Lithium Prices Well Positioned to Enter the “Long Bull Market”

On October 2(nd), Sigma Lithium has suspended all mining and industrial activities at its Grota do Cirilo operation in Brazil, its sole producing asset, pending a federal appeals court ruling on a preliminary injunction over its environmental licences. Brazil's national mining agency (ANM) had ordered mining halted on the eastern slope of the north pit. Concentrate output from the site is halted during the suspension, and sales of lithium fines continue. Sigma pushed back its 12-month production guidance of 240,000 mt by three months and maintains its FY2027 target of 330,000 mt of concentrate.

Lithium Argentina confirmed a Stage 2 expansion at the Cauchari-Olaroz salt lake project in Argentina, adding 45,000 mt/y of lithium carbonate capacity and lifting total capacity to 85,000 mt/y. Of this, an initial 10,000 mt/y module using adsorption direct lithium extraction (DLE) is expected online in 2028. This estimates after-tax NPV at $3.1 billion and IRR at 28.5% at a lithium carbonate price of $18,000/mt, with operating costs of $5,006/mt. Total investment for Stage 2 is $1 billion. The project remains subject to regulatory approvals, and detailed engineering for the initial module is due later this year. The additional supply is scheduled from 2028 onward.

Patagonia Lithium completed a 72-hour pump test at well eight on its Cilon concession, with a flow rate of 2,043 litres/hour and 146,800 litres extracted. Lithium concentration reached 232 ppm at 250m depth. About 34 kg of lithium was pumped, equal to 180 kg of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). In the 24-hour recovery test, the water level returned from 52.4m to the static level of 3.64m. The company identified an aquifer zone of interest between 226m and 324m depth and is updating its mineral resource estimate, with a scoping report to follow. The project is at the exploration stage, and no production timeline has been announced.