The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum faces uncertainty during the year.

Inner Mongolia and other places have introduced measures to achieve the goal of "double control".

Electrolytic aluminum as a high energy consumption and high carbon emission industry, the carbon emission of one ton of electrolytic aluminum is about 6.2 times that of iron and steel. In 2019, the carbon emissions of electrolytic aluminum production in China reached 430 million tons, accounting for 5% of the country's total carbon emissions. Therefore, energy consumption "double control" and "carbon neutralization" have a profound impact on the production of electrolytic aluminum industry.

On February 7, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission revealed the results of the "double control" assessment of total energy consumption and intensity in 2019, of which Inner Mongolia did not meet the standards. On March 11, 2021, Inner Mongolia issued a number of safeguard measures to ensure the completion of the double-control target of energy consumption during the 14th five-year Plan, determining the "double-control" measures for energy consumption in the region in 2021, making important arrangements for the entry, examination and approval, increase of holdings, electricity consumption and other high energy-consuming industries such as coal, iron and steel, and electrolytic aluminum, and proposed to implement a differential electricity price policy for eight industries, including electrolytic aluminum. The levy standard for 2021 is 0.1 yuan per kilowatt-hour of restricted class. The next day, Baotou City issued the "Baotou Energy double Control (first quarter) Red warning response measures," requiring the industrial sector to stop production of illegal projects that failed to pass the review of the 13th five-year Plan (excluding comprehensive utilization of resources), and immediately stop construction of illegal projects under construction (excluding comprehensive utilization of resources) that failed to pass the review. From now on to March 31, key energy-using enterprises will take measures to limit energy and electricity to ensure that the "double control" target of energy consumption in the first quarter is achieved.

The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum faces uncertainty during the year.

Affected by the "double control" policy, a total of four companies in Inner Mongolia reduced production in the first quarter, reducing a total of 106000 tons of annual production capacity. Among them, the annual production capacity of Anshun Aluminum Co., Ltd. will be reduced by 16000 tons due to plant maintenance in January 2021; the annual production capacity of Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metals Co., Ltd. will be reduced by 70, 000 tons, and the time of resumption of production has not been determined; and the annual production capacity of Inner Mongolia Jinlian Aluminum Co., Ltd. is reduced by 20, 000 tons due to energy consumption "double control" problem. In the follow-up, Inner Mongolia Huo Coal Hongjun Aluminum Power Co., Ltd. is expected to reduce its annual production capacity by 40,000 tons due to the problem of "double control" of energy consumption. The policy impact will continue to ferment.

In addition, the electrolytic aluminum industry implements ladder electricity price, the standard of differential electricity price is as follows: electrolytic aluminum AC power consumption ≤ 13700kWhshock t, no price increase; 13700kWh/t < electrolytic aluminum AC power consumption ≤ 13800kWhshock t, plus 0.02 yuan / kWh; electrolytic aluminum AC power consumption > 13800kWhhamt, plus 0.08 yuan / kWh. The specific measures include: first, the ladder electricity price of electrolytic aluminum enterprises should be implemented on an annual basis, and the corresponding electricity price standards should be implemented every year according to the actual power consumption level of the previous year; second, according to the situation, timely adjust the AC power consumption classification and price increase standards of ladder electricity price policy for electrolytic aluminum enterprises. Third, starting from 2014, in the first quarter of each year, the provincial industrial authorities should make statistics and verification on the liquid aluminum production and power consumption of all local electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the previous year, determine the AC power consumption of per ton of liquid aluminum electrolysis, and inform the provincial price department of the relevant situation. Fourth, the provincial price department shall make clear the electricity price standards that should be implemented by all electrolytic aluminum enterprises before April 15 every year, announce them to the public, and report them to the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for the record. Fifth, if the AC power consumption of liquid aluminum electrolysis in an electrolytic aluminum enterprise is higher than 13700 kilowatt-hours per ton or the energy saving target is assessed as an unfinished grade, no direct transaction of electricity shall be carried out with the electric power enterprise, but not more than 13350 kilowatt hours per ton, the relevant departments of the people's government at the provincial level shall give priority to supporting its participation in direct electricity trading, and the electricity quantity and electricity price shall be determined through consultation between the two parties. As for the use of tariff increase, 10% of the tariff increase due to the implementation of the ladder tariff policy will be used by Electroweb enterprises to make up for the increased cost of implementing the ladder tariff, and the remaining 90% will go to local governments, mainly to reward advanced enterprises in energy efficiency. support enterprises in energy-saving technological transformation, elimination of backwardness and transformation and upgrading. In addition, for enterprises that meet the standards of transformation within one year, the electricity charges paid by them may be returned appropriately, and the specific measures for the management and use of electricity charges shall be formulated by the relevant departments of the people's governments at the provincial level.

Electrolytic aluminum production includes thermal power production and hydropower production. One ton of electrolytic aluminum in thermal power production emits 11.2 tons of carbon dioxide, while one ton of electrolytic aluminum in hydropower production emits almost no carbon dioxide. The former has high energy consumption, high emissions and remarkable environmental pollution characteristics. In 2020, domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises will consume 13500 kWh, per ton of electrolytic aluminum. Calculated according to the national output of 37.124 million tons, the total electricity consumption for the whole year will be 501.174 billion kWh, accounting for about 6.5% of the electricity consumption of the whole society in that year. According to the data, in 2019, the total carbon dioxide emissions of the electrolytic aluminum industry are about 412 million tons, accounting for about 5% of the country's net carbon dioxide emissions. With the tightening of "double control" and the clarification of carbon peak and carbon neutralization policy, aluminum production in thermal power plants will be under further pressure in the future.

The policy pressure on the supply end of electrolytic aluminum is concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Gansu and other places. under the background of "double control" and "carbon neutralization", local governments raise the production cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises by using step electricity price, so as to reduce the proportion of high energy-consuming enterprises. The annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Inner Mongolia and Gansu is 8 million tons, accounting for 20% of the country's total production capacity. Calculated according to 13660kWh/t-Al per unit power consumption, for every 1 cent increase in electricity price, the unit electrolytic aluminum power cost increases by 136.6 yuan.

In addition to implementing the ladder electricity price policy, in order to achieve the energy consumption "double control" assessment target, Inner Mongolia and other places have introduced measures to actively shrink high energy-consuming enterprises, including stopping new construction examination and approval, compulsory shutdown, and so on. In 2021, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China will face uncertainty.