[SMM Metal Morning reference] Today's metal market outlook |

SMM Morning Review

SMM Iron and Steel Morning meeting minutes: iron ore: yesterday even iron weak finishing, the port spot market early quotation than Wednesday basically maintained stability. Coke: yesterday, the Shanxi coke market was running steadily, and the coke rising atmosphere was gradually strong. Thread: yesterday, the snail rose rapidly at the end of the day, the spot price was weak and stable, and some cities were pulled up by the release of trading at the end of the day.

The scope of reducing production and limiting production is expanded. Steel prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall.

The market closed overnight.

/ * the outer disk metal was mixed yesterday, copper futures fell for two consecutive days, overnight Lun copper closed down 1.28%, Shanghai copper closed down 0.74%, and investors were cautious before the Fed meeting. Lun Zinc also recorded a second straight decline, closing down 0.13%. The rest of the metals rose to varying degrees, with Lun aluminum rising the most, reaching 1.45%, which was at its highest level in more than two weeks in intraday trading.

[overnight market] Metals rose and fell each other, and the three major indexes only closed higher.

On the dollar, in the early hours of this morning, the Federal Reserve said in a policy statement issued by the Federal Reserve that although the number of cases of novel coronavirus infection is still increasing, the US economy is recovering and some progress has been made towards the goal of curtailing quantitative easing. however, it is not enough to begin to withdraw from the easing policy. this statement does not specify when the Fed will scale back its asset purchases, and the committee will continue to evaluate it at future meetings. After the news, the dollar index plummeted and finally closed down 0.22%, recording three consecutive declines. A weaker dollar will provide some positive support for the metal market.

Today, we will focus on the published values of a series of economic data from Europe and the United States, focusing on the initial annualized quarterly rate of actual GDP in the United States in the second quarter and the number of first-time jobless claims in the week ending July 24, in order to observe the impact on the trend of the dollar.

[macro outlook] pay attention to the initial annualized quarterly rate of actual GDP in the United States in the second quarter * /

In terms of US stocks,

In terms of crude oil,

In terms of precious metals,

LME inventory

Macro focus

The Chinese Earthquake network officially determined that a magnitude 8.1 Earthquake occurred in the sea south of Alaska (55.40N, 158.00 W) 14:15 on July 29th, with a focal depth of 10 km.

[magnitude 5.7 Earthquake earthquake focal depth 20 km] official determination by the Chinese Earthquake network: a 5.7 magnitude Earthquake earthquake occurred in Myanmar (22.70N, 96.04E) 16:39 on July 29th, with a focal depth of 20km.

[China rejects World Health Organization (WHO) 's second stage traceability plan? Foreign Ministry response] it is reported that recently, the United States and other individual countries claimed that China rejected World Health Organization (WHO) 's second-stage traceability plan. Zhao Lijian stressed that the second phase of the traceability plan was put forward unilaterally by the World Health Organization (WHO) Secretariat and was not unanimously agreed by WHO member states. World Health Organization (WHO) is led by the member States, and the draft work plan for the second phase proposed by the Secretariat is for discussion by the member States, and the member States have the right to make amendments. The responsibility of the Secretariat is to facilitate full consultation and agreement among member States and does not have the right to make their own decisions.

[pan Gongsheng: steadily promoting high-level capital account opening up and trade and investment liberalization and facilitation] centering on the reform and opening up of the foreign exchange field under the new development pattern, Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the people's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in an article in China Foreign Exchange on the 29th that foreign exchange management departments should sum up the historical experience of reform and opening up in the field of foreign exchange and promote the opening up of high-level capital accounts in an orderly manner. We will raise the level of cross-border trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, effectively prevent and defuse the risks of cross-border capital flows, and better serve the new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way.

