Sales of semiconductor equipment in Japan will reach US $26.4 billion in the SEAJ:2021 fiscal year, up 22.5% from the same period last year.

(SEAJ) Semiconductor Research and Statistics Subcommittee and FPD Research and Statistics Subcommittee jointly released a report on behalf of 20 Japanese semiconductor companies and senior auditors to forecast sales of semiconductors and FPD (flat panel display) devices in Japan for the fiscal year 2021-2023.

The report points out that due to the increasing overall investment in storage semiconductors and the expansion of investment in logic chip / fab, the Japan Semiconductor equipment Association predicts that sales of semiconductor equipment in Japan will be 2.92 trillion yen ($26.4 billion) in fiscal year 2021, an increase of 22.5% over the same period last year. For fiscal year 2022, projected sales were 3.07 trillion yen (about $27.7 billion), an increase of 5.1%, partly due to a stable level of investment in logic / fab. The association also forecasts sales of 3.22 trillion yen ($29.1 billion) in fiscal 2023, up 4.9% from a year earlier.

FDP (flat panel display) manufacturing equipment was severely affected by the epidemic in fiscal year 2020. As a result, the association forecasts sales of 470 billion yen ($4.2 billion) in fiscal year 2021, up 1.3% from a year earlier. Assuming that new panel mass production technologies can be promoted, sales are forecast to be 480 billion yen ($4.3 billion), up 2.1% from a year earlier. Sales in fiscal year 2023 are forecast to be 500 billion yen ($4.5 billion), an increase of 4.2%, and investment is expected to increase significantly due to the emergence of new technologies.

During the epidemic, global demand for consumer products such as smartphones, personal computers, high-quality televisions and game consoles remained strong. 5G communication has entered a period of large-scale deployment, the progress of remote work and the application of the Internet of things of industrial equipment are widely regarded as the core elements of digital transformation. The rapid growth of global data traffic has promoted the demand for super-large-scale data centers in various countries, which requires higher data processing speed and better power management performance for environmental considerations. The global trend of carbon neutrality accelerates the transition to electric vehicles, which requires large-scale technological innovation in order to meet the expected practical application of self-driving. The semiconductor industry is becoming more and more important.

According to an announcement issued by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS) in June, the growth rate of the global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 19.7% in 2021. In particular, storage semiconductors are expected to grow significantly, with a growth rate of 31.7% in 2021 and about 17.4% in 2022. WSTS also predicts that the entire semiconductor market will grow by 8.8% in 2022, a record high for the second year in a row.

Capital investment in logic / fab will also remain at a high level in 2021, and overall memory investment in the global storage semiconductor industry is expected to remain high due to the full shift from DRAM to DDR5 standards and the renewed demand for NAND flash memory in data centers.

The impact of the epidemic has led to a shortage of TV panels and IT panels for PC, tablets and monitors. Panel prices are soaring and panel makers are giving priority to high-level business. Overall, South Korea and other countries have stopped existing production lines of LCD TVs and delayed plans to switch to new panel production lines that use new technologies.

Although the Japanese market's first round of investment in G6 OLED and G10.5 LED slowed in fiscal year 2021, based on a review of the market environment based on fiscal year 2020, the Japan Semiconductor equipment Association predicts that FPD manufacturing equipment will remain at the same level or grow slightly. In fiscal year 2022, due to new panel manufacturing technology, the use of LTPO technology that reduces power consumption to the extreme, more applications of 1.2micron exposure technology, and the full launch of QD-OLED, including the introduction of IT panels using G8.5 OLED in fiscal year 2023, we can see a historical trend that when a new technology is applied to mass production, sales of FPD manufacturing equipment in Japan will increase.

In terms of Japanese-made semiconductor equipment and FPD manufacturing equipment (note: not limited to the local market, including exports), sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will grow by 22.5% in fiscal year 2021. Sales of FPD manufacturing equipment will increase by 1.3%, and the association forecasts that total sales will be 3.39 trillion yen ($30.6 billion), an increase of 19.1%. For fiscal year 2022, as semiconductors will continue to grow by 5.1 per cent, although FPD will grow moderately, the association forecasts overall sales of 3.55 trillion yen ($32.1 billion), an increase of 4.7 per cent. For fiscal year 2023, the association forecasts overall sales of 3.72 trillion yen ($33.6 billion), an increase of 4.8 per cent.

In terms of sales forecasts for semiconductor manufacturing equipment and Japanese manufacturing equipment (in this case, including exported Japanese-made semiconductor equipment, excluding FPD equipment), sales are expected to reach 2.92 trillion yen ($26.4 billion) in fiscal year 2021 due to a significant increase in logic / fab investment due to the recovery of storage semiconductors, an increase of 22.5% over the previous year. Investment in fiscal year 2022 is expected to increase further to 3.07 trillion yen ($27.7 billion), up 5.1% from a year earlier, and sales in fiscal year 2023 are forecast to be 3.22 trillion yen ($29.1 billion), up 4.9% from a year earlier.

In terms of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and the Japanese market (note: sales of semiconductor equipment in Japan's domestic market), sales are projected to be 990 billion yen ($8.9 billion) in fiscal year 2021, an increase of 23.6%. For fiscal year 2022, due to increased memory demand and increased investment in image sensors, projected sales were 1.12 trillion yen (about $10.1 billion), up 13.1% from a year earlier. In fiscal year 2023, assuming steady growth, sales are projected to be 1.18 trillion yen (about $10.6 billion), an increase of 5.4 per cent.

In terms of FPD manufacturing equipment and Japanese-made FPD equipment (note: including exports), due to the impact of overseas travel restrictions and the time lag between the "move in" of equipment and the actual sales bill in 2020 and 2021, sales of FPD equipment in fiscal year 2021 are forecast to be 470 billion yen ($4.2 billion), an increase of 1.3%. For fiscal year 2022, although large orders are small, investment in new technologies is expected to increase, with projected sales of 480 billion yen ($4.3 billion), an increase of 2.1 per cent. In fiscal year 2023, projected sales rose 4.2 per cent to 500 billion yen ($4.5 billion).