Aikodi: net profit caused by the increase in the price of raw materials, short-term pressure, new project orders are full to be released by trams.

Commodity prices have risen continuously this year, with the LME copper price up nearly 36% and the LME aluminum price close to 28%. Generally speaking, the net profit of parts manufacturers is greatly affected by raw materials.

At the same time, supply imbalance, since January this year, some chip companies began to raise prices, Ford, Toyota and other vehicle manufacturers announced production cuts, March Weilai also announced the suspension of production for 5 working days. The problem of "lack of core" in the whole car factory is becoming more and more serious, how much will the relevant parts manufacturers be affected?

To this end, a reporter from the Financial Associated Press recently went to 600933.SH, an aluminum alloy die casting company. Fu Longzhu, the secretary of the company, told the reporter that the impact of chips on the automobile market overseas is weaker than that at home. In the post-epidemic era, the advantage of the head enterprise "Matthew effect" is more obvious, and the chip influence is not great.

Fu Longzhu said that the rise in freight charges for raw materials and containers in the first quarter has led to pressure on net profits. At present, orders for new projects are full, and the proportion of new energy vehicle projects in new projects has continued to increase since 2018. The company's Liuzhou base and Mexico base are under construction, and if all the subsequent mass production, there is still much room for new production capacity.

The lack of core has little impact on raw materials, and the increase in freight is subject to greater pressure.

CNAC data show that the core shortage problem was exposed in December last year, and the industry chain has begun to deal with it, but it will take at least six months to show the effect, and it may take longer for some chips to return to normal supply.

"from the perspective of revenue in the first quarter, the overseas auto market still maintains a high bearing, and from the month-on-month comparison of domestic and foreign sales revenue, the impact of overseas revenue is relatively small." Fu Longzhu said.

At present, overseas revenue accounts for about 66 per cent of Prida's revenue, and the quarterly report shows that the company's Q1 achieved operating income of 801 million yuan, down 5.42 per cent from the previous month.

Thanks to the Fed's unlimited monetary easing, most commodities have hit a decade high in the past year. Under the influence of supply-side reform, the ceiling of electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been set at about 45.538 million tons. Under the "double carbon" goal, aluminum enterprises are under greater pressure to reduce production. In addition, due to the recent drought and electricity production restrictions in Yunnan Aluminum Plant, the supply of short-term production capacity is limited. Recently, the price of aluminum in Shanghai has exceeded 20000 yuan / ton.

In May, the National standing Committee will "call the roll" many times to raise commodity prices. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to attach great importance to the adverse effects of rising commodity prices and curb the unreasonable rise in commodity prices. It is generally believed that the late non-ferrous metal prices may withdraw to a certain extent after accumulating a large increase.

From May 24 to 25, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council inspected Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, where Aikedi is located, to understand the impact of changes in raw material prices on relevant enterprises. Li Keqiang said: "the rise in commodity prices will put too much pressure on large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, and will affect the operation of small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. We should make good use of policies such as tax reduction and fee reduction and inclusive finance to strengthen market regulation and slow down the transmission of price increases to the lower reaches. Enterprises should pay attention to tapping potential and innovation to alleviate the cost pressure. "

Fu Longzhu also believes that under the dual-carbon target and the impact of the mismatch between supply and demand, aluminum prices have risen rapidly in the short term, but in the long run, the upstream and downstream supply chains will maintain a virtuous circle.

The new project orders are full and the production capacity is sufficient to wait for the new energy vehicle business to expand.

Users'"mileage anxiety" causes lightweight design to become the main measure to reduce weight and consumption of new energy vehicles. At present, for every 10kg reduction in vehicle weight, the mileage of pure electric vehicles can be increased by 2.5km. When the weight of a traditional car is reduced by 10%, the fuel consumption is reduced by 6% and 8%.

Under the existing technical conditions, due to the limitations of cost and technology, new energy vehicles mainly use aluminum parts to achieve lightweight. Therefore, increasing the proportion of aluminum alloy die castings is one of the main measures to lighten the weight of new energy vehicles. Huaxi Securities estimates that aluminum alloy will account for nearly 65% of the automotive lightweight market in 2020.

"according to industry research, according to the calculation of 200kg aluminum for a car, 65% is the die-casting process, and there is a market of about 600 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, of which die-casting small parts are about 20%, about 100 billion yuan." Fu Longzhu said.

It is worth noting that Aicodi has recently increased the layout of Xinyuan cars and won new projects or customers of new energy vehicles such as Bosch, mainland, United Electronics, Magna and so on. It is estimated that the new sales revenue of the new energy projects obtained by the company in 2020 will account for about 28%.

"Aikodi's position is that tier-2, supplies tier-1, first and then sells it to the mainframe factory." Fu Longzhu believes that the company has obvious advantages in the field of die-casting small parts, and the current automobile market has changed from an incremental market to a stock market game, and it will be a great challenge to the automobile industry chain in the future. First of all, in the face of changes in product structure, whether small enterprises can keep up with the response speed of customers and the requirements of technological transformation. Secondly, a production line has a large investment, which is very challenging to the financial strength, site requirements and lean production capacity.

Based on the demand of cultivating a long-term and stable supply chain system, most customers want component manufacturers to transform to do similar product supermarkets, so that they can purchase at one time, save costs, improve response speed and stabilize the supply chain. The sudden epidemic last year accelerated the clearance of the industry. " Fu Longzhu analysis said.

In the first quarter, most major international parts companies achieved positive revenue growth. Despite chip shortages and rising raw materials, most parts companies, such as Andoto, Vernell and BASF, raised their performance forecasts for 2021 and are expected to achieve a strong recovery.

Fu Longzhu said that the production capacity of the "New Energy vehicle and Automobile lightweight parts Construction Project" completed by the company last year has not yet been fully released, mainly waiting for the release of orders for new energy vehicles. "at present, the company's new project orders are full. Capacity reserves are adequate. Last year, we bought 118 mu of land in Ningbo to build die-casting capacity, and the production capacity is also under construction in Liuzhou and Mexico. At present, there are 280 mu in total. If all of them are in mass production, there is still a lot of room for new production. "