[development and Reform Commission: the improvement of the timeshare price mechanism has reasonably widened the peak-valley price gap and released a strong price signal for promoting the development of energy storage. The relevant responsible person of the National Development and Reform Commission said in response to a reporter's question on the "notice on further improving the timeshare price mechanism." this time, the current timeshare price mechanism has been further improved mainly from six aspects, of which the biggest bright spot is the reasonable widening of the peak-valley price gap. This releases a clear and strong price signal to guide power users to cut peaks and fill valleys and promote the development of energy storage.

[Ministry of Commerce: actively promoting Sino-Japanese green and low-carbon third-party market cooperation] on July 29, a seminar on promoting green and low-carbon third-party market cooperation between China and Japan was held in Wuhan, Hubei Province. This year is the beginning of China's 14th five-year Plan. China will actively implement the new development concept, adhere to the development path of ecological priority, green and low carbon, and face new opportunities to expand cooperation space with Japan in the field of green and low carbon. The third-party market cooperation between China and Japan is an effective way for both sides to carry out green and low-carbon cooperation with relevant countries. It will build a bridge for the efficient docking of green resources, products and services between China and Japan and the green development needs of the host country, and has broad prospects for development.

[national Health Commission: implementing the three-child birth policy in accordance with the law to abolish social support payments] the State Health Commission issued a circular on implementing the decision of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on optimizing the Fertility Policy and promoting the long-term and balanced Development of the population. The circular requires that the policy of giving birth to three children be implemented in accordance with the law. It is necessary to make an in-depth assessment of the population development situation in the region, the basis of work and the risks of policy implementation, and scientifically formulate implementation plans. Promptly request the provincial people's congresses or their standing committees to revise the regulations on population and family planning of their provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), focusing on fertility regulation, incentives and social security, universal child care services, family planning services and legal responsibilities. Abolish social support payments, clean up and abolish relevant penalties, and completely decouple household entry, enrollment, employment, etc., from individual fertility. We should follow the principle of unity of the legal system, pay attention to the coordination with the superior law, and do a good job in the connection of reward, support, restriction and punishment measures before and after the implementation of the three-child birth policy.

[the national cumulative report on novel coronavirus vaccination exceeded 1.6 billion doses] according to the State Health Commission, as of July 28, 2021, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps had reported a total of 1.601249 billion doses of novel coronavirus vaccination.

[report: 26.5% of the world's population has been vaccinated with at least one dose of novel coronavirus vaccine] according to the Global novel coronavirus Vaccine Application Picture report jointly released by the Boao Forum for Asia and the Chongyang Institute of Finance of the people's Congress on the 29th, as of July 20, 2021, the world has received 3.7 billion doses of novel coronavirus vaccine, 26.5% of the world's population has been vaccinated with at least one dose of novel coronavirus vaccine, and at least 209 countries and regions have begun to promote vaccination.

Today's focus

[brief review of SMM copper futures: the main force of Shanghai Copper's recovery is hindered, the weak operation is slightly green] on the macro side, last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the economy had made progress towards the goal needed to reduce the size, but there were still risks in the economic outlook, and there was still "some way to go" before raising interest rates. The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, basically in line with market expectations. However, due to the early market bets, good or has been cashed in advance, this interest rate meeting has a limited impact on copper prices, will still maintain a high shock. "View details

[SMM data: the weekly inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 51000 tons to 758000 tons] on July 29th, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 758000 tons, weekly storage of 51000 tons. At present, the blockage of Longhai section in Henan Province is still gradually dredging, but the shipping efficiency is still low, which suppresses the arrival of warehouses in Gongyi and Wuxi, and the level of warehouse delivery is OK; the arrival of goods in South China is also relatively limited. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of logistics on inventory. "View details

[national Aluminum Bar inventory Weekly Review: aluminum rod inventory decreased by 20600 tons to 99000 tons month-on-month under the impact of the flood] data Review: according to the weekly output of aluminum bars released by SMM on Monday, the weekly output of aluminum bars increased by 6700 tons to 53200 tons compared with the previous week, an increase of about 14.4%, mainly due to the "relatively low" aluminum prices during the week. SMM statistics of the latest aluminum bar inventory data show that the current aluminum bar inventory fell 20600 tons from last Thursday to 99000 tons, a decrease of 17.2%. "check the details."

