on the domestic iron ore market. However, whether Simandou Iron Mine in Guinea can be successfully put into production or become a hot spot in the market. "check the details

[Ya Hua Group: developing Trigg Hill Tantalum Lithium Project with Eastern Iron] on Sept. 6, it was reported that Ya Hua Group will cooperate with Eastern Iron to develop Trigg Hill Tantalum Lithium Project. The two sides will set up a joint venture for the exploration and development of the project, and Ya Hua Group will be granted the preemptive right to purchase lithium ore in the joint venture company. The Trigg Hill project is located east of Pilbara, Western Australia, and the existing port is Port Hedland, an old tantalum and tin mine operating in the 1960s and early 1980s, which contains spodumene and lithium mica resources and will receive an application for an exploration license in December 2021. Samples from Lithium Australia in 2018 confirmed the presence of up to 2.9% Li2O of lithium mica in the pegmatite samples of the project.

[Xingyuan material reply concern letter: according to the capacity planning company will have sufficient production capacity to meet the new procurement demand of LG new energy] Xingyuan material reply concern letter, the company's wet coating diaphragm field production capacity increased from 30.5 million square meters at the end of 2018 to 490 million square meters at the end of July 2021. The company makes an in-depth layout in the field of wet diaphragm and coated diaphragm in advance, and signs supply agreements with major equipment suppliers to ensure the supply of equipment needed for capacity construction. If there is no significant adverse situation in the construction of related projects, according to the company's capacity planning, the company will have sufficient production capacity to meet the new procurement needs of LG new energy.

Special report: the achievements of metal enterprises in the first half of 2021 are good news one after another!

Enterprises in the cobalt and lithium industry chain have reported good news in the first half of 2021!

Iron and steel industry chain enterprises have reported good news in the first half of 2021!

Terminal information

[semiconductor analyst: what do other customers feel about TSMC's price increase of only 3% for Apple] for rumors that TSMC raised the contract price by 20%, but only 3% for big customers, Lu Xingzhi, a well-known semiconductor analyst, said that when TSMC did so, how could other customers such as MediaTek, Nvidia and AMD stand? There are three other key points that need to be observed. According to Taiwanese media reports, Lu Xingzhi posted on Facebook that Apple orders account for more than 20% of TSMC's revenue, but its profit accounts for less than 20% and its gross profit margin remains below average. Why TSMC gives such customers special offers is worth pondering.

(special topic on SMM: the "core shortage" under the epidemic in Malaysia is getting worse. Recently, under the repeated outbreaks in Malaysia, the seventh largest semiconductor exporter in the world, a number of auto giants, including Toyota, Volkswagen, Ford, and General Motors, have frequently issued production reduction notices. In view of the severe impact of the epidemic, senior executives of Malaysian chipmakers have revealed that the company is considering adjusting some product lines to other countries for production. "View details

[loss of global automobile production caused by lack of core has reached 7.327 million vehicles] according to the forecast data of AutoForecast Solutions, the global loss of automobile production caused by lack of core has reached 7.327 million as of September 5. AFS now estimates that worldwide production losses due to lack of cores will reach 8.547 million this year.

[Daimler CEO: chip shortage may last until 2023] Daimler's CEO said on Sept. 5 that the surge in demand for semiconductor chips means it may be difficult for the automotive industry to procure enough semiconductor chips next year or even 2023, but the supply shortage should be less severe by then.

Hara Chengyin, general manager of the National New Energy vehicle Technology Innovation Center and secretary-general of the China Automotive Chip Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance: the industry expected that the chip shortage would improve in the middle of next year. However, due to the continuation of the epidemic and unexpected industrial situations such as the Renesas plant fire, the chip supply shortage may drag on for longer. It is expected that global production will be reduced by about 7 million to 8 million cars this year.

[Hyundai: only electric vehicles in Europe from 2035] according to Yonhap news agency on September 6, Hyundai unveiled a strategic blueprint for electrification at the "2021 German Automobile and Smart Travel Show" (IAA Mobility 2021, which opened in Munich on the 6th. It has decided to promote only pure electric vehicles in Europe from 2035, and strive to increase the proportion of electric models sold in the global market to 80% by 2040.

[South Korea's SK signs battery supply contract with China's Xiaopeng Motor] South Korea's SK Innovation has signed a battery supply contract with Chinese electric car company Xiaopeng Motor, South Korea's Electronic News reported on the 5th. Industry sources said Xiaopeng had previously been supplied with all batteries by the Chinese company Ningde Times. After a joint venture with Beijing Automobile last year in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, China, Xiaopeng signed a contract with Xiaopeng in July to supply it with high-nickel batteries with 80 per cent nickel content. This means that SK Innovation has entered the battery supply chain of electric vehicles in China.