Is the big market imminent? Today, the "terrorist data" is coming to the market for fear of violent fluctuations.

In early trading in Asia on Tuesday, the dollar index was basically stable and is now trading around 90.50. spot gold continues to come under pressure after wild swings overnight, and gold is now trading around $1862 an ounce. This trading day, investors will usher in the US retail sales data, known as "terrorist data", which is also the heaviest economic indicator of the week and is expected to trigger wild swings in the market. After the release of US retail sales data on Tuesday, investors will turn their focus to Wednesday's Fed decision, a risky event that is expected to reignite the market.

Gold prices fell as much as 1.7% on Monday as some investors worried that the fed might outline ways to scale back its expansionary monetary policy at its two-day meeting this week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to nearly 1.5% on Monday, also putting pressure on gold.

Spot gold closed at $1865.96 an ounce on Monday, down $11.65 or 0.61%. It hit an intraday low of $1844.52 / oz, down $33 from a daily high of $1877.74 / oz, but then rebounded from its low to above $1860 / oz.

According to an article on Economies.com, a well-known financial information website, gold hit an intraday level of $1845.00 / oz on Monday, then rebounded quickly and is now trading above $1860.00 / oz. As long as gold prices do not break through the $1880.00 / oz level, the bearish scenario will remain valid. Economies.com added that if gold closed below $1860.00 an ounce, it would further confirm that gold continued its expected bearish trend, with a next target of $1825.15 an ounce.

Ross Norman, chief executive of Metals Daily, points out that gold has risen 13% in the past decade, with some profit-taking ahead of the fed's decision.

The Fed will hold a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, local time, and commodity investors will be watching the Fed's views on inflation and the job market.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said some gold positions could be closed before the Fed's policy meeting begins on Tuesday. "the Fed is likely to signal that it will start to scale back its bond purchases, which should depress gold prices," Streible said.

Analysts at TD Securities said in a report: "We believe that gold prices are at risk of further weakening, as rumors of a reduction in the size of the Fed's bond purchases have undermined interest in gold, and capital flows are not particularly supportive."

Ross Norman, chief executive of Metals Daily, said that with signs of rising inflation clearly increasing, there was still concern that the Fed would hint at a reduction in its quantitative easing (QE) policy at the meeting and that the Fed might discuss matters other than the inflation data, all of which would hurt the outlook for gold.

Norman pointed out that the current support for gold prices is likely to be at $1855 / oz, and if it falls below this support, gold prices will fall back to $1840 / oz.

"terrorist data" attacked today.

Us retail sales figures for May are scheduled for 20:30 Hong Kong time on Tuesday. Economists generally expect US retail sales to fall at a monthly rate in May, the first decline since February, reflecting a slowdown in retail sales after an unusually strong 10.7 per cent month-on-month growth in March.

A strong rebound has begun to slow in some sectors benefiting from the economic restart, such as clothing and jewellery, which fell 5.1 per cent last month, and food and beverages, which have slowed significantly since March.

Retail sales data play an important role in determining the current economic situation and prospects in the United States, as retail sales directly reflect changes in consumer spending.

According to authoritative media surveys, the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States is expected to fall 0.6% in May, compared with unchanged last month. Us core retail sales are expected to grow at a monthly rate of 0.4 per cent in May, after falling 0.8 per cent in March.

(chart of monthly retail sales in the United States Source: FX168)

Us retail sales data are known as "terrorist data". Because they usually have a greater impact on financial markets, they are likely to have an impact on the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold.

"in essence, I think nominal retail sales are likely to be strong," said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jeffery (Jefferies). I just think the only thing the market cares about right now is employment, because it's the only thing that can change the Fed's guidelines. "

The monthly rate of retail sales in the United States is expected to decline in May, as car sales fall, financial support for consumers weakens, Americans shift spending from goods to services, and more businesses reopen as vaccination campaigns advance, the report said.

Analysts point out that if the US retail sales data perform better than expected, the dollar is expected to strengthen further, while gold prices are likely to be further hit.

Kathy Lien, managing director of BK Asset Management, wrote that Tuesday's US retail sales report should have a big impact on the release of monetary policy. Despite the appreciation of the dollar, economists expect retail sales to fall by 0.8% in May after stagnating in April. Two months of weak consumer demand and two months of below-average job growth are strong reasons for the Fed to be more patient. A large number of position adjustments and dollar fluctuations are expected after the release of the retail sales report.

Other important U.S. macro data that the market watched on Tuesday included the producer price index ((PPI)) and industrial production data.

"on the data side, we will keep a close eye on retail sales and industrial production," said James Knightley, chief international economist at Dutch International Group (ING). Given that car sales have slowed after strong growth, the former is likely to record negative numbers. In view of the problems in the car supply chain, car prices soar and production is insufficient. "

FX168's weekly gold market survey released on Saturday showed that analysts and traders were bearish on all aspects of gold's trend this week.

"the correction in gold should continue," said Daniel Ghali, commodities strategist at TD Securities. He added that gold prices could fall back to $1850 an ounce in the near future.