Industry cycle demand New Energy vehicle Battery Plate Analysis: high-quality Racetrack under strong support

Core point of view

1. The National New Energy vehicle Index is an index that covers the whole industry chain of new energy vehicle battery and has a high weight of large market capitalization. The National New Energy vehicle Battery Index (New Energy Battery Index) is an index that focuses on tracking battery-related tracks in the A-share new energy vehicle industry, with samples covering upstream resources, mid-stream materials and downstream battery manufacturing industry leaders, focusing on medium and large market capitalization style.

two。 Looking back in history, the revenue of the new energy battery index is significantly higher than that of the wide base index and the similar new energy vehicle industry index in the past five years. The sustained and stable excess income comes from the strong profitability of the New Energy Battery Index, which has an average ROE level of 21.2% in the past five years, which is much higher than the broad base index and similar industry index.

3. The strong demand brought by the policy dividend of the new energy vehicle industry and the advantages of lithium battery are the two major reasons for keeping the prosperity of the battery index at a high level, continuing to outperform the market and similar industry chain index.

The main results are as follows: (1) the industry dividend of new energy vehicles is the basis that the profitability of new energy battery index is stronger than that of wide base. Since 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Council and the National Development and Reform Commission have adopted a series of intensive policies to support the development of new energy vehicles, and the new energy vehicle industry has also entered a period of rapid development.

(2) the diversified demand of the lithium power industry can iron out the fluctuation of the demand downstream of the new energy vehicle, thus obtaining a more stable and higher ROE hub: the core reason why the performance of the new energy battery index is better than that of similar industry index is mainly because its constituent stocks focus on the battery segment industry in the new energy vehicle, so while enjoying the expansion dividend of the new energy vehicle, it superimposes the dividend of the lithium power industry represented by the power battery. And reduce the risk exposure to downstream car companies' delivery fluctuations.

4. The two high-growth tracks are expected to continue to support the long-term excess earnings of the New Energy Battery Index:

(1) in the new energy vehicle industry, the carbon neutralization policy at home and abroad has been strengthened, and the expansion cycle is expected to be extended again.

1) on the domestic side, under the carbon neutralization plan, the reform of the power industry boosts the demand for energy storage equipment. Carbon neutralization planning puts forward high requirements for clean energy substitution in China, and the 14th five-year Plan emphasizes increasing the scale of wind and solar power construction.

2) on the overseas side, carbon neutralization related restrictions in the European passenger car field have landed one after another, and the permeability margin is increasing; in order to catch up with the first echelon position of the industry, the policy of the United States has been strongly tilted to the new energy vehicle industry in recent months, and there is a broad space for growth.

(2) in the lithium industry, the upstream and downstream of the lithium battery subdivision industry chain resonates, and the industry prosperity channel is opened.

1) at the upstream level, the price of lithium salt has entered the upward cycle, and the business is expected to rise in both volume and price.

2) at the downstream level, the epidemic has prompted lithium power enterprises to expand the business of non-power batteries such as energy storage batteries and consumer batteries: on the one hand, the 14th five-year Plan promotes the construction of wind and photovoltaic power and distributed power, and at the same time, various localities have issued policies on compulsory allocation and storage of clean energy, and there is a potential gap in the total installed capacity of energy storage. On the other hand, consumer electronic products show high toughness and high marginal properties under the influence of online education and telecommuting normalization, and consumer battery demand is expected to remain high.

3) Lithium power production Longtou market share continues to increase, and the advantage of R & D investment is significant, enjoying the industry expansion cycle dividend. In terms of revenue share, the proportion of revenue in the lithium power industry in Ningde era has continued to increase since 2016, from 3% to around 7%, and leading companies will continue to benefit significantly from the expansion of new energy vehicles. In addition, horizontal comparison, compared with the international leader, the domestic leading technology research and development advantage is also more significant, which is also conducive to its continued market share advantage.

5. Guangfa National Certificate New Energy vehicle Battery ETF (code 159755, referred to as Battery ETF), the first product to track the new energy battery index, will go on sale on June 24, providing investors with a key investment tool to lay out the new energy vehicle battery index.