SMM Morning Comments (Apr 13): Shanghai base metals fell for the most part; China trade data for March ahead

Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices pulled back in the night session yesterday, prompting some downstream enterprises to actively buy the dip. Intraday purchasing demand increased significantly. After low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed, suppliers began to show a willingness to hold prices firm, and subsequently, the momentum for selling at low prices weakened. Regarding market structure, the inter-month price spread has shifted into a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and providing support for spot discounts. On the supply side, the import window briefly opened during the night session, and additional supply from outside China may follow. Overall, with support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at discounts tomorrow, with the discount possibly narrowing slightly.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Tomorrow, following a pullback in copper prices during last night’s night session, some downstream enterprises actively bought the dip, driving a notable increase in intraday procurement demand. After low-priced cargo was quickly absorbed, suppliers showed signs of holding prices firm, weakening the momentum for subsequent low-price selling. Market structure, the inter-month spread has shifted to a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and supporting spot discounts. Supply side, during the night session, the import window briefly opened, potentially bringing in some overseas supply replenishment later. Overall, with combined support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, spot SHFE copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to maintain discounts tomorrow, with the discount magnitude possibly narrowing slightly.