Interpretation of the Bureau of Statistics: China's PMI remained in the expansion range in April, higher than the level of the same period in the past two years

On April 30, 2021, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

In April, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 51.1%, 54.9% and 53.8% respectively, down 0.8,1.4 and 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic operation continued to recover steadily.

I. the purchasing managers' index of the manufacturing industry continues to expand.

In April, the purchasing managers' index of the manufacturing sector continued to expand on the basis of a significant rebound last month, weakening and still higher than the levels of the same period in 2019 and 2020, and the manufacturing sector maintained steady growth. The main features of this month are:

First, the expansion of production and demand at both ends has slowed down. The production index and new orders index were 52.2% and 52.0% respectively, down from 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points last month, indicating that production and demand continued to grow, but the growth rate was lower than that of the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the production index and new order index of agricultural and non-staple food processing, wood processing and furniture, computer and communications electronic equipment and instruments are all higher than those of the previous month, and are located in a relatively high boom range, indicating that the market demand of the above-mentioned industries continues to release, and the production and operation activities of enterprises are further accelerated.

Second, the import and export index remains within the range of expansion. The new export orders index and the import index were 50.4% and 50.6% respectively, down from 0.8 and 0.5 percentage points last month, and were in the expansion range for two consecutive months, reflecting the continued growth of foreign trade business in the manufacturing sector.

Third, the price index is running at a high level. The purchase price index and factory gate price index of major raw materials were 66.9% and 57.3% respectively, both lower than 2.5 percentage points last month and still at a relatively high level in recent years. From the perspective of the industry, the two price indices of raw materials industries such as ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing are higher than 70.0%. Among them, the ex-factory price index of ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing industry is higher than 85.0% for two consecutive months, indicating that the cost pressure of related industries continues to transmit downstream.

Fourth, the prosperity of small enterprises has rebounded. This month, the PMI of enterprises of different sizes remain in the boom range. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was 51.7% and 50.3% respectively, down from 1.0% and 1.3% of the previous month, while the PMI of small enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.4% from the previous month. Both the production index and the new order index rebounded for two consecutive months, indicating that the production and operation of small enterprises has improved recently.

Fifth, business confidence is generally stable. The expected index of production and business activities is 58.3%, which is 0.2% lower than that of the previous month, but it continues to be in a relatively high prosperity range and is significantly higher than the level of the same period in the past two years. The production and operation of enterprises are expected to improve as a whole. From the perspective of the industry, the expected index of production and operation activities in agricultural and non-staple food processing, wood processing and furniture, special equipment, electrical machinery and equipment and other industries are all higher than 60.0%, and enterprises in related industries are optimistic about the recent market development.

At the same time, some survey enterprises reported that the shortage of chips, poor international logistics, shortage of containers, rising freight rates and other problems are still serious. The distribution time index of high-tech manufacturing suppliers has been lower than 44.0% for three consecutive months, the purchasing cycle of raw materials has been continuously extended, and normal production activities have been affected to a certain extent.

Second, the business activity index of non-manufacturing industry is stable and slow.

In April, the index of non-manufacturing business activity was 54.9 per cent, down from 1.4 percentage points last month. The non-manufacturing sector still expanded rapidly, but at a slower pace.

The service sector maintained a steady recovery. Driven by factors such as the Qingming Festival holiday and the continued improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the consumer market in the service industry has further picked up recently. The service industry business activity index for this month was 54.4%, down from 0.8% last month, but 2.0% higher than the average in the first quarter, reflecting a steady and improving momentum of restorative growth in the service industry. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 19 industries' business activity index is in the prosperity range, of which rail transport, air transport, accommodation and other industries are higher than 65.0%, and the total business volume has maintained rapid growth. At the same time, the recovery of some industries greatly restricted by the epidemic was significantly accelerated, and the business activity indexes of accommodation, catering, ecological protection and environmental management, culture, sports and entertainment were at least 1.8 percentage points higher than those of the previous month, indicating that residents' willingness to consume has increased significantly, and market activity has increased.

There has been a pullback in the prosperity of the construction industry. The business activity index of the construction industry was 57.4%, down from 4.9 percentage points last month, still in a high boom range, and the construction industry continued to maintain rapid growth. From the market expectation, the business activity expectation index is 64.8%, which is in the high boom range for three consecutive months, and the confidence of construction enterprises is stable.

Third, the composite PMI output index has dropped somewhat.

In April, the composite PMI output index was 53.8%, 1.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating that the overall progress in the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has slowed down. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, are 52.2 per cent and 54.9 per cent, respectively.