In the short-term energy outlook report released on Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration ((EIA)) raised the global crude oil demand this year and the international oil price forecast for this year and next, and lowered the US crude oil production forecast. The agency predicts that Americans eager to travel will face the highest gasoline prices in the same period since 2018 this summer.
EIA raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2021 by 180000 b / d to 5.5 million b / d and lowered its 2022 oil demand growth forecast by 180000 b / d to 3.65 million b / d.
The agency expects US crude oil production to be 11.04 million b / d in 2021, down 110000 b / d from its previous forecast of 11.15 million b / d, and 11.86 million b / d in 2022, down 160000 b / d from its previous forecast of 12.02 million b / d.
Despite the rise in oil prices, US oil production has grown slowly as large listed companies maintain capital constraints and retain cash under pressure from investors. EIA's forecast covers a 800000 b / d decline in US crude oil production in February, mainly because much of the country is affected by low temperatures, particularly in Texas.
Raise the forecast of international oil prices this year and next.
EIA also raised its international oil price forecast for this year and next. The price of WTI crude oil in 2021 is estimated to be 58.89 US dollars per barrel, 1.65 US dollars per barrel higher than the previous forecast of 57.24 US dollars per barrel, 56.74 US dollars per barrel in 2022, and 1.99 US dollars per barrel higher than the previous forecast of 54.75 US dollars per barrel.
The agency expects Brent crude to be $62.28 a barrel in 2021, up $1.61 from its previous forecast of $60.67 and $60.49 in 2022, up $1.98 from its previous forecast of $58.51.
Gasoline prices this summer will be the highest in the same period since 2018.
More than a year after the outbreak, Americans eager to travel will face the highest gasoline prices in the same period since 2018 this summer.
Us summer gasoline prices are expected to rise more than 30 per cent year-on-year, driven by higher crude oil prices and an increase in the number of tourists, according to the EIA report. The agency expects the average retail price of gasoline to be $2.78 a gallon from April to September, up from $2.07 in the summer of 2020, when the epidemic led to a reduction in travel.
EIA also predicts that US gasoline consumption will increase this summer from a year earlier, but will not return to 2019 levels, rising from 7.81 million barrels a day last year to 8.84 million barrels a day in April-September. Gasoline consumption will peak in August, reaching 9.1 million barrels a day in 2021.
While Covid-19 will continue to affect the oil market this summer, more vaccination and US fiscal stimulus will support the economic recovery and boost demand growth, the agency said.
International oil prices rose on Tuesday, buoyed by strong economic data from the us and china, and were up 1 per cent by the end of the day after the report was released.
International oil prices continued to rise in the Asian market on Wednesday. So far, us crude oil futures are up $0.04, or 0.07%, at $59.37 a barrel, while Brent oil futures are up $0.15, or 0.24%, at $62.81 a barrel.
![Platinum Prices Held Up Well Intraday, Spot Discounts Remained Basically Flat, and Overall Trading Was Sluggish [SMM Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/fNuSg20251217171735.jpg)