[SMM lead brief Review: lead reverses the decline challenge Wanliu pass] within days, the main 2109 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 15920 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the session, the short positions gradually increased, and the lead period fell rapidly, touching the intraday low of 15855 yuan / ton. After that, the lead position gradually pulled up, and the intraday moving average position did not fall steadily, and the intraday low was explored again. Then the bulls entered, and the lead low was supported and fluctuated upwards. in the afternoon, the lead broke through the intraday moving average and strengthened rapidly, and maintained a high shock after hitting the intraday high of 15995 yuan / ton in the late afternoon. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: the second batch of zinc ingots of the State Reserve ends the inventory change and affects the trend of zinc price.] the State Reserve Bureau has sold and stored twice, which has made up for the recent reduction in smelting in Yunnan, Guangxi, Henan and other places due to power cuts and other factors, and has played a balancing role in market supply and demand. However, due to the first batch of dumping and storage, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is still low, and the power production limit continues in some areas, and the disturbance to the supply side still exists. At present, it is still nearly half a month before the second batch of stock is sold downstream. If the current inventory still does not see a continuous accumulation, it is still difficult to shake the current zinc price valuation, short-term zinc price or. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: what is the impact of the domestic cancellation of export tax rebates on iron and steel products on zinc consumption? The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the cancellation of export tax rebates for iron and steel products: starting from August 1, 2021, the export tax rebates for some iron and steel products will be cancelled. The specific implementation time shall be defined by the export date indicated on the customs declaration of the export goods. According to the detailed rules for the announcement of the list of iron and steel products that cancel the export tax rebate. "View details

[SMM tin brief review: Shanghai and tin bulls test Niudao market vitality gradually recovered] Today's trend reflects the enthusiasm of the main funds to participate to a certain extent, but whether the follow-up can be sustained still needs to pay attention to whether the follow-up prices can break through the important points and cooperate with the sustained participation of funds. "View details

[SMM News: supply-side gap has not alleviated. Shanghai Nickel has risen more than 1% expected to remain high for a long time] Today, Shanghai Nickel continued to fluctuate in intraday trading. By the end of the day, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was at 147500 yuan / ton, up 1.01%. Last night, the contract price of Shanghai Nickel fell to 145000 yuan / ton, stabilized, rebounded to near the opening price, and walked out of a similar V-shaped trend. In early trading today, the price of Shanghai Nickel contract fell back to the first line of 145000 yuan / ton, and then rebounded to near the opening price, coming out of a similar V-shaped trend. Shanghai Nickel pulled up sharply, rising to 147670 yuan / ton at one point, but then fell back and continued to shake. Renni rose in intraday volatility today, rising 1.3 per cent to $19770 a tonne as of around 15:30 in the afternoon. "View details

[SMM comment: the market price of nickel and chromium raw materials continues to rise to support the opening of steel mills in Taiwan in August] SMM, July 29: according to SMM understanding, stainless steel upstream steel mills in Taiwan will open the August price this week, due to the steady rise in international nickel prices, Aoyama quotes for Taiwan continue to rise, accumulating at least US $150 / metric ton, downstream thinks that the market price of steel mills in August will rise, and the increase is expected to be not small. The circulation of stainless steel sheet pointed out that the international nickel price has been on an upward trend since nearly a quarter, with the spot price averaging about $16000 in March and rising all the way up. "check the details.

[SMM thread inventory: the decline in total inventory has narrowed in the third week] the total inventory of building materials nationwide this week is 11.3462 million tons, 22700 tons less than last week, month-on-month-0.20% (previous value-0.74%), year-on-year + 1.82%. "check the details.

