SMM Evening Comments (Apr 16): Shanghai nonferrous metals closed mostly higher, aluminium fell 0.36%

SHANGHAI, Apr 16 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals rose for the most part on Friday April 16 as China's first quarter GDP print slightly misses expectations.

Tin, the best performer, rose 2.21%, copper advanced 1.69%, lead went up 1.07%, zinc climbed 1.34% and nickel gained 1.25%, while aluminium fell 0.36%.

The ferrous complex closed mixed. Hot-rolled coil decreased 0.06%, rebar slipped 0.14%, while iron ore rose 0.92%.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2106 copper contract finished the day 1.7% higher at 68,540 yuan/mt. Open interest rose 15,000 lots to 176,000 lots.

Domestic medium-term loan facility net investment stood at 50 billion yuan, the interest rate remained unchanged for 13 consecutive months, and the bullish sentiment was strong under the leadership of funds. In terms of US data, US retail sales in March increased by 9.8% month on month, a record high in 10 months. The number of Initial Jobless Claims at the beginning of the week in the US decreased more than expected, and the economic data gave verification to the economic growth of the US. In the absence of macro fluctuation, the market shifted its focus to fundamental logic, and the signal of rapid economic recovery once again gave the market support.

Euro zone CPI and US Housing Starts will be monitored tonight.

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE 2106 aluminium contract finished the day 0.36% lower at 17,995 yuan/mt. Open interest rose 22,581 lots to 247,739 lots. The contract is expected to fluctuate around 18,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Zinc: The most-active SHFE 2105 zinc contract closed up 1.34% at 21,890 yuan/mt. Open interest fell 4,052 lots to 56,964 lots. US bond yields fell, and the Fed reiterated zero interest rates, boosting zinc prices. In the first half of the week, zinc prices adjusted back, and spot market transactions improved. The contract is expected to fluctuate and fall tonight.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2106 nickel contract ended the day 1.25% higher at 123,490 yuan/mt today. Open interest fell 18,077 lots to 151,482 lots. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 135,000 wmt from April 9 to 5.62 million wmt as of April 16, showed SMM data.

Lead: The most-traded SHFE 2105 lead contract rose to an intraday high of 15,065 yuan/mt and ended the day 1.07% higher at 15,045 yuan/mt. Open interest fell 3,465 lots to 45,925 lots. On fundamentals, the influence of the presence of environmental protection inspectors expanded, the scope of production reduction and suspension of secondary lead refineries expanded, and the regionality of the supply side tightened, giving lead prices a certain upward momentum. Whether the contract could stand firm above 15,000 yuan/mt will be monitored tonight. However, the off-season of domestic consumption continued, and the downstream side took a wait-and-see attitude of being afraid of high prices and cautious to purchase when lead prices rose, and the actual purchase obviously reduced. This week is the delivery week, the goods delivered to the warehouse arrive at the warehouse one after another, and the inventory of lead ingots is obviously increasing, giving pressure on the increase of SHFE lead in the future. The environmental impact and whether the premium of secondary lead will expand with the strengthening of lead prices will be monitored in the near term.

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE 2106 tin contract fell to a session low of 180,560 yuan/mt and finished the day 2.21% higher at 183,460 yuan/mt today. Open interest rose 885 lots to 34,702 lots. The main smelting production areas reduced and stopped production. The tight spot will support the trend of SHFE tin. The contract will keep fluctuating strongly in the near term. Pressure above will be seen from 185,000 yuan/mt today. Support below will be seen from 178,000 yuan/mt today.