SHFE aluminium to continue to fluctuate at highs in the high season

SHANGHAI, May 17 (SMM)—The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at 19,800 yuan/mt last week and closed at 19,315 yuan/mt, down 540 yuan/mt or 2.72%. Longs reduced positions by 92,000 lots to 179,000 lots. LME aluminium dropped 3.79% last week. The outlook for market liquidity is not as optimistic as earlier. The Fed has maintained its stance over monetary easing policy. However, the increase in US PPI in April was higher than expected, triggering market concerns of inflation. Commodity prices fell last Friday after the State Council sent a signal that it would effectively respond to the overheating in commodity prices. 

Domestic fundamentals remain positive and the peak season continues. The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract is likely to remain high between 19,250-20,050 yuan/mt this week. Spot prices are expected to trade at discounts of 0-20 yuan/mt and premiums of 0-40 yuan/mt over the SHFE front-month aluminium contract.

Investment advice: continue to hold short positions on SHFE near-month contracts and long positions on distant-month contracts.