The international gold price broke through the 1850 mark and reached a three-month high. Analysis says the rebound will continue, but the height is limited.

Recently, the price of gold has continued to rise. Since the end of March, the price of gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange has risen by more than 10%. Recently, it has broken through the $1850 / oz mark, a three-month high. Market participants said that short-term gold will continue to rebound in stages, but in the context of the overall recovery of the global economy, the rebound in gold prices is high or limited.

Market participants said the gold rebound benefited from a steady rise in expected US inflation and weak long-end Treasury yields and the dollar index. The rebound in gold prices began after the weakening of US 10-year Treasury yields.

In addition, the continuation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the dovish position of the Federal Reserve also provide upward momentum for gold prices, and most investors are bullish on gold. The Biden administration may announce a "truce" agreement with the European Union on metal tariff disputes, which will also be good for gold prices in the short term.

Judging from the performance of ETF positions, the world's largest gold ETF fund has increased its holdings by nearly 20 tons since May, which partly reflects that the market's confidence in holding gold has begun to pick up. Market sentiment has improved significantly, so precious metals are likely to rise further.

Galaxy Futures Research News believes that from a technical point of view, it does not rule out the possibility that precious metal prices may reach recent highs, especially silver or hit 2021 highs. However, after touching or facing the timely settlement of profit trading, the price may go down.

The short-term statement of the Federal Reserve has become the key to influence the trend.

The minutes of the Fed's April meeting, to be released late Wednesday, are expected to be the key to the near-term impact on gold and the dollar. The market expects the Fed to reiterate its easing stance and that inflation is temporary.

Guo Zirui, a strategist at Ping an Securities, believes that the shift in the tightening of Fed monetary policy is the biggest risk to gold prices. Before the Fed announces that it will scale back quantitative easing, the logic of positive gold prices still exists, and the periodic rebound will continue. When the United States has not reached universal vaccination and there has not been a significant improvement in the job market, the Fed is likely to remain partial to the dove attitude, and the golden opportunity outweighs the risk.

Wang Yanqing, a futures researcher at CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd., told the Financial Associated Press that the Fed continued to be partial to the dove position as the US dollar weakened in the short term, or continued to provide support to precious metals. However, in the medium to long term, with the continuous advance of vaccination, the US economic recovery is still the trend of the times, the Fed may gradually reduce the scale of easing, the real yield of US debt has further downside space is limited, and precious metals may be at risk of a pullback.

Market participants also said that at present, US employment is an important window to observe the persistence of the rebound in gold prices. Us employment data are expected to continue to improve in the second half of the year, and gold prices will fall again against the backdrop of high inflation, such as fine-tuning by the Federal Reserve. In addition, the changes in the dollar index and the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI relative to the change in US 10-year Treasury yields are still important factors that affect the trend of gold prices.