SMM6 March 28: most of the outer metal market was green on Friday, and Lun Copper fell slightly on Friday, as fears that the Fed tightened monetary policy earlier than expected damped some optimism and suppressed copper prices in afternoon trading. But traders said President Joe Biden's acceptance of an eight-year, $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending deal reached by both parties in the Senate helped reinforce expectations of stronger demand. Today, the whole LME metal market is green. As of 09:30, Lun Copper fell slightly, Lun Aluminum fell nearly 0.2%, Lun lead fell nearly 0.3%, Lun Zinc fell nearly 0.6%, Lun Nickel fell nearly 0.5%, and Lunxi was flat. On the domestic side, international copper and Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.5%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.6%, Shanghai nickel fell nearly 0.1%, and Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.1%.
In terms of lead, overnight Shanghai lead bears entered the market to test, falling below the 5-day moving average support level, approaching 15500 yuan / ton first line. Lead ingots at home and abroad are out of stock, but the performance of support for lead prices is different. Lun lead is strong and brushes a new high for another month, while domestic lead in Shanghai shows a pattern of rising and falling, mainly because of loose domestic supply, although there are expectations for the peak season in the follow-up. However, it is not reflected much at present, which makes the long-short game continue. It is expected that the average price of SMM1# lead today.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead is strong on the outside and weak on the inside. The Shanghai lead market is expected to continue the long-short game this week.
Zinc, fundamentals, domestic TC uplink, and consumption off-season galvanized, die-casting plate consumption gradually weakened, the fundamentals of zinc price support weakened, but SMM social inventory decreased again, mainly due to smelter resumption of production is not timely, after the social inventory replenishment superimposed dumping and bidding after the inventory accumulation, zinc prices further down.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] Zinc prices are high in the short term and lack of support in the later stage of shock.
In terms of nickel, the overnight Shanghai Nickel 2107 contract opened at 138000 yuan / ton on Friday, with the night trading high fluctuating. After Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell continuously sent doves to appease the market, the metal market gradually emerged from the inflation panic in the market last week. With the relaxation of macro factors, the financial side finally dared to make a positive response to the strong fundamentals of the nickel market.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Macro-mood relaxation basic facets are positive to cash in the current cycle of nickel or high-level consolidation.
On the tin side, as a result of the epidemic, Malaysia announced the extension of the national "comprehensive blockade" for epidemic prevention for 14 days, that is, from June 15 to 28, MSC, the world's third largest refined tin manufacturer, announced that there was force majeure in shipments to customers, and the market expected that the supply shortage would be more serious, triggering more speculative buying, supporting Lunxi to reach its highest level since 2011.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] supply is in short supply and tin prices have risen strongly.
In terms of black series, threads rose by nearly 0.2%, hot rolls by nearly 0.1%, coking coal by nearly 3.5%, coke by nearly 3.7%, iron ore by nearly 0.6%, stainless steel by nearly 1%. In terms of threads, the main contradictions of the recent black series are: the seasonal weakening of real demand, the advance of the accumulation cycle and the uncertainty of the supply-side output policy, and the expansion of regional production restrictions on July 1st. It is shown as the game before weak reality and strong expectation. Specifically, at a time when the international environment is becoming more and more complex, the national political environment of "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" will not change, and the large-scale carbon peak policy may not be as expected by the market, but the short-term stimulus of the relevant meetings is still there. At present, the toughness of the demand side is OK, but the consumption of real estate steel in the second half of the year is questionable. Under the 14th five-year Plan, the financial strength may be increased, and in the later stage, we need to pay attention to whether the infrastructure can be speeded up after the issuance of special bonds.
[minutes of SMM Steel Morning meeting] short-term iron ore production restrictions are expected to be difficult to release, and port inventories are expected to start an increase.
The previous period of crude oil rose nearly 1.2%, and international crude oil futures closed higher on Friday, recording a fifth consecutive week of gains. Investors remain optimistic about the outlook for crude oil demand against the backdrop of the global economic recovery, pushing oil prices higher. Analysts pointed out that the rise in crude oil prices was due to an improved demand outlook and expectations that supply in the market would remain tight as OPEC was likely to increase production only slightly at the ministerial meeting on July 1.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.5%, Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.1%, and international gold futures prices rose slightly on Friday after US consumer spending was flat compared with the previous month, easing bets on the US Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve / FED) to tighten monetary policy ahead of schedule. The weekly line rose for the first time in four weeks. The data showed that the (PCE) price index of personal consumption expenditure, the Fed's preferred indicator of inflation, was lower than expected in May. The data initially put pressure on the dollar, but since then the dollar has stabilised, slowing gold's rally.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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