The crisis is far from over! Expert: the long Gift is free, but the supply chain chaos may last for months.

The giant freighter EVER GIVEN was rescued on Monday after cutting off traffic on the Suez Canal for six days, but experts warned that the impact of global trade disruptions could last for months.

Douglas Kent, executive vice president of (Association for Supply Chain Management) Strategy and Alliance, an American supply chain management association, said, "We may celebrate the success of the ship's shallowness and the lifting of the Suez Canal blockade, but this is not the end of the story. The port and other delivery mechanisms will certainly continue to have a backlog, and then there will naturally be chaos. "

It is understood that about 12% of the world's trade is conducted through giant ships such as the Changzhi (carrying 20,000 TEUs) only through the Suez Canal. The giant container ship stranded on the Suez Canal is estimated to be trading at an estimated $400m per hour based on the approximate value of cargo passing through the Suez Canal every day, according to shipping data and news company Lloyd's List.

"such a massive one-week interruption will continue to have a knock-on effect," said Stephen Flynn (Stephen Flynn), a political science professor at (Northeastern University) at Northeastern University. "it will take at least 60 days for things to be resolved and to get back to normal a little bit."

According to Flynn, this knock-on effect will include congestion at ports and the inability of ships to make their next voyage in the right place. Most importantly, it has further exacerbated tensions in the supply chain, where recent container shortages and port congestion have affected the buying spree during the post-novel coronavirus epidemic.

In addition, Flynn, founding director of (Global Resilience Institute) at the Global resilience Institute, points out that this is one of the challenges facing the "just-in-time" (just-in-time) system. For example, some assembly lines will be idle because the parts do not appear as expected.

"it's never been so serious before, it's going to take a long time, and they're just beginning to solve the problem. In essence, you've created this kind of traffic jam, and it doesn't allow you to just reset and restart-you have to restack and reset the system, which will require a lot of orchestration, "he added.

According to the Suez Canal Authority (Suez canal Authority), nearly 19000 ships passed through the Suez Canal in 2020, an average of 51.5 ships per day. In order to find efficient and low-cost goods, ships are getting bigger and bigger. Not all ports can accommodate ships of this size, thus forming a centralized system. In other words, smaller ports cannot digest scheduling conflicts caused by traffic jams on the Suez Canal.

Mark Sacconi (Mark Szakonyi), executive editor of (Journal of Commerce), a business journal owned by IHS Markit, said, "No matter how long it takes, the damage has been done. Airlines warn that supply chains are expected to be disrupted for months and capacity will be even tighter as Asian imports from Europe and North America surge. "

Looking ahead, however, experts disagree on how much impact this will eventually have on American consumers.

Jeffrey Bergstrand, a (Mendoza College of Business) professor of finance at Notre Dame's (University of Notre Dame) Mendoza School of Business, expects the impact to be minimal.

"the liberated tanker blocked the Suez Canal for about a week, which will only have a slight and temporary impact on the price of imported goods," he said. Since most of the imports blocked last week are sold to Europe, US consumers are unlikely to see any impact on the price of US imports unless the intermediate product of the US final product is made in Europe. "

Mr Flynn, on the other hand, said US oil prices were "almost certain" to rise as global interconnected supply chains continued to come under pressure. "this conveyor belt of the sea transport system transports products everywhere, which we take for granted to a large extent, until it suddenly stops," he said. . There will be many of these second-and third-order effects. "