[SMM analysis] the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan has increased obviously, and the price of iron and lithium will continue to rise in the future.

SMM7 March 30: the price of lithium iron phosphate fluctuated in July. By the end of July, the average price of lithium iron phosphate power had risen to 52000 yuan, up about 2000 yuan / ton from the average price of 50,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month.

At the beginning of the month, some downstream battery enterprises stored material stocks for the second half of the year, demand increased, iron and lithium prices rose slightly. By mid-July, the prices of lithium iron phosphate raw materials, lithium carbonate and iron phosphate all rose sharply. In terms of iron phosphate, Yunnan began the second round of power restrictions in mid-July. As the production concentration of phosphorus chemical industry, this power restriction resulted in a sharp decline in the operating rate of local yellow phosphorus manufacturers, a shortage of spot supply and an upward price. With the rise in the price of raw materials, the price of iron phosphate in mainstream iron phosphate manufacturers has been raised to about RMB1.35-14500, which is generally upwards of RMB 1000-2000. Some manufacturers quoted prices up to 1. 6-17000 yuan, but there were fewer transactions in this price range. At the same time, in the middle of the month, some traders of lithium carbonate in the upper reaches hoarded and sold goods, and the price of industrial carbon went up, while the downstream lithium iron manufacturers had less iron phosphate inventory, and some of them replenished the stock in the middle of the month, driving the price of iron and lithium up.

At the end of the month, most yellow phosphorus factories in Yunnan were notified of power cuts again, the operating rate declined, the industry inventory was on the low side, and some phosphoric acid factories in Sichuan and Hubei stopped production. At the end of the month, the prices of most ferric phosphate manufacturers went up again, and the mainstream quotations went up to about 16000 yuan / ton. Most downstream lithium iron phosphate plants also intended to increase, with prices rising at the current raw material end, and downstream demand not reduced. Under the condition that the profit of the iron lithium plant is still thin and the supply and demand is still tight, it is expected that the future price of lithium iron phosphate will still rise at the beginning of the month with the replenishment of downstream battery enterprises.

SMM New Energy Research team

Mei Wangqin 021-51666759

Huo Yuan 021-51666898

Liu Xiaoyi 021-51666716

Yuan Ye 021-51595792

Ren Pengfei 021-51595913