[SMM Analysis: export tariff adjustment for iron and steel products landed, export tax rebate for coated strip and cold-rolled strip was cancelled] on the 29th, the tariff Commission of the State Council issued a notice: in order to promote the transformation, upgrading and high-quality development of the iron and steel industry, the tariff Commission of the State Council decided to further adjust export tariffs on some iron and steel products from August 1, 2021. "View details

[SMM blast furnace operating rate: production reduction encountered high off-season steel price shock] on the supply side, the Tangshan area again spread the news of stopping and tightening production restrictions, which further increased the local production limit and production reduction expectations, and the market quotation rebounded. Under the current safety production pressure, superimposed production reduction expectations in the second half of the year, steel mills have a strong willingness to raise prices, which is bullish and falling less as a whole, forming a support for steel prices. In terms of demand, rainfall in North China overlaps "typhoons" in South China, and demand continues to be weak. Torrential rains will continue to affect downstream construction and transportation. It is difficult for short-term demand to improve, creating pressure on rising steel prices. "View details

[SMM hot coil inventory: under the influence of extreme weather and pollution weather, hot rolling is still a small stock] SMM Steel: this week, the total inventory of hot rolled coil is 4.0644 million tons, compared with last week + 9200 tons, month-on-month + 0.23%, year-on-year + 4.67%. Hot rolling production fell further this week, and the decline expanded, but the demand side affected by typhoons, torrential rains and other natural disasters, hot rolling demand Synchronize fell, hot rolling total inventory still accumulated slightly compared with the previous month. "View details

[SMM Electrolytic Manganese Daily Review: manganese Price short-term rising trend] Today, the domestic electrolytic manganese spot continues the rising trend. Individual purchasers inquire a little about the mainstream spot quotation of 25000 yuan / ton. The current wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, but under the rigid demand, the spot resources are tight and do not receive many goods, and a small amount of trading by manufacturers is obvious. The solicitation and pricing of electrolytic manganese and manganese ingot manganese ball steel in August is the focus of the market. During the period of rising domestic manganese prices, overseas ports' quotation range Synchronize strengthened, which SMM believes is short-term. "check the details.

[SMM Daily Review: metal silicon market fluctuations large export traders suspend quotations] today Huangpu Port 330 silicon in 16000-16100 yuan / ton. Most silicon factories are in the stage of no quotation and no order, so there is no stock. "View details

[SMM Daily Review: active inquiry prices for terbium oxide] on Thursday, enquiries on the spot market for rare earths were active, and the prices of a number of products rose. Terbium oxide rose significantly, the mainstream transaction in the morning at 810-8.2 million yuan / ton, at noon, most of the holders do not take the initiative to quote, individual said that less than 8.5 million yuan / ton spot hard to find. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[the State Grain and material Reserve Bureau successfully released the second batch of copper, aluminum and zinc reserves] the State Food and material Reserve Bureau today released the second batch of national reserves of copper, aluminum and zinc, totaling 170000 tons. In the near future, the State Grain and material Reserve Bureau will continue to carry out follow-up work according to market supply and demand and price trends.

[some aluminum plants in Yunnan are affected by power cuts again] according to SMM, due to the lack of power supply capacity in Yunnan province, Yunnan Electroweb has begun to require some aluminum electrolysis plants to reduce their power load, and some enterprises are required to limit the power load to 30%.

[SMM analysis: the auction price gap of the second batch of aluminum ingots has narrowed]. On July 29th, the starting price of the second batch of aluminum ingots was 300-500 yuan / ton higher than that of the first batch, and the maximum price limit was 600-800 yuan higher. The high-end price of the second batch of aluminum ingots is 600-900yuan / ton higher than the spot price of SMM on the same day, while the price difference of the first batch of high-end aluminum ingots is 900,900 yuan / ton higher than the spot price of the day. With the increase in the number of bidders, the difference between the auction price and the spot price of the day narrowed. Need to pay attention to three points: 1. There is still a distance of about 3 weeks between the successful auction time and the goods outflow time, that is, the aluminum ingot outflow has little impact on the short-term spot; 2. High-end price limit increase feedback downstream enterprises to improve the recognition of this price, the supporting role of 18600-18800 yuan / ton may be reflected in the future; 3. After the auction, the disk pressure in recent months is reflected to a certain extent, and the contango structure of Shanghai Aluminum continues in recent months.

