SMM Morning Comments (Apr 13): Shanghai base metals fell for the most part; China trade data for March ahead

Published: Apr 13, 2021 10:11

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Shanghai base metals mostly cruised lower on Tuesday morning, and their LME counterparts also saw broad losses.

SHANGHAI, Apr 13 (SMM) — Shanghai base metals mostly cruised lower on Tuesday morning, and their LME counterparts also saw broad losses.

Looking ahead, China’s trade data for March is expected to be out at around 11 a.m. HK/SIN.

Shanghai base metals all closed lower in overnight trading. Copper shed 0.23%, aluminium slid 0.17%, zinc plunged 2.12%, nickel slumped 2.02%, lead weakened 0.44% and tin slipped 0.8%.

The LME complex, except for lead, moved lower on Monday. Copper dropped 0.64%, aluminium edged down 0.09%, zinc and nickel declined 2.7% and tin fell 0.33%, while lead advanced 0.41%.

Copper: Three-month LME copper shed 0.64% to close at $8,872/mt on Monday, while the most-traded SHFE 2105 copper contract weakened 0.23% to end at 65,910 yuan/mt in overnight trading. LME copper is expected to trade between $8,810-8,890/mt today, and SHFE copper between 65,500-66,000 yuan/mt, while spot premiums will be seen at 30-1010 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium edged down 0.09% to settle at $2,267/mt on Monday and is expected to move between $2,250-2,280/mt today.

The most-active SHFE 2105 aluminium contract weakened 0.17% to close at 17,385 yuan/mt in overnight trading, with open interest rising 1,819 lots to 180,000 lots, and it is likely to fluctuate between 17,300-17,500 yuan/mt today.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc plunged 2.7% to end at $2,759.5/mt, with open interest adding 8,236 lots to 243,000 lots. Zinc stocks across LME-listed warehouses surged by 14,275 mt or 5.33% to 281,925 mt. The $1.9 trillion stimulus plan caused a year-on-year surge of 454% in US federal budget deficit in March. Investors worry that Biden's new infrastructure plan may trigger high inflation. LME zinc is likely to move between $2,750-2,800/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2105 zinc contract settled 2.12% lower at 21,285/mt in overnight trading, posting a tree-day losing streak, with open interest rising 2,591 lots to 71,406 lots. The May contract is likely to move between 21,200-21,700 yuan/mt today, while spot discounts for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen at 10 yuan/mt against the contract.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2106 nickel contract fell 2.02% to close at 121,980 yuan/mt in overnight trading, with open interest adding 785 lots to 159,000 lots.

Lead: Three-month LME lead added 0.41% to end at $1,980/mt on Monday.

The most-active SHFE 2105 lead contract slid 0.44% to settle at 14,735 yuan/mt in overnight trading.

Tin: Three-month LME tin closed 0.33% lower at $25,620/mt on Monday. Investors worried that China, a large metals consumer, will curb commodities prices to prevent potential inflation, and this, combined with concerns on weakening demand and rising inventories, weighed on tin prices. LME tin is expected to move between $25,000-26,000/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2106 tin contract settled 0.8% lower at 177,470 yuan/mt in overnight trading, with open interest adding 393 lots to 31,723 lots. It is likely to fluctuate between 177,000-181,000 yuan/mt today.

Copper Lead Tin Nickel Aluminium Zinc

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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