How does the price of gold re-stand above 1900 US dollars and pull a saw in the future?

SMM5: overnight gold prices fell from four-month highs as yields on the dollar and Treasuries rose, and Fed officials curtailed bond purchases with an open mind to dampen the gold rally. Today, the price of gold rebounded again in intraday trading, and the Comex gold contract returned to more than $1900 in recent months. Gold has risen from $1700 to about $1900 since the beginning of April, driven by factors such as high inflation and the Fed's loose tone.

Earlier, Fed officials spoke intensively again, playing down the inflation outlook, the Fed vice chairman reiterated that inflationary pressures would prove to be largely temporary, and Evans expressed "full support" for loose monetary policy. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell below 1.6 per cent and the dollar index fell near 89, supporting precious metals.

At the same time, the recent ETF holdings of precious metals continue to increase, to a certain extent, indicating that the market confidence in holding precious metals continues to recover. The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust position has seen a net inflow of nearly 26 tonnes so far this month.

Gold prices are now at a key resistance level of 1900, and low interest rates and high inflation have given bulls confidence, but in recent days, Fed officials have frequently talked about scaling back bond purchases and a rebound in the dollar may be bearish for gold. For the future gold price, the market view is not unified:

Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA, said rising US yields and a stronger dollar gave some people an excuse to get out of gold. But we will still see gold continue to rise, and $1950 seems to be a very short-term target.

Analysts at TD Securities (TD Securities) said that while the impact of reducing bond purchases on gold was big, it was too early to talk about scaling back bond purchases to hit the market. However, as the momentum for algorithmic short covering is running out, gold prices are lagging behind the fall in real interest rates, highlighting the growing risk of a pullback in gold prices.

Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst, said gold is still likely to see a further correction because its relative strength indicator has been overbought in the past few days, which is usually a strong correction signal. However, it believes that gold will not fall below the $1875 region until the US data are released. The idea that inflation has peaked and falling US yields still provide good support for gold.

Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at UBS, believes that the recent rally in gold prices may not be sustainable. He believes inflation will flatten in the coming months, Fed officials will weaken their dovish rhetoric and will want to raise nominal interest rates; gold is expected to fall in the coming months.