CHANGSHA, May 20 (SMM) – In the case of the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak last year, global sales of new energy vehicles can still grow against the trend. "Based on the market forecast, the global sales of new energy passenger cars will continue to grow at a high rate of 25% in the next 10 years and reach the level of 30 million units in 2030," said Miranda Mei, senior analyst of lithium battery and materials at SMM.
From the perspective of sub-regional markets, China, Europe and the United States will become the three major driving markets, Mei told delegates at the 6th China International Lithium Cobalt Nickel Summit, which is organised by SMM in Changsha, Hunan province on May 20-21.
According to SMM recycling model, the battery recycling market will break out from 2025, with only 100GWh in 16-20 years and 380GWh in 21-25 years. In 26-30 years, the market will enter the TWh era, with a market scale of 1.2TWh, said Mei.
From the perspective of recycling battery types, lithium cobalt oxide batteries accounted for 24% in the past five years, and this ratio will drop to 3% during 2026-2030. At the same time, the proportion of iron lithium and ternary batteries will follow the power. The development of the automobile market has improved significantly, accounting for 97%.
In terms of metal quantity, the recovery of nickel, lithium and cobalt will also maintain a high growth rate in the future. SMM predict that in 2030, recycled nickel metal will reach 62,000 gold mt, with a compound growth rate of 37%, while recycled lithium will reach 40,000 gold mt, with a compound growth rate of 30%, and recycled cobalt will reach 24,000 gold mt, with a compound growth rate of 13%.
Mei pointed out that there are four major problems in the recycling market including macro-policy supervision to be strengthened, "responsible subject" not equal to "contributing subject", difficult standardized pricing, and white-listed enterprises with little profit.
In the short and medium term, recyclers will build recycling channels with car companies and battery companies to recycle raw materials for their own use and external sales. In the long run, third-party service providers will build C2B2B system.