[transaction prices for the second batch of zinc ingots sold and stored by the State Reserve] SMM, July 29, the second open bidding for zinc ingots dumping and storage by the State Reserve Bureau officially began at 9:00 today, and the bidding period is from 9:00 to 12:00 and from 13:00 to 18:00. With the progress of the bidding, the price limit of the auction surfaced, and the bidding enterprises also closed the deal one after another. As the storage location of the national storage zinc ingots is more scattered, the bidding brand specifications are uneven, in addition to zinc, there is no shortage of zinc, zinc and imported zinc, the transaction price is more different than the first transaction price. At present, the minimum and maximum transaction prices we have learned are as follows:

[Guangxi province has tightened power restrictions, the number of electric furnace steel mills has increased] recently, due to the influence of electricity, the operating rate of electric furnace enterprises in Guangxi continues to be at a low level. As of Tuesday, the operating rate of electric furnace in Guangxi is less than 50%. The relevant mainstream steel mills have slightly lowered the sales requirements of agents. According to SMM research, on the 29th, another electric furnace factory in Guangxi Province stopped production due to power constraints, and the local electric furnace operating rate further declined. Due to the weakening demand, the scrap purchase price of electric furnace enterprises in Guangxi was greatly reduced by 70-90 yuan per ton on the 29th. At present, blast furnace and electric furnace enterprises in Guangxi Province have implemented varying degrees of production reduction, and the output of building materials has dropped sharply in the short term. The supply and demand pattern of building materials in South China will change greatly, and the price of building materials will also be strongly supported. The price of steel raw materials represented by scrap steel will be under pressure.

[tariff Commission of the State Council: raising export tariffs on ferrochromium and high purity pig iron] the tariff Commission of the State Council announced that in order to promote the transformation, upgrading and high-quality development of the iron and steel industry, the tariff Commission of the State Council decided to appropriately raise export tariffs on ferrochromium and high-purity pig iron from August 1, 2021, with export tariffs of 40% and 20% respectively.

[Vale: second quarter net profit reached US $7.586 billion annual iron ore production capacity reached 330 million tons] Vale released its financial report for the second quarter of 2021 on July 29th, with a net profit of US $7.586 billion, an increase of US $2.04 billion from the first quarter. Formally adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) was $11.239 billion, a new record.

Recently, foreign media reported that Australian battery metal mining company Jevos Mining will acquire Freeport Cobalt from Koboltti Chemicals Holdings (KCHL). Once this deal is concluded, Jevos will become the second largest refined cobalt producer after China.

With the increasing global attention to environmental issues and frequent orders to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, the market is becoming more optimistic about new energy vehicles in the context of frequent protests against lithium mining in many communities of mineral areas in western countries as the world pays more and more attention to environmental issues and frequent orders to ban the sale of fuel vehicles. The power battery, as the core of new energy vehicles, is naturally sought after by people in the industry. But at present, the world has been facing a shortage of lithium ore, in order to have more say, Western countries are actively seeking to develop domestic battery raw material supply chain. "View details

According to statistics, in the first half of this year, the newly launched lithium iron phosphate cathode material project has a production capacity of about 1.5 million tons, with a total investment of more than 40 billion yuan. Correspondingly, China shipped 124000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials in 2020 and about 175800 tons in the first half of this year.

[Fulin Seiko reply inquiry letter: there is a certain risk of overcapacity in the company's new capacity] Fulin Seiko reply inquiry letter, based on the fact that major enterprises in the industry have launched capacity expansion plans, the company's new capacity has a certain risk of overcapacity, but on the one hand, the company locates capacity expansion in high-pressure solid density lithium iron phosphate products with relatively moderate competition, on the other hand, by flexibly grasping the market supply and demand situation, Timely start the construction of the remaining 190000 tons of capacity, to a certain extent, avoid the construction waste caused by the blind expansion of production capacity and the damage to the interests of listed companies.

[South Korea and Australia sign a 10-year rare earth underwriting agreement to vigorously develop rare earth projects] Australian Strategic Materials Co., Ltd., headquartered in Perth, Australia, reported that it had signed a conditional exclusive framework agreement with a consortium of South Korean investors. The consortium of South Korean investors will invest US $250 million (A $340 million) to acquire a 20 per cent stake in (ASMH) of Australia Strategic Materials (Holdings) Co., Ltd.

Terminal information

[Ningde Times: the energy density of the first generation sodium ion battery reaches 160Wh/kg] on July 29th, Ningde Times said at the sodium ion battery press conference that the energy density of the first generation sodium ion battery developed by the company has reached 160 Whhand kg, which is currently the highest level in the world. The charge can reach 80% after charging at room temperature for 15 minutes. In the low temperature environment of minus 20 °C, the Discharge retention rate is still more than 90%, and the system integration efficiency can reach more than 80%. In addition, Ningde Times also said that the energy density of the next generation of sodium ion batteries will exceed 200Whhand kg. The company also said that it has begun the industrial layout of sodium ion batteries and plans to form a basic industrial chain in 2023.

[Ningde time battery market share ranked first in the world with 29.9% BYD fourth] according to a survey released by South Korean energy market analysis company SNEResearch on the 29th, Chinese battery giant (CATL) ranked first with a market share of 29.9%, while Japan's Panasonic and China's BYD ranked third and fourth with 15% and 6.9% respectively. South Korea's battery troika-LG Energy Solutions, Samsung SDI and SK Innovation-combined global power battery installed market share of 34.9% in the first half of the year, ranking second, fifth and sixth, respectively.

[Samsung SDI executives confirm that Samsung SDI will build its first battery plant in the United States] A few days ago, Samsung SDI senior vice president Son Michael confirmed that the company will build a battery manufacturing plant in the United States because the US government encourages battery manufacturers to set up factories there to take advantage of various tax breaks.

[Xinwanda: with Geely and Zhejiang Gerun set up a joint venture company specializing in the production of HEV (including 48V) power battery pack] on July 28th, Xinwanda agreed to set up a joint venture company Shandong Geely Xinwanda Power Battery Co., Ltd. with Geely Group and Zhejiang Geerun Power Battery Co., Ltd., which mainly focuses on the production of HEV (including 48V) power battery pack.

[Tuobang shares: 175 million yuan won the bid for China Mobile Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery products] Topang announced that it won the bid for the centralized procurement project of China Mobile's communications lithium iron phosphate battery products from 2021 to 2022, the winning bid amount is about 175 million yuan (excluding tax).

[global automakers complain frequently, but the nightmare of "lack of core" will continue.] judging from the financial data recently released by a number of automakers around the world, the "epidemic" is no longer the ghost that haunts automakers in the second quarter of this year, and "lack of core" has become the biggest nightmare that haunts automakers around the world. What is even more frightening is that this nightmare will not end in the short term.

[Xin Wanda: plans to wholly acquire Huizhou Liwei Electronics to optimize the layout of consumer battery industry chain] Xinwanda announcement, subsidiary Zhejiang Liwei Electronics plans to acquire 51% stake in Huizhou Liwei Electronics held by Huizhou Liwei New Energy for about 22.4195 million yuan in cash. Yang Shan's 49% stake in Huizhou Liwei Electronics was acquired with about 21.5403 million yuan in cash. This transaction will help the company to further optimize the layout of the company's consumer battery business industry chain, improve the company's management and decision-making efficiency, and enhance its comprehensive competitiveness.