Domestic alumina prices to rise slightly, high sea freight continues to suppress buying interest and prices overseas

SHANGHAI, Mar 31 (SMM)—Trades were muted in the domestic alumina market last week. Prices in the northern and south-western regions were little changed. Transactions in Shanxi and Henan were done at 2,340-2,350 yuan/mt based on rigid demand, and those in Guangxi and Guizhou were 2,320-2,340 yuan/mt, with limited trading volume.

Some aluminium smelters have shown greater buying interest following delivery of orders received before CNY and due to limited arrivals of imported alumina, which may lift alumina prices in the short term. However, the upside room of alumina prices may be limited as the current spot alumina market tends to shift to a surplus, leaving sellers’ bargaining power still weak.

In the overseas market, sea freight has been climbing steadily recently. Sea freight from Western and Eastern Australia to China’s major ports rose to $48/mt and $52/mt respectively, inhibiting global purchasing willingness. Chinese importers suffered a loss of 232 yuan/mt. Few aluminium smelters overseas made inquiries, except those in India and Malaysia that had urgent needs.

A deal for 30,000 mt of alumina was done at $274/mt FOB, down from $289/mt for the previous deal, for shipment from Western Australia to India in late April or early May. Due to the overall surplus market, rising sea freight weighed on FOB prices.

Domestic and overseas prices will bear little correlation in the short term, and price movement will continue to depend on supply-demand dynamics. In a market that is dominated by long-term orders, prices are likely to trade within a narrow range.