Jinyuan Futures: social inventory continues to remove zinc price to maintain range operation

On Monday, the main force of Shanghai zinc changed months to 2106 contracts, and intra-day prices fluctuated upward, giving up intraday gains at night to close at 21740 yuan / ton, a decline of 0.64%. Lun zinc rose first and then suppressed, closing at 2853.5 US dollars / ton, down 0.16%.

Spot market: the price of zinc ingot in Shanghai market is 21810-21910 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 30 yuan / ton. The discount for zinc ingots is-20,40 yuan per ton, and the discount for Harbin zinc ingots is 80 yuan per ton. Most of the consignors actively ship goods when they are high, but the trading atmosphere in the market is general.

Guangzhou Futures Exchange was officially established, becoming the fifth futures exchange in mainland China. The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that commodity prices do not have a long-term basis for rise. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, 16 fixed asset investment projects were examined and approved in the first quarter, with a total investment of 45.4 billion yuan. The dollar fell overnight, but Treasury yields rose and metals were mixed. The total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM: on Monday was 217700 tons, down 3000 tons from last Friday. LME zinc stocks fell 775 tonnes to 294025 tonnes yesterday.

Fundamentals, the current zinc mine to maintain a tight pattern, imported ore processing fees fell slightly last week, domestic mine processing fees to maintain stability. However, imported mines will be concentrated in Hong Kong from the end of April to early May, coupled with the seasonal recovery of domestic mines, the shortage of raw materials is expected to ease gradually. The current processing fees put pressure on the profits of smelting enterprises, and the month-on-month increment of refining zinc in April is limited, if the supply of raw materials increases or transfers to the refining zinc link in May. Affected by the high price of steel and zinc, the downstream galvanizing enterprises eroded profits, limited production enthusiasm, poor terminal demand, high inventory of finished products, reduced risk of enterprise starting storage and pressure, and stable production of die-casting zinc and zinc oxide enterprises. social inventory continued to go to the warehouse at the beginning of the week.

On the whole, the recent macro optimism, tight supply side and supporting zinc price, but the seasonal performance on the demand side is weak, and the acceptance of high price zinc is poor, which makes it difficult for zinc price to rise continuously, short-term or continuous interval operation. in the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the removal of storage and the change of processing fees.

Operation suggestion: band operation