After half a year, the price of silicon is reduced for the first time, and the photovoltaic market is about to pick up. "Photovoltaic grass" soared 500 billion.

According to photovoltaic information, the Silicon Industry Branch released the latest transaction price of solar-grade silicon in China. The price of silicon material dropped this week: the domestic single crystal compound price range is 208220 yuan / kg, transaction average price is 214.2 yuan / kg; single crystal compact material price range is 205218 yuan / kg, transaction average price is 211yuan / kg; single crystal cauliflower price range is 20215yuan / kg, transaction average price is 208.2 yuan / kg. It is worth noting that this is the first time this year that the price of silicon has been cut. With June as the inflection point, silicon began to show a downward trend. With the decline of silicon prices, the middle and lower reaches will also adjust prices one after another, and the photovoltaic market is about to pick up.

Affected by the news, the concept of photovoltaic soared, Jing'ao Technology, Follett, Aixu shares and other stocks rose by the limit, Longji shares rose 8%. By the close, the CSI photovoltaic industry index rose 5.33% yesterday, while stocks in photovoltaic-related sectors rose more and fell less. Among them, "photovoltaic" Longji shares soared 8.59%, the market capitalization is further approaching 500 billion.

The price increase in the upstream of photovoltaic is restrained.

It is worth mentioning that on June 10, Aixu shares in the photovoltaic industry hot and difficult issues forum "report materials on the photovoltaic industry hot and difficult issues symposium" circulated on the network, and stirred up thousands of waves in the photovoltaic industry. Materials, Aixu shares said that the current polysilicon prices continue to rise, is the current part of enterprises deliberately create polysilicon, silicon wafer shortage, hoarding strange, bid up prices.

This triggered a great response from the market. On the same day, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association also issued an appeal, suggesting to resist excessive hoarding of polysilicon and silicon wafer products and driving up prices. It is suggested that the relevant departments should pay attention to the excessive price rise of photovoltaic raw materials such as polysilicon and guide them in a timely manner.

Reflected in the disk, the photovoltaic plate had a brief adjustment on June 15 and June 16 after the Dragon Boat Festival, with a decline of 3.15% on June 16. But soon the plate resumed its uptrend, with data showing that the photovoltaic sector has risen 11.44% in 18 trading days since June 10, and today's bald Dayang line has set an all-time high.

Which downstream links have potential after the price drop of upstream raw materials?

According to the national power industry statistics from January to May released in advance by the National Energy Administration, as of the end of May, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 260 million kilowatts, an increase of 24.7 percent over the same period last year. Solar energy installed capacity increased by 9.91GW.

In fact, at the beginning of this year, Wang Bohua, vice chairman and secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, predicted that China's photovoltaic installed capacity would be 55-65GW in 2021. But since then, due to the unexpected cost pressure of the industry chain, some institutions have lowered their installation expectations to 50GW. Even so, it is less than the installed capacity of 10GW in the first 5 months, and there is still a long way to go from the minimum target.

However, industry insiders believe that this shows that the rush to install in the fourth quarter may be more considerable. The second half of the year has been the peak season for photovoltaic installation, and there is no problem with meeting expectations. According to the situation in 2020, the photovoltaic installed capacity in the first three quarters was 18.7GW, but in the fourth quarter photovoltaic rush installation reached a 29.5GW installed capacity, the new installed capacity reached a new high in nearly three years.

At present, the more certain opportunity in this year's rush to install comes from the photovoltaic equipment opportunities brought by the heterojunction technology route.

Heterojunction battery is a new technology route to replace the current PERC battery because of its higher conversion efficiency. Once the cost falls below the PERG battery, the replacement process is fully under way. At that time, whether it is the existing old players in the photovoltaic field, or the new players who covetously intend to kill in the periphery, they will adopt the heterojunction battery route on a large scale. At that time, the equipment companies related to heterojunction batteries will receive a large number of orders.

In the photovoltaic field, it usually takes only three years for the new technology route to replace the old technology route. For example, it took three years for monocrystalline silicon to replace polysilicon and three years for PERC batteries to replace traditional aluminum back-field batteries. On this basis, it is speculated that more than 80% of the new market will choose heterojunction batteries, which will occur in 2022, and the full replacement will occur in 2023.

Soochow Securities expects global installed capacity of 150-170GW in 21 years, with an increase of about 25%. In 2022, stock project delay plus high electricity prices stimulate the upsurge of new projects, domestic demand may exceed market expectations, and low levels suggest the gradual layout of photovoltaic leaders. Key recommendations: Longji shares, Sunshine Power, Tongwei shares, Jinlang Technology, Gudway, Jing O Technology, Foster, Trina Solar, CITIC Bo, Aixu shares, Follett, Lin Yang Energy, pay attention to Daquan New Energy, Haiyou New Materials, Xinyi Solar Energy, Jingke Energy, Ates, Jiajiawei Chuang, Yamaton, Saiwu Technology, Oriental Sunrise and so on.