China Investment Anxin: the contradiction between supply and demand of commodities is still concerned about the opportunity to oversell and rebound.

1. Analysis of Market transaction behavior

In terms of prices, in March 2021, there was a large-scale correction in the domestic commodity futures market. Of the 54 varieties counted, 47 closed down and 7 closed up, which was in sharp contrast to the rise and fall in February. Apple, staple fiber, natural rubber, ethylene glycol and nickel led the decline, while thermal coal, coking coal, hot roll, thread and glass led the increase. Among them, Apple futures hit a new low since they were listed in 2017, glass futures hit a new high since they were listed in 2012, soda ash futures hit a new high since they were listed in 2019, hot-roll futures hit a new high since they were listed in 2014, rebar futures nearly broke the all-time high set in February 2011, and Douyi futures fell back after setting a new high since they were listed in 1994.

Sub-commodity sector, crude oil and downstream chemicals generally fell, the decline of precious metals is difficult to change, agricultural products (5.90-0.17%, clinic stocks) and non-ferrous metals oscillations are weaker, only coal, steel and building materials are strongly oscillating. The relationship between the strength of commodity plate in March is coal in energy > wood in black system > non-ferrous metals > agricultural products > precious metals > chemical industry.

In terms of monthly difference, by the end of March 2021, the varieties with near-strong and far-weak structure are mainly live pigs, iron ore, palm oil, etc., while the varieties with near-weak and far-strong structure are mainly eggs, red dates and so on. The varieties with significantly stronger monthly differences are mainly thermal coal, while those with significantly weaker monthly differences are mainly ethylene glycol, coking coal, soybean oil and Douer.

In terms of volume, in March 2021, the turnover of the domestic futures market increased by 78.93% compared with the same period last year, and increased by 71.46% compared with the same period last year, but our estimated precipitated funds for commodity futures continued to decrease slightly. Among the 54 varieties, there were 38 increments, 16 shrinks, 27 increased positions and 27 reduced positions. The varieties of soda ash, staple fiber and hot roll were the main varieties that significantly increased the volume and increased the warehouse, and the shrinking of pigs and peanuts was more serious.

From the perspective of speculation, the speculative atmosphere in the domestic commodity futures market remained high in March 2021, with oscillatory trends and structural opportunities increasing the turnover rate of the market. Among the 54 varieties in statistics, the number of varieties with a speculative degree of more than 1 (that is, the average daily trading volume exceeds the average daily position) is as high as 39. Among them, the speculative degree of fuel oil, nickel and glass increased significantly, while that of peanut and tin decreased significantly.

two。 Stock-period linkage analysis

In March 2021, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to fully release the demand for a pullback, then swung sideways, with the CSI 300 index falling by-5.4% that month. Relatively speaking, the stock index of the cyclical industry shows obvious resilience, especially the iron and steel, coal mining, textile and clothing industries are out of the landscape different from the market; although the correction range of the chemical industry, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing industry in March is greater than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the cumulative performance of the whole year is still better than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.

Combined with the performance of major commodity indexes, the trends of the two markets in March are relatively consistent, and the strong strength of coal and iron and steel stocks echoes the rise of thermal coal and timber futures prices. Stocks in chemical, non-ferrous metals, gold and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing sectors fell much more than the corresponding commodity futures prices, mainly because the decline of A shares focused on the downward repair of previous strong stock valuations. after all, the rise of stocks in these industries in the past year has also far exceeded the increase in the corresponding commodity futures prices.

3. Strategy suggestion

Under the combined influence of profit-taking of main funds and cooling of re-inflationary trading, the domestic commodity market accelerated its adjustment in March, and the correction in sectors with larger gains from January to February was also on the high side. However, the rate of decline in commodities has slowed at the end of March, and horizontal consolidation has formed the lower edge of an oscillating range, and we do not see any sign that interest in commodity futures positions and speculative enthusiasm will continue to decline. Funds are still keeping a close eye on the commodity market, waiting for a chance to re-enter the market. This opportunity may come from the marginal weakening of the macro dollar index, or from the outbreak of the contradiction between supply and demand of the commodity itself.

Looking forward to April, although it is difficult for the commodity market to resume the general rally, the whole may enter the stage of returning from the lower edge of the oscillation range to the center, and some varieties that still have a prominent contradiction between supply and demand are expected to have the opportunity to rebound or continue the maverick strong market. We predict that the order of the strength of the commodity sector is roughly as follows: black series > agricultural products > non-ferrous metals > chemical industry > energy > precious metals.

In the trading strategy recommended in the previous period, Tianjiao empty order can stop the profit and leave the market, the multiple orders of copper will continue to hold, and soybean oil will consider to re-enter the market after losing more than